New PPP Nat : Biden 53 Trump 42 - Asked who did you vote in 2016 Clinton 46/Trump 45

[sunonmars]

Link to tweet

This is a good interesting subset to ask to see where changes have occurred.

So according to this, Biden is doing 7% better than Clinton and Trump 3% less, from a 1 point lead to an 11% lead.

[dawg day]

1. Well over 50%.

Now we had that great disappointment in 2004, where Bush's people tore down Kerry so bad he never recovered, pretending the war hero was a coward and the AWOL guy (Bush) was the hero.

So we know the GOP can descend to the depths of hell and come back to fling all sorts of muck. They can do that again. Incumbency has enormous power, and so does inertia (as we chanted in 1972--
"Don't change Dicks in the middle of a screw, Nixon/Agnew in '72&quot .

But Trump's no good at being an incumbent. He doesn't use the power of the presidency to do much good for the states he needs to win. (Bush and Nixon were good at that.) So maybe his disregard for Americans other than himself will diminish the power of incumbency.

Anyway, over 50% is great at this point. Not many undecideds, and if all the undecideds went for Trump, he still wouldn't be close to 50% himself.

[spooky3]

2. We still have to be wary not only about how early it is but that third party votes and non-voters

may play a big role as they did in 2016.

[dawg day]

3. And in those important states-- Michigan, Pennsylvania

we'll see how many malcontents just want to throw away their votes. I hope not as many as last time. It's too much to expect that they would have learned their lesson in 2016.

[JonLP24]

4. Non-voters are mixed politically

Some of them even want a Wall.

What do Non-voters want

(snip)

Nonvoters are, in fact, somewhat more likely than voters to be brown or black: While 10 percent of voters are black, 13 percent of nonvoters are. And while 11 percent of voters are Hispanic, 15 percent of nonvoters are. But among nonvoters, the overall share of people of color is quite small: Nearly two out of every three nonvoters are white.

Nonvoters are also far less progressive than is commonly believed. They are more likely than voters to support constructing a wall on the southern border with Mexico, less likely to support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, less likely to support abortion rights, and less likely to favor gun control. Nonvoters do skew left on some important economic issues, such as support for a higher minimum wage. But on the defining cultural issues of the moment, they are markedly more conservative.

In light of their views on public policy, it is hardly surprising that nonvoters are not particularly likely to describe themselves as liberal or to say that they favor the Democratic Party. Among voters, 38 percent consider themselves Democrats and 30 percent Republicans, for a differential of eight points. Among nonvoters, 31 percent consider themselves Democrats and 26 percent Republicans, for a differential of only five points. The ideological breakdown of nonvoters is even more revealing: A clear majority of them consider themselves either moderate or conservative; only one in five say that they are liberal.

Nor is there much evidence that nonvoters are particularly energized to remove Donald Trump from office. They are less likely than voters to say that the country is going in the wrong direction or to believe that the upcoming election holds more importance than previous ones. And whereas 46 percent of all voters say that they are likely to vote for the Democratic Party’s nominee, only 33 percent of nonvoters say they’ll vote this way if they choose to go to the polls.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/truth-about-non-voters/607051/

[qazplm135]

5. Seems to me like

It goes back to we are better off turning out our base than chasing after non voters or Trump voters.

[peggysue2]

6. Love seeing these polls for Biden at 50+%

He manages to keep these margins, we're looking at a clear rout. Still have 4 months to go, so there's every reason to stay sharp and keep pounding. But . . .

these polls put a big, ole grin on my face.



Beat 'em like a drum, Joe!