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[brooklynite]

Trump Has 91 Percent Chance of Winning Reelection: Political Science Professor

President Donald Trump is almost certain to win reelection in 2020, according to a political science professor whose “Primary Model” has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite Tuesday. He noted that his model, which he introduced in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome of all but two presidential elections in the last 108 years: “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”

The exceptions include John F. Kennedy’s election in 1960 and George W. Bush’s election in 2000, when Bush won a majority of the electoral college despite losing the popular vote.

Not only will Trump win, Norpoth’s model suggests, the president will expand his margin in the Electoral College from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020. That would be nearly identical to the 365 electoral votes former President Barack Obama won in 2008.

https://www.mediaite.com/news/trump-has-91-percent-chance-of-winning-reelection-political-science-professor/

[Nevilledog]

1. And how does this model handle an ongoing pandemic and increasing racist rhetoric?

I don't buy it for a second.

[Hoyt]

2. Someone actually alerted on this, even with your headline. Jeeeez.

[Captain Stern]

6. That's ridiculous. There should be a way to 'alert' on 'alerts'. n/t

[Hoyt]

7. I agree. I've alerted on one post here, and it was one of mine that I

thought better of after an hour or so.

Obviously, there are some that deserve it, particularly threats or outright lies about Democrats. But, as long as we can comment in opposition, alerts should be rare.

[tritsofme]

9. I got the JD for this post, smh.

[Polybius]

10. Wow

Very surprising, wonder why.

[jayfish]

3. Hyperbole Aside.

That really is one of the dumbest damn things I've read in my life.

[Newest Reality]

4. Psst! Hypertrump Mania will win in the third race at 30 to 1 odds. Bet on it.

[Demsrule86]

5. He is a Trumper and a Fox guy...you do know this right?

Here is what he said after the 2017 elections..

"Hence when it comes to personal legacies, the Democrats who won governorships in Virginia and New Jersey this month owe a big thank you to the respective incumbent of their states. It was not just Trump. All in all, with local factors in play and no Democratic surge evident in Virginia and New Jersey, the recent elections were no catastrophe for Trump and the GOP, nor the beginning of a golden era for the Democratic Party.

Helmut Norpoth is professor of political science at Stony Brook Universty" And a Trumper!

[JHB]

8. If models were god then most engineering disasters would never have happened

Architects and engineers make a lot of calculations (modeling) when designing things. It's relatively rare for them to simply be wrong.

What happens more often is that the assumptions of those models cease to reflect reality. Sometimes it's because the design pushes the envelope and factors that hadn't been major considerations in earlier designs manifest themselves in a bigger way than expected. Just ask "Galloping Girtie", the Tacoma Narrows Bridge.

The other most common reason is changes, intended or unintended, to the design specs. Substandard materials, construction crews using different techniques than were stipulated, etc.

In circumstances like that, reality falls outside the parameters used by the model. And when that happens, reality wins, the model loses, and things fall down.

[fishwax]

11. Given that the model relies on early primary results, I'm not overly concerned

That's not to say the election is in the bag or that we should let up in any way. Stay vigilant, etc.

But there are enough exceptional circumstances to explain both the fact of Biden's poor performance in the early primaries (the hugely crowded field and the fact that there were more candidates jockeying for position in his lane as opposed to Sanders/Warren) and its significance (the general unity of cause among the party right now and trump's huge disapproval ratings overall) that I can't be feel too worried about a model that's organized around it.

There is a lot of time between now and the election, of course, and I suppose that anything could happen ... but for trump to get to 362 would take some pretty historic seismic events, even by 2020 standards.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

12. Let me just say this.

If Trump wins this election, there is clearly no point in researching countries to move to, as no one else will be willing to accept us. Instead, I'll be researching painless suicide.