In 2016 Hillary had the mantle of the so called "Known Quantity" in the race.

[Tom Rinaldo]

In the final weeks of the campaign previously undecided voters, those who had "reservations" about both Trump and Clinton, broke decisively for Trump. Trump, for them, was less tightly defined than Hillary Clinton. That left them freer to project onto Trump their own hopes for how he would actually act in office if he was elected, which left most late deciders deciding for Donald Trump

When folks become dissatisfied/disillusioned with a "known quantity" they are more prone to try something different. This time around, after putting himself at the center of the narrative of everything that happens in the world, Trump overwhelmingly is the relative known quantity in this race. This at a time when belief that America is "on the wrong track" is cresting and reality for most Americans is still deteriorating. That won't hurt Trump with his core humpers, but Biden is already flirting with if not surpassing the 50% mark in presidential polls. Biden doesn't need for the majority of late deciding voters to break toward him. But they will.

The contours of this race are now set in concrete. Americans don't need to believe Joe Biden is better than sliced bread in order to vote for him, they just have to be dissatisfied with Trump's leadership. And if nothing else (though there is plenty else) Trump's failed stewardship of the Covid-19 crisis has made that conclusion inevitable. And every increasingly desperate attempt Trump makes to deflect public attention away from his mismanagement of the pandemic just underscores the fact that he isn't leading us out of it.

[Demsrule86]

1. You knocked this one out of the park. K&R

[Tom Rinaldo]

2. Thanks. Our goal now has to be the total repudiation of everything Trump stands for

Of course Trump's defeat is the essential minimal expression of that, but it isn't enough in itself. So mush must be done to heal our nation, and not just from the massive damage Trump has facilitated. The courts have skewed right for decades. Income inequality has grown for decades. Racism has been tolerated for decades.

I am not much worried about possible over confidence hurting our chances to defeat Trump. I am more worried about us having insufficient confidence in our ability to seize this moment to remake American politics, and showing insufficient will to do just that. The fact that Trump is almost certainly going down does not lessen our political burden. This is a generational moment. Just like there were Black Lives Matter actions in small towns and cities all across this nation there must be a solid repudiation of the Republican agenda in towns and cities all across this nation. It is not enough to just knock it down, a wooden stake must be driven through it's heart.

With the opportunity we are being presented the need for us to mobilize is heightened by the prospect of victory

[still_one]

3. 11 days before the election Comey sent a letter to the republicans in Congress, and for the

next several days the illustrious media said the "email" investigation was reopened. That was a LIE, and they paraded every right wing pundit across the various media outlets propagating that LIE.

The OPs last two paragraphs are right on target

[Wellstone ruled]

4. The E-Mail Letter

was the real Change Agent.

Those who were on the fence so to speak,either broke for Trump or,or out of discuss,stayed home.

At our Phone Banking Office,we did debriefs daily during the last seven days of the campaign. Have to say,the combination of Comey and the Media pile on was coming back in phone contact feedback. The final Weekend was absolutely brutal,especially in the Midwestern States.


Trump is counting on a similiar Story line to happen and he is working the Refs to make it happen.

[Tom Rinaldo]

7. Of course Trump is counting on something like that

My OP discusses why it won't work no matter how hard he may try. The fundamentals of this election are starkly different.

[Wellstone ruled]

19. One major difference this time

is all the miss info on Social Media. Four years ago it was coming into its own so to speak.

People are darn frustrated with what info they are getting from Main Stream Media. If it bleeds it leads and the rest is just filler along with commercials.

[Tom Rinaldo]

20. I think that's baked into his core support, it's largely how he manages to hold onto them

It helps explain why almost nothing can move his approval rating much below 40% when it should be in the low 30's at most right now. Trump has to get more and more extreme with his conspiratorial world view to keep them hooked, and that may work fine for them but that type of extremism cuts off avenues to other voters that he needs to add onto his base. Especially when it is obviously what he remains focused on while most of the nation worries about the economy and Covid-19.

[still_one]

9. Same experience I had at the phone banking center I was at

[H2O Man]

13. "stayed home"

With those two words, you identified the exact influence of the e-mails that resulted in Trump's "victory."

[Wellstone ruled]

21. Just for the Ha-ha's,

our group did a follow on with our Registered Dem Voter lists. Here in Nevada we had a hell of a Vote total lead because of early voting and those votes dropped pre Comey.

I canvased the local Valley first have of the day,and out-state the back side of the day. Just blown away by the number of non voters who told us in previous weeks they were on board and were going to vote for Clinton as well as Dem State and local Candidates. Next day,did Wisconsin,Minnesota and South Dakota,wow,eye opening,Stein pulled way to many committed as well as so many stay at homers.

All it takes is one ugly surprise timed with the help of piling on by your Corporate Media.

[Tom Rinaldo]

5. Of course that was a LIE, one that was strategically manipulated for maximum damage to her

My OP intentionally does not address how and by whom negative impressions were fostered onto Clinton. Nor, for that matter, does it address how adverse publicity over Trump's pussy grabbing tape affected him. It isn't relevant to the point I was making. For this discussion what is relevant is that both Trump and Clinton had overall negative public approval ratings in the weeks before the election. We both agree that Trump fully earned his negative ratings personally, while in Hillary's case overt sexism and decades of GOP attacks on her took an unfair toll. Be that as it may, to the general public Clinton was overall perceived as more of a known quantity than Trump, even if most of what they thought they knew about her were total lies.

[still_one]

11. I understand

[Wellstone ruled]

23. As my old

Poly Sci Prof once said,both parties control 45% of the vote,it is the mussy 10% in the middle one party or other has to capture in order to win.

In the last month of 2016 campaign,our feedback was showing what you mention only in a very small amount.

Party Seniority,or as they say,it is his or hers turn came back to bite us big time in several Elections in Minnesota years ago. And as a post moratorium to 2016,what you mentioned was their as some of us noticed,but plowed straight ahead,the painting by Media and the RNC for the Honesty of Clinton had sounds of the Arkansas Project . One could smell Conway and Mercer's body odor all over it.

[StevieM]

25. Exactly. The timing of Comey's letter, and the "reopening" of the so-called investigation, was not

really bad luck for Hillary.

It was deliberately designed that way. Probably years in advance.

[H2O Man]

6. Recommended.

Outstanding! You nailed it!

[Aristus]

8. I'm not sure I agree Trump was an 'unknown quantity'.

The only difference between Trump then and Trump now is the power of the Presidency. Absolutely everyone who voted for Trump knew exactly who and what he was before they voted for him. Anyone who says differently is lying through their rotted meth-mouth teeth...

[LiberalFighter]

12. That is true. There really wansn't anything unknown about him.

The public just wanted to ignore it.

[Tom Rinaldo]

14. Relatively? For most people compraed to Hillary Clinton? Of course he was.

Granted that most everyone, including his voters, probably knew that he personally was an asshole. Some loved his unedited racism, others thought his extremes would be softened somewhat by the regular party apparatus and stalwarts. Far from everyone knew that Trump was as totally incompetent as he is, or that he wouldn't let those who had at least minimal actual competence keep the train on the tracks for him.

[Aristus]

15. Unless those with minimal competence had something to gain from Trump's incompetence.

Such as tax cuts and open racism.

[Tom Rinaldo]

17. True. And I will freely admit that even I didn't expect them to be this complicit

Plenty in the GOP upper echelons had much to gain from greed, that one didn't surprise me. I was caught somewhat flatfooted by their rolling over for Trump's National Security abdication Putin love fest however. And while plenty of privileged Republicans had much to gain by pushing covert racist policies, mostly they don't want to be pictured wearing actual KKK garb, they pay a needless price for that when a touch of subtlety can get they pretty much the same rewards.

And almost none of them, even the racist greedy bastards, literally come out ahead by Trump totally botching the Covid-19 pandemic.

[LiberalFighter]

10. I never understand that.

They know about the known quantity and have concerns.

But the unknown they feel better?

[betsuni]

16. Trump has been a tabloid celebrity since the eighties. He's a known quantity.

[Tom Rinaldo]

18. In a binary face off, which is what a presidential election is, he was the lesser known quantity.n/t

[ismnotwasm]

22. Trump was a well known "outsider"

Not a known “political” figure although he had been coy with the idea, as well as racist as fuck and a misogynistic asshole. Still is.


Millions of people voted for this.
Let me repeat that. Millions of people voted for this.

Millions didn’t bother to vote. Thousands, some in crucial areas voted third party.

2016 was an epic clusterfuck, with arguments against the “status quo” and cries for “economic” (social justice being something that would follow a great revolution of economics. Or something) and as far as I’m concerned the defining elements were absolutely blatant racism and sexism.

So, the revolution is encased in movements like BLM, as well far too many dead Black bodies, missing indigenous women, health discrepancies for POC.

No amount of economic justice was ever going to slow that down. Not in time to save lives.

Trump was definitely “known” as well as admired.

[Tom Rinaldo]

24. Did I say he was unknown figure? No I did not.

Millions also voted for George Wallace when he ran for President in 1968 (and some of those people actually voted for Bobby Kennedy in the primaries before voting for Wallace in the General). There are lots of fucked up people in America and likely there always will be. Plus there are others who are hopelessly confused.

Sometimes simply the label of "outsider" swings some votes in politics.