How does Trump potentially win a second term?

[Proud Liberal Dem]

Aside from outright rigging/cheating in this election (which I don't want to get into here), is there ANYTHING substantive that could potentially change between now and Election Day that would be either extraordinarily beneficial to Trump to help him win re-election or extraordinarily damaging to Biden that would depress his vote and cause him to lose? Any other complicating factors (i.e. additional "major party" candidates joining the race) that could cause the polls to tighten or make the margin close enough for Trump to limp to re-election? At the moment, the race appears to be Biden's to lose, but we're still fairly far enough out that anything could still happen and I'm trying to maintain some perspective.

[soothsayer]

1. This?

Link to tweet

?s=21

“Republican voter registration is way up, Democrat numbers are down.”

[Proud Liberal Dem]

5. Possibly

Skeptical because of it being from Politico and somebody pointed out that the actual story was not nearly as alarming as the headline indicated.

[soothsayer]

12. O thank Buddha

[Aristus]

13. Can't that just be because most Democrats are already registered?

I suspect that most supporters of the Democratic Party have been registering steadily over the last four years as they hit eighteen, looking forward to voting Trump out, whereas Republican-leaning non-voters are scrambling to register to vote for Trump as his poll-numbers crater. That could account for the surge.

[soothsayer]

15. Ooh I hope so

[Me.]

18. And Yet His Numbers Are Shrinking

his reasoning doesn't compute

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1016&pid=261911

[brush]

22. Says the biggest known liar in the world quoting his state propaganda network.

This time trump has to run on his record, not against "crooked" Hillary (his words), and that record includes 130,000 covid deaths and counting because of his inept response to the virus crisis, massive unemployment because of his inept response to the virus crisis, no response to Russian bounties on the heads of our troops, and did I mention his blatant corruption in commuting the sentence of convicted felon Roger Stone.

I could go on plenty but it take a while, but this gives a good illustration of what record trump is running on.

IMO he's toast.

[redstatebluegirl]

2. If we get cocky and don't show up again.

That is what happened the last time. I think it would take something really awful for people to turn on Biden, but I could be wrong. I can't see him doing anything as bad as trump.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

7. For the past 4 years

Trump has always seemed to be able to negatively define people to his advantage, although I'm not seeing any evidence that this is working against Biden so far.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

14. Agreed on this

Was that what happened in 2016, though? Trump's base and Republicans were highly energized to vote for him and a lot of Indies just couldn't stomach voting for HRC, especially with Comey's last minute dramatic "re-opening" of the e-mail scandal.

[sunonmars]

3. I'm convinced the dial on most POTUS elections are set well before election day.

Incumbents have to prove they are well liked and done a good job and Trump is just not very likeable, he has stressed everyone out to a point where people just want him to go away......

A lot of them gave him in a chance in 2016 and a lot do not like what they have seen. Plus with all the sexism, that does not exist this year like it did in 2016.

Its a lot harder to beat an incumbent if they are moderately doing a half way decent job......thats not happening here.

[Stuart G]

16. Trump is hated for doing a terrible job..(one that has killed thousands)

As you said, the dial is already set for Biden's win. Nothing Trump can do to stop it.

[LonePirate]

4. County election offices can reject ballots due to unmatched signatures, whether real or not.

Enormous numbers of mailed and absentee ballots are being rejected this year due to signatures that don’t match. It is very easy to impose a rigid standard on signature matching, or to simply reject them for no reason at all (or voting for the other party) and claim a signature does not match.

[jimfields33]

9. My county must send a letter that day and let you know that signatures don't match

I know someone that had this happen. They went in and resigned. Easy.

[LonePirate]

19. Your county is the exception and not the rule. Many counties in the newer mail states do not.

The newer states are the swing states so we need to be vigilant here.

[jimfields33]

6. Economy and virus will dictate and today doesn't matter September does.

Early voting starts beginning October in a lot of area so times ticking and don’t see major changes in either area.

Every democratic supporter must vote!!!!

[jalan48]

8. Fraud and chaos in the country.

[still_one]

10. They are betting that a vaccine will pull them through, and much of Wall Street is trying to talk up

a V recovery hoping that will do it

It will be his same con game, it is everyone else’s faults

[lagomorph777]

29. Vaccine and economic recovery will not happen until well into the Biden administration.

So their hopes make no sense.

Only Putin can save Turd now.

[California_Republic]

11. Bull horn moment

[dalton99a]

17. Problem is W was still a relative unknown in 2001 and Americans were not as polarized

[tinrobot]

28. Covid was his bullhorn moment.

If he had stepped up to the plate, he could have rallied the country behind him. It really would have helped his chances.

He failed miserably.

[lagomorph777]

30. He didn't fail; most just don't understand that mass murder has been his goal.

He's part of Putin's Pay For Slay program.

[ibegurpard]

20. Voter suppression in key states

[Baclava]

21. Aliens land on WH lawn and declare Trump "best earth leader, ever", so no, he's doomed

[sarisataka]

23. Very easily

Anything that makes it inconvenient to vote will make a person question if they really need to cast a ballot. It could be too cold, rainy, the line is long, I have to drive to the post office to mail the ballot... this list is long.

Most people will still vote if they have the habit of voting. However if a few days before the election a voter who has heard their candidate has a 99% chance of winning, a less dedicated voter may decide their individual vote really isn't that important and will skip the inconvenience.

If enough people decide the candidate who is going to win in a landslide isn't worth the inconvenience then the landslide doesn't happen. It may be just enough to switch a state leaning one way to flip to the other party. Given our winner-take-all system there is a huge consequence to such a switch.

Then there are always the possible surprises that can come up at the last minute to affect voter's opinions. What that may be isn't known now, that is why it is a surprise.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

32. Do you think that people are going feel as blase about voting this year

as opposed to 2016? I'm going to risk going to the polls if I need to in order to get rid of Trump (even though I live in Indiana, which is probably going for Trump- not going to make their job easier, though)

[sarisataka]

40. You are going to vote, as am I,

Because we are those who vote in every election. I am willing to bet most of DU is the same. Being members of such a group can give the impression that is the norm. It is not, we are in the minority.

The majority of eligible voters belong to two groups. The first group is those who vote occasionally. They vote typically only in the 'big' elections, i.e. the Presidential election. However if it is too much trouble, they may choose to skip that election. If they hear their preferred candidates are way ahead in the polls, it is much easier to self justify they are 'just one vote'. These are the people we must push to GOTV: even in 2020 they may be blade.

The second group is those who rarely, or never, vote for whatever reason. It is always worth trying to encourage them to vote but likely they will be the plurality of eligible voters. Again.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

44. True

[stillcool]

24. He doesn't..

just like he didn't the last time around. However, people will be pushing different narratives suggesting that he can win, so the perception is that it is possible. Once that perception is repeated so much that it becomes a reality, they're good to go. Lie, cheat, and steal until the dirty deed is done. If all else fails, they may have to resort to different methods we have not yet seen. He can win, but not by counting votes.

[BannonsLiver]

25. I can see by the responses people didn't get your point

So as far as my take here are a couple:

1. There could be a vaccine breakthrough that he takes credit for in a way that people believe he had something to do with it. (Unlikely)

2. He could move marijuana off schedule 1 in a tactical move to win some people on the margins back to his side. (Unlikely)

Those are two things off the top of my head. I don’t think either would come close to being what he’s going to need, though.

[LisaL]

34. He can claim vaccine breakthrough, no way that

vaccine can be proven safe and effective before the election.

[BannonsLiver]

39. I'll leave it up to the scientists to determine what's safe and what isn't

We know human trials are underway now. Some of the results may or may not be known before the election. Experts have said it’s unlikely there is a vaccine available before early next year.

I’m not talking about you but we have many armchair epidemiologists here. Unlike them I try stick to what’s been reported.

[Tercules]

26. Something triggers mass nationwide riots, and/or a liberal SCOTUS judge dies, near election day.

But really I think it's a foregone conclusion. Trump won due to a narrow margin in rust belt states. Manufacturing didn't come back. Coal didn't come back. To many, Trump is a failed middle-finger-at-Washington experiment. Moreover, a good portion of centrist and independent trump voters were more anti-Hillary than pro-Trump. Biden doesn't inspire the same level of vitriol. Add in his complete bungling of coronavirus, something that older (and very reliable) voters are concerned about, and I just think reelection is one in a million.

[lagomorph777]

31. Mass nationwide riots have worked against Trump.

More of that would not be helpful to him.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

27. Here's One Thing You Can Take To The Bank

They will NOT find any kind of dirt on Biden that will knock him down in the polls. If anything like that existed, the Obama team would have found it in 2008 when they vetted him extensively for the VP spot. There just ain't no such animal. The Trump slime team will likely try to INVENT something, but like all the previous times they've tried this tactic, it will go nowhere.

So take comfort in the fact that the ONLY way Trump can reverse this trend is to start doing things really, really right from now to November. And I think we all know that Trump is incapable of that.

[dawg]

37. They'll just make it up, Broc.

And we'll be damned lucky if the media doesn't hammer us with it 24/7.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

43. The million dollar question would be though

what could Trump, et. al dream up that would literally be worse than anything he's done or been accused of doing in the past 4 years? And trying to get over 130K dead on your watch and you've literally had a horrible record in dealing with it seems fairly insurmountable. It's a unique situation, of course, but I bet that just about any other President would have taken it more seriously and handled it better than he has.

[LisaL]

33. Because of covid, people are afraid to vote.

Or not able to, because most voting locations are closed.

[Polybius]

42. If God-forbid he had to exit in October, it would he a mess

Bernie would understandably say the nomination should go to him, since he came in second. Biden's VP pick would say it should go to her since she was his running mate (also understandable). Personally, I'd go with a seasoned candidate, Hillary Clinton.

[dawg]

38. He can win by a combination of disinformation and voter supression.

The Russians and the billionaires will promote all sorts of fake "scandals" aimed at discrediting Biden and his running mate, and promoting disunity within the Democratic Party.

Republican officials will make it harder for minorities and other Democraic-leaning groups to vote. They'll force many of us to risk our lives in long, crowded lines at the polling places (while those in the McMansion neighborhoods and hillbilly enclaves can just walk right in).

And all he has to do is to hang on to one of those three states he flipped last time. Just one of them.

Of course, if we stick to our guns and don't fall for their tricks, it could get pretty ugly for them. Our odds are better than theirs right now.

But it's far from safe.

[Polybius]

41. Only if something real nasty comes out on Biden in October or if he takes extreme positions

I doubt they will find anything though, Joe's been a great family man all of his life.

Likewise, if Biden said "I support people tearing down statutes of racists like Columbus and the Founding Fathers" he'd be done. Thankfully he opposes extremism.

[uponit7771]

46. +1, nasty like in Biden ate puppy ears and it has to be on video and he has to like it

[uponit7771]

45. Killing as many non-whites people as possible

[sparky999]

47. A couple things

I don't think it's in the bag for the following reasons.

1) DNC needs to run a better campaign than in 2016. Don't ignore the swing states. (I don't believe the polls. They were wrong last time.)

2) Don't get complacent. Biden isn't Bill Clinton or Obama. Those were candidates that people could get excited about. Get behind Biden and let others know.

3) I worry about all the ads the R's are running that question Biden's metal state. Some independents will be swayed. I think Biden should avoid the spotlight until the election.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

49. My thoughts

1. This was such a widespread assessment from 2016 that I don't think Biden/DNC is going to make the same mistake twice or at least no evidence that they are ignoring/will ignore them.
2. True but he still does have some of Obama's glow on him or at least makes people feel nostalgic for the comparatively calm and stable Obama/Biden years and hopefully induces people to chuck the orange chaos agent.
3. I don't get the sense that people buy into this much. Whenever Biden has presented himself, he's handled himself well. Yeah, he makes gaffes here and there but line up him and Trump together and the person with the more questionable mental state clearly seems to be Trump.

[sparky999]

50. Still not certain of victory

I wish I could be as optimistic as some here. I still remember HRC polling 6-7% ahead right before the election. I remember going to bed on election night with a comfortable lead and the networks about to call it.

Then I remember waking up the next morning to learn who our new president was.

I don't trust the polls. I think there are a lot of Trump supporters to embarrassed to admit it to pollsters.

[spanone]

48. He Cheats.