Is Texas electoral fools gold?

[redstateblues]

I think it’ll be another few cycles before we Dems will have a real shot at Texas.

[brokephibroke]

1. I don't know

It may be winnable with a huge GOTV effort now.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Yes

They will not allow enough minorities to vote for Biden to win it.

Win WI, MI, and PA!

[JoeOtterbein]

3. Don't know either. But I do know that here in PA...

...we need more campaign gold!

[Amishman]

29. PA will be interesting, I'm not sure which way this state will go

In Feb I was certain it would go blue, but Wolf's Covid response has been clumsy but at the same time weakly enforced; upsetting everyone in one way or another. Has really motivated conservatives and done some damage to our party's brand.

[kimbutgar]

4. Yes they got the voter suppression down to an art and don't get me started on how they count the

Vote especially in 2016.

[Midnight Writer]

5. No, it's worth a shot. Even working towards future cycles means we need to build in Texas now.

The Republicans are apparently concerned, because they are spending a lot of cash and manpower in Texas.

[Stallion]

15. Especially Since this is Congressional Redistricting Year

[lagomorph777]

37. Also, if we can spare some support there, it forces Turd to expend resources.

[FBaggins]

6. Of course

If we win Texas we will have taken forty other states first. There’s no reason to spend significant resources there.

IOW... it is like PA was for Trump

[bottomofthehill]

7. The great white whale.

Focus on what is winnable and needed to win.

[LonePirate]

8. We're not competing in TX to win the state. We're competing to flip the TX State House chamber.

If Dems carry the same districts that voted for Beto, the chamber flips from red to blue this year. Biden winning the state would just be a cherry on top of that delicious sundae.

[vercetti2021]

9. Add Cornyn losing on top as the hot fudge

But wishful thinking

[AleksS]

19. And if we control the state house now, we control redistricting

And that could add up to a 10 year advantage.

[Stallion]

21. In a State Like Texas that Could be 6-8 US House Seats too

[vercetti2021]

22. It was what 100 to 46 in 2010?

You can't deny the drastic shift in just 10 years. Texas will flip its inevitable

[Laelth]

10. Probably.

But Joe’s coattails could be enormous. This could be a landslide election. Nearly anything is possible, but I am afraid to hope.

-Laelth

[Doodley]

11. These aren't ordinary times. Texas has been badly hit by the virus, and it will get worse.

[Wounded Bear]

12. Maybe, but if we're forcing Repubs to spend there...

it's all good. Resources they can't use elsewhere.

And who knows, you can't win if you don't even run.

[Demsrule86]

13. This year is unlike any other year. Consider VA turned blue in 08...

during an economic debacle...we have a pandemic and an economic debacle this year. It could happen. The numbers are very encouraging.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

14. WINNING Texas Isn't The Point

Yeah, it would be nice. But making Trump defend States that he can ordinarily count on winning by double digits drains his time and money that he would usually use to flood swing States with ads and appearances. If he has to dump millions of campaign dollars into defending Texas, it's a win whether or not it actually turns blue. Now add Georgia and Arizona to the mix and things get really interesting. It would be like if we woke up tomorrow and Trump was ahead in California. It would be an "Oh Shit" moment like no other. And it is for him too. That's why he's unraveling right now. He's knows what's about to happen.

[Ohio Joe]

24. Correct...

And well said

[Awsi Dooger]

16. We could possibly win Texas if Biden wins nationally by 8+

I think that's very unlikely to happen. The race will naturally tighten during fall.

I estimate at least 12-16 years before Texas votes in parity with the nation. That's how long these shifts take when the starting point is 42 or 43% conservatives in the state. It's silly to subjectively pretend otherwise.

But these links are interesting. Go to "Political Orientation" in each one, noting the surge in Texans willing to call themselves some type of liberal now compared to June 2016. The 3 liberal categories jump from 18% to 33% in 4 years while moderates plunge from 39% to 24% and conservatives less extreme but holding steady at 43% compared to 44% in 2016:

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/sites/texaspolitics.utexas.edu/files/201606_poll_uttt_topline_final.pdf

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/sites/texaspolitics.utexas.edu/files/202006_poll_topline.pdf

[GeorgiaPeanut]

17. Trump was never as popular in Texas as in Alabama or Georgia

We have a 50:50 shot

[JCMach1]

18. Yes, we might win this time but only in a 400 or so EV blowout

so pretty meaningless... if that takes Cornyn as well then we might be getting somewhere...

[In It to Win It]

20. I agree. I don't see us winning until at least 2024

I hope I’m wrong but I don’t see Texas in the cards for us in 2020.

[Xolodno]

25. Sometimes, you fight battles that you fully expect to lose.

But, those battles drain the resources of the enemy to fight more pivotal battles.

So for every dollar spent, if they have to spend two...that's one dollar they can't spend in a battleground state.

Now they can choose to ignore it, but then it gives us an opening to actually win it....so they have to defend....even if its a token fight. Plenty of castles have been lost due to sleeping guards.

[xmas74]

30. This.

The GOP has to spend money in Missouri they hadn't planned because the gubernatorial race went from Parsons with a 20 point advantage to now being in a dead heat with the Democratic Galloway. Add in large campaign drives by Elad Gross (AG) and Yinka Faleti (SoS) and they're getting scared. Add to it Trump winning by 20 points in 2016 and is now only up by 6.

Biden won't win Missouri but the GOP is very afraid of the down ticket right now. Make them spend the money.

[Dave in VA]

26. Think of it in the political sense

The one who plants trees, knowing that he will never sit in their shade, has at least started to understand the meaning of life.”
— Rabindranath Tagore

Before you harvest the crop you have to till the soil, plant the seed, water and remove the weeds. So maybe Joe and his team are tilling the soil.

Just my $0.02

[Spider Jerusalem]

27. TX and GA are stretch goals, MI, PA, WI and FL are very possible though (n/t)

[Awsi Dooger]

28. Florida needs to be the big push

The state under performs because the Democratic operation has been incompetent for a full decade. Granted it's a difficult state to maximize but at least make an attempt. I have many Cuban neighbor friends and they all tell me the same thing, that Republican ads are always on Spanish media compared to virtually zero for Democrats, and the Republicans commercials are more effective anyway.

Florida at 37% conservatives is much more gettable than Texas at 43% conservatives. I hope Biden and crew understand that. Polling should be totally ignored in comparison to ideology, which tells the tale. Hillary lost in 2016 largely because she relied on polling and not the ideological realities, which would have screamed that Wisconsin and Michigan were vulnerable while Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona and Georgia were a waste of time.

Besides, Florida with an older population is naturally more favorable than 2016 because the Silent Generation is not as much of a factor. That small percentage change in itself could be the tipping point. Arizona will also swing in our favor due to the same variable. Texas has lots of senior citizens by raw numbers, but not in terms of percentage of the population or percentage of the electorate.

[NoPasaran]

31. Short answer: yes!

At the very best enough Texas House races could flip to regain control there after a couple of decades which would give us a seat at the redistricting table that will also allocate the new congressional seats that Texas will gain after the census. But don't expect Texas to turn blue any time soon.

In fact, I expect Dan "Grandma's expendable" Patrick to defeat Abbott in the 2022 primary and go on to be the next governor of this rightwing hellhole.

[edhopper]

32. Yes and no

But by Biden campaigning there and making it competitive, it forces Trump top also use resources in Texas. Trumps road to the Electoral College is very narrow, so this makes it harder for him to focus on the States he needs.

[Happy Hoosier]

33. Maybe? But...

It is always good to make your opponent fight to defend his or her turf. So long as they do not neglect the states we must win, I favor a foray into the Trump's back yard. The polls have been consistent.... Texas IS vulnerable, at least until polls revert to the mean (which they likely will).

[brooklynite]

34. I had a call from MJ Hagar last week...

She said the Biden campaign saw a path to wining Texas and was investing in it. I said I’d need to see harder data. Will check with my DNC sources when I get back from vacation.

[Liberal In Texas]

35. Well, as always around here, if we could get the registered dems out to vote

we'd be winning more elections. There is such apathy here. I suppose it comes from not thinking that one vote makes any difference and the repubs are just going to win anyway. And for so long the national dems have ignored Texas as a lost cause so it becomes a negative feedback loop.

But the cities are voting blue and the demographics are changing. Maybe this time? Hard to say, we've got several months to go yet.

[Music Man]

36. I think it's a worthy target.

Biden just went up with an ad there, and I don't think they'd be doing that if it were a waste of time.

In addition to the aforementioned reasons of making Trump spend resources there, there are a few reasons Democrats need to focus on Texas now:

For one thing, there's no doubt it has trended blue. There was a time that Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada were not in our column, but we slowly started racking up victories there, and now they've become Democratic states in so many ways, from local and state races to the federal elections. Texas could see a similar tipping point. If we do the work to have broad-based roots in the state, then we can ensure that Texas is a contender for us every year. Every year we advance the football in that state ensures that it can be ours for the long run.

The other thing is that Texas is the second largest state. It's not New York anymore. It's not Illinois or Florida. Texas is the almost brass ring with a mammoth 38 electoral votes (and 36 representatives). If Democrats control California, New York, and Texas, Republicans will have to re-think *everything*. They're certainly fucked in the Electoral College if that were ever the case.

Generally, population booms are happening in the South and Southwest. It's imperative that Democrats come up with a plan *now* for the re-alignment that's happening. What are we doing to win North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas solidly for the long run? What does it take to put Louisiana, Tennessee, and Arkansas back in the blue column? Because of shifting populations and demographics, it's not going to be enough to rely on Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

[grantcart]

38. No, TX is undergoing radical demographic change.

There are 200,000 more Hispanic voters A YEAR.

Currently Hispanics account for almost. 50% of TX population but only 26% of the vote.

If we can simply increase Hispanic turnout by 20% we would win TX

[SoonerPride]

39. It is worth fighting there to keep team trump on their heels

If they have to defend Texas they are losing.

Make them defend Texas, spend time, resources, money, on the state.

TAKE THE FIGHT TO THEIR TURF.