I feel more confident today than I did 4 years ago.

[Drunken Irishman]

I'm sure it's the exact opposite for a lot, if not most, of you.

But I was under no disillusions about the election. I knew it was dangerously close and that alone made Trump winning a real possibility.

I saw a lot of anti-Hillary hate out there. My twitter feed was constantly a mix of, "both are just awful" and it felt like many on the left were never going to come around to voting Hillary.

I recall watching the convention and seeing Bernie supporters openly jeer speakers and I got worried. I really started thinking this wasn't going the way it needed. It felt like a reverse 2012, where all the breaks were going against us.

It just did not feel like we had the good vibes on our side.

I felt like that for almost every day of every week from late spring until October that things were not right.

Then there was a brief moment in October, when the Access Hollywood tape dropped, where I felt some hope things would finally break our way.

It was fleeting.

A couple weeks later and the Comey Letter dropped.

I posted on DU as it did that Clinton's chances of winning were in serious doubt. It was the first time I had really openly, at least here, contemplated her losing. A lot pushed back, but a lot didn't. That made me feel uneasy even more.

Like I said, this was the reverse 2012 for me. Really, most that election, I thought Obama would win. Only once, in October, after his first debate performance, did I have doubts.

It was fleeting. By the second debate, I was cautious but comfortable.

So, 2020 feels different.

It feels like the good vibes are working with us now.

I don't see nearly as many people saying both candidates are awful. The media, now that they don't have Hillary to pick on, isn't out there pushing bullshit conspiracies about their health or playing out of context remarks or taking Trump like a joke candidate instead of a serious one.

Look, we can still lose this. A month in a campaign is an eternity, let alone four. I expect some dirty shit from Trump in the coming months.

But I don't feel the sense of dread like I did almost every moment of the 2016 campaign. Instead, I feel hope and I'm going to do everything I can to channel that hope into getting Biden elected in November.

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. I can't. Kerry's loss killed me.

[Mike 03]

2. Same here.

Our response on Twitter is 100 times better than it was in 2016, when I don't think we knew what to do about all the bots and lies. Now those tweets are being swarmed by furious Dems, and two days ago Steve Guest, one of Trump's "war room" cretins, had to delete two tweets because of the instant pushback.

Still, there are unpleasant surprises coming, of that I'm certain. I'm worried about a rush job documentary like they dropped in 2016 (remember "Clinton Cash&quot , or leaked forged documents (a la Wikileaks).

There are a lot of elements that makes this so much different than 2016. The unknowns, though, are worrying.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Agreed. Trump is more powerful than in 2016 so the unknown is much more significant.

[Mike 03]

5. But still, like you, I'm optimistic overall. We have so many allies we didn't expect, like Lincoln

Project, the other Republican groups, Mike Bloomberg... Our side is HUGE.

We're on our best game. I didn't feel that way in 2016, not at all.

[genxlib]

4. One thing about 2016 made me nervous

No matter how far Hillary was ahead in polls, she rarely broke 50%. That left a lot of wiggle room for those undeclared percentage points.

Polls with results over 50% feel a little more solid.

But I am not complacent. I will crawl through COVID infected hospital wards to vote.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Yes & it just wasn't that she failed to hit 50%, in many instances she was well below it.

We're talking no better than 45% on average nationally for a bulk of 2016.

[WhiteTara]

6. I'll gain confidence on January 22, 2021

until then, it's a minefield of unexploded ordinance.

[Eyeball_Kid]

7. While Trumpy-Boy has the bully pulpit and the tremendous power of media control,

his credibility has traveled to Death Valley on an empty tank, with no gas station in sight. And he knows it. So he'll be getting more frantic and more desperate, and, if possible, he'll become a caricature of himself that will elicit more laughter and derision than fear and loathing. I'm not sure how the whole of his campaign won't go that way.

[Akacia]

8. And yet

she did win the popular vote!

[Johnny2X2X]

10. Facebook micro target ads!

I am confident too, as I don't think anything Trump throws at Biden will stick, but I really want to see some data on how the Biden campaign is counteracting the Trump micro ads on Facebook. Hillary's team did little to deal with it and that's why she lost. Trump ran more ads total, he ran many times more unique ads, and it was all based on data Cambridge Anlaytica gathered that turned their ads into psy-ops.

If Biden doesn't have the same data approach and a plan to combat Trump's micro ads, we will be in trouble.

[unblock]

11. I'm cautiously optimistic, but yeah, there's more fundamentally strong reasons for optimism in 2020

Lichtman's keys were really borderline in 2016. Lichtman himself didn't make a final prediction until the last minute (he called it for Donnie.)

This time, just in the last few months, the economic damage flips two keys against Donnie and the blm protests flip a third.

Putting aside the specifics of this campaign, it's really hard to get re-elected when the economy sucks this badly and people are literally protesting in the streets.

[sarisataka]

12. I feel exactly as I did 4 years ago...

Unfortunately.

[wiggs]

13. Unfortunately, we know a lot more about the type of people that make up

our country. in 2016 we were astonished how many misogynists, racists, homophobes, and willingly ignorant people there must have been. Given daily reminders since that we somehow elected the most reprehensible person/family/administration in the world, our country has not made an adequate adjustment that a healthy country would have...wholesale rejection of a diseased leadership.

GOP governors and congresspersons are still getting elected. Media still presents issues in a horserace, ratings-centric manner. We see the ever-expanding breaking of norms and increased use of political office for increasing wealth and power. Outrages have only gotten worse and more numerous each week of the last forty-some months. Yet...a just, democratic path forward is not clear. The chances for fair elections are not clear. The guide-rails which keep govt branches and officials' behavior in check are not clear. Fairness of DOJ actions are not clear, in fact it is clear DOJ has been hijacked.

I agree with a lot of your observations and optimism, but I'm not sure which is more chilling: Trump getting elected in 2016...or...Trump still in office and still a candidate for re-election after mind-bogglingly horrific performance in office and in his whole life personally.