240 thousand Americans will be dead from Covid-19 before the elections

[malaise]

Make them pay - that is all

[bullwinkle428]

1. Yes - this is the IHME (Gates, U. Washington) projection, which actually placed the

number at around 60,000, very early on in the pandemic.

This current projected death toll is 4 TIMES LARGER.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[malaise]

7. Thanks for posting the link

[genxlib]

13. In fairness

They have been changing the window on those projections

This current one goes out to November 1. The early ones were only projecting out to August 1. I think they had intermediate ones at October and September also.

In recent times, they have been fairly consistent in the projections. Even as the numbers got higher due to the longer view, the near term numbers didn't change much.

[stopdiggin]

19. grant you that, 'cause I like to play fair

but you'll also have to acknowledge that their early projections -- were a bad JOKE.
(and no it wasn't government policy and social distancing factors -- and blah, blah -- they just had some really crappy modeling and numbers.)

Recently -- appear to be doing much, much better.

[genxlib]

21. No argument

I had my issues with them early on as well.

They made it difficult to argue with idiots to follow the science because the idiots kept pointing out how wildly inconsistent they were.

I think it is more a less an accident of geography (ie that they were close to the original US outbreak) that gave them early attention. Other institutions farther from the action were actually better.

[csziggy]

2. And over 40,000 lives could be saved if everyone wore masks

Here is the projection site:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[at140]

8. To save 40,000 lives, mandatory mask law makes complete sense

And the masks are getting much better looking and more comfortable to wear.

[malaise]

14. Well your president is at the airport in Atlanta without a mask

and masks are mandatory there (the mayor just said so on Wallace's show)

[csziggy]

24. It is well worth it

But with so many Republican governors and Dolt45 at the helm, it won't happen nationwide, I suspect.

The true idiocy is that most of the spread could have been stopped by now if a nationwide mask policy had begun in February or at the latest in March:

CDC chief says masks could halt outbreak in 4-6 weeks
John Bacon, Jessica Flores, Lorenzo Reyes
USA TODAY July 15, 2020

<SNIP>

Also on Wednesday, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the coronavirus surge could be controlled in 4-6 weeks, if people were disciplined about wearing masks.

More: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/07/15/covid-19-california-testing-moderna-vaccine-best-buy-requires-masks/5436928002/

Because we have a moron in the White House and his cult followers took his lead, this is going to take much longer to resolve with many more deaths than should have happened.

[Jim__]

3. But will that fact be reported?

Information from hospitals will no longer be sent to the CDC, but rather to Propaganda Central.

[malaise]

4. Most hospitals are private

The Con can't give them orders

[dalton99a]

5. Kick

[malaise]

15. He is the worst virus in my lifetime

[Wounded Bear]

6. Which is 3 times the margin of victory in Trump's "victory" in 2016...

in three crucial states. God forgive me, but I hope most of them are Trump supporters.

[malaise]

10. It doesn't look that way

People are also pissed that they have to stay away from grandma and grandpa

Make them pay

[live love laugh]

9. For every death at least 15 more will suffer

from strokes, kidney failure, amputations and permanent heart, brain or lung damage.

That’s 3.5 million affected.

[malaise]

11. That's frightening

[live love laugh]

23. More frightening is not enough beds to treat 3.5 million

Or more so some who might have been permanently affected may die instead.

[empedocles]

16. Again, for every death, multiply by about 30x for those seriously affected.

https://www.quora.com/How-can-a-disease-with-1-mortality-shut-down-the-United-States/answer/Franklin-Veaux

[live love laugh]

25. I had a factor of 20 from previous data -- I stated 15

as a conservative number. But whether it’s 15, 20 or 30 it’s catastrophic. That’s for sure.

[empedocles]

26. Agreed. I've seen rationales for even higher catastrophic numbers.

What get's me is the emphasis on death numbers. Even 3% deaths gives comfort to some.

[Brainfodder]

12. Only 240k?

I'm thinking .1% of population or 328k, but with all the improper reporting or excusing of it or not even testing, it's probably already closer to that number than we know.

[stopdiggin]

20. that's November

Covid doesn't go away in November.
(in fact there's projected concern about winter months, and indoor activities, bringing increased transmission)

[Brainfodder]

22. The longer they play political games with it, the longer and worse it's going to be, IMHO.

All Deliveries will have to do, I'm stuck.

[sarcasmo]

17. 240K dead Americans is why Trump wants hospitals reporting Covid #'s directly to The White House .

[malaise]

18. But he keeps on boasting that without his great performance it would be

2 million dead