Ever since March 2019, every single poll in the RCP average of polls has shown Biden ahead of Trump.

[Yavin4]

except for 4 polls, three of those were by Emerson.

To be clear, Real Clear Politics ("RCP&quot records polls from outlets like Fox News, ABC News, CNN, IBD/TIPP, Monmouth, Quinnipiac, etc. Every time one of these outlets report findings, they post the results and RCP posts the average of the polls over the last 15 days or so. In every single reported poll since March 27, 2019, Biden has lead Trump with the exception of those 4 polls.

I post this to disprove Trump's current narrative that he was "sailing to victory" if it wasn't for the virus when he was trailing Biden consistently for year BEFORE the virus hit the U.S. He was always losing.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html#polls

[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. Sailing to victory by demoting First Mate Parscale to Chief Bilge Pumper. Tight ship. . . nt

[OhZone]

2. Well this is an interesting comparison I made -

Between Clinton vs tRump and Biden vs tRump!

Thanks to RCP averages.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Trump was the betting favorite in February 2020

It was hovering in the 62% range if you averaged all the wagering sites. This was when his approval was at 44% on 538 and Sanders was favored for the nomination.

Polls are not the same as favoritism. That's the mistake too many make. For example, Bredesen was always the underdog in Tennessee senate in 2018 even when a long string of polls had him ahead. The oddsmakers and bettors aren't foolish enough to dump the fundamentals in deference to polling alone.

It is also the reason that Biden's betting favoritism right now is not nearly as the poll margins would suggest.

[BannonsLiver]

4. It's almost as if the data is saying something.