General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsRemember, George Bush was behind Michael Dukakis by 17 points in one poll in July of 1988.
And he came back to win in November. So never take anything for granted. And yes a I realize that this is an entirely different election this time. But I'm just saying.
hlthe2b
(102,193 posts)spooky3
(34,425 posts)ProfessorGAC
(64,967 posts)This is from Newsweek, Nov 1, 2016:
That one poll was such an outlier, that there had to be an error.
spooky3
(34,425 posts)I came across at 14 pts, both in Oct.
https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html
The other one was a Time poll. On edit, here it is:
https://time.com/4546942/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-lead-poll/
ProfessorGAC
(64,967 posts)...showed 47.5 to 45 (roughly) then there had to be polls showing PINO with a big lead.
Just one 14 point lead would massively affect the mean.
BTW: HRC won the popular vote by about this margin, given MOE. So, the aggregated polls called it fairly well.
spooky3
(34,425 posts)Things like HRC was never up by these margins and then imply that we need not be concerned this year because Biden is up by so much. It may be true that aggregated polls showed smaller gaps at this same point or later in 2016, but there were very reputable polls that showed her with big leads. I think its incumbent on journalists to state things accurately.
ProfessorGAC
(64,967 posts)But, while I think most of us were surprised this fool squeaked in, I think we knew the liability of the Hillary hate that had roiled for 30 years.
PINO was the unknown and HRC had too much irrational mistrust aimed at her.
Now, we're looking at 2 known commodities, and the incumbent is way behind.
The conditions lead me to the conclusion that we can't compare 2020 to 2016 regarding polls.
StevieM
(10,500 posts)He dominated that race from start to finish. She would have won easily had it not been for his antics.
spooky3
(34,425 posts)Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Hillary would have carried those swing states narrowly instead of losing them narrowly.
The narrative would have been...wow, that was a heck of a lot closer than we thought it would be.
No question Comey changed the outcome. Hillary contributed with the deplorables remark. That should never be discounted. Apolitical women in particular were insulted. I've heard the deplorables term mentioned more in conservation regarding 2016 than it ever shows up on sites like this. All the invented negatives regarding Hillary soared in stickability after she made that remark.
StevieM
(10,500 posts)First, you also have to factor in the July press conference that Comey held, not to mention the initial decision to baselessly place her under FBI investigation, and to do so publicly.
Second, I think the deplorables comment was made into a bigger deal after the election than it was during it. That comment paled by comparison to the stuff Donald had said. People at them time seemed more concerned that she fell down on 9/11. And after a slight dip in the polls (mostly because of the 9/11 fall down) she quickly rebounded and established a large lead, larger than she had ever had before.
Had Comey not intervened at the end I think she would have won by 6 points, with 333 electoral votes, including Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida. Had it not been for Putin's last minute antics it might have reached 8 points and over 350 electoral votes. And had it not been for what Comey and Putin did back in July, in the run up to the convention, the race would have been a blowout.
JI7
(89,244 posts)the most. Existing misogyny made those attacks more effective.
Biden doesn't have to deal with misogyny.
The biggest concern is Republicans cheating.
spooky3
(34,425 posts)Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)spooky3
(34,425 posts)Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)not saying you...don't know who you supported in the primary. who post this stuff supported a different candidate. And it was a different time...we were not in a depression with a killer pandemic.
spooky3
(34,425 posts)stating the facts, and, for some people, in making sure we not get complacent. You're absolutely right that we are in a different time, but as another poster said, some of the same problems are still out there (media that go too easy on Trump, Russian interference, Fox News, etc.).
Me.
(35,454 posts)Cause I haven't seen anyone here who is, Biden isn't, the Dems are working as hard as they can so who is or would, all things considered?
JCMach1
(27,555 posts)And Bush, one of the best media hatchet jobs ever.
We are in a black.swan.event. Short.of.a miracle cure, it more like the electioN of 1932 than anything else.
I don't think Biden will hit 472 EV, but it's within the realm of.possibility
rockfordfile
(8,700 posts)stillcool
(32,626 posts)Just saying. I just heard/saw the Bush/Dukakis example yesterday. Didn't mean anything to me then either.
unblock
(52,178 posts)I'll allow that our optimism should always be cautious and followed up with hard work and obviously, voting.
But our optimism is based on strong fundamental reasons, more than just a lead in polls in an otherwise fluid campaign season.
It's really hard to imagine a comey letter surprise that really moves the needle. Hillary smears went back a quarter century, and however fabricated, they resonated with many people, so the actual comey letter had a huge impact. But some late game smear on Biden will be easily dismissed because by now these guys have zero credibility, and besides, no one cares, because Donnie is such a disaster.
Fundamentally, it's very hard to imagine not being in a pandemic, not being in a rotten economy, and not having major protests by November. A lot of signs point to it being officially deemed a loser.
lpbk2713
(42,751 posts)Tell everyone you know to get out and vote (D).
Happy Hoosier
(7,277 posts)Defeatism that flies in the face of the evidence can be a morale killer. Accept that were winning, but keep pushing hard.
JI7
(89,244 posts)Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)vote and encourages Trumpers.
ProudMNDemocrat
(16,783 posts)He will work as hard as he can for every vote.
People are paying attention . They are getting more and more fed up with Trump and Trumpism.
Squinch
(50,934 posts)qazplm135
(7,447 posts)when was the last time one candidate was up 10 in just about all the polls?
People need to stop being scared by a single fluke election.
rockfordfile
(8,700 posts)qazplm135
(7,447 posts)Not being afraid of being up does not equal being complacent.
We are already going to win, I want to win BIG, and drag as many Senators and lower level Dems across the line as possible.
Initech
(100,056 posts)And the unhappiness level I think is going to be key to us beating Trump. The Dems need to take advantage of this and use it in ad campaigns.
agingdem
(7,832 posts)Last edited Thu Jul 16, 2020, 08:04 PM - Edit history (1)
Biden isn't Dukakis or Hillary...Trump isn't Bush ... we are living in a country that is upside down...we are literally thru the looking glass...Biden is leading...everyone except Trump's loathsome sycophants have had it with his nauseating optics, vicious playground taunts, his overt racism and ethnic hate, his reptilian family, his depravity and never-ending corruption..and because of his apathetic response to this pandemic that has turned this country into a viral Petri dish of death the electorate is ready to crawl over glass and risk their lives to vote the sonofabitch out of the White House...
Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)Buckeyeblue
(5,499 posts)In 1988, people didn't start paying attention to the presidential election until the conventions were over. The obvious: no internet, cable tv was smaller. The major tv networks still mattered.
I don't think national polls matter as much as state polls.
But polls are polls.
And Dukakis was not a good candidate. I think Gary Hart was really supposed to be the candidate but he had some issues, I believe.
Midnight Writer
(21,737 posts)totodeinhere
(13,058 posts)usually is that the Democrat will win the election. And everybody has some very good reasons why that should be. But sometimes when somebody tries to bring everybody back to earth and point out that Republicans do win elections sometimes, they take heat for it.
JI7
(89,244 posts)becsuse these are different times with fewer white people.
a better comparison would be a loss similar to 2000 or 2016 or even 2004.
but 1988 comparisons are not based on today's reality.
John Fante
(3,479 posts)rockfordfile
(8,700 posts)John Fante
(3,479 posts)Trump owns the three worst performances in the history of presidential debates. He'll own the six worst in a few months.
totodeinhere
(13,058 posts)Could we see a repeat? His base won't care if he loses the debates or not.
Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)As he will be against Trump who is a shitty debater.
totodeinhere
(13,058 posts)the Democratic Party has POC in the bag. But POC can think for themselves and should not be taken for granted.
Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)supported a different candidate. Biden is ahead by all metrics...and MSNBC and CNN showed that generally people ahead at this time won roughly by the margins they were ahead by. While, one takes nothing for granted, we are doing well.
JI7
(89,244 posts)Ace Rothstein
(3,152 posts)Hopefully they turn out this year at least at the same rate as whites.
Yavin4
(35,430 posts)He had no natural instincts. He was more of a college professor than a politician.
Quixote1818
(28,926 posts)John Fante
(3,479 posts)This isn't Joe's style. His disdain for Trump is palpable. Joe won't hold back.
diva77
(7,639 posts)ProfessorGAC
(64,967 posts)First is was a Gallup poll, and their reputation for getting it right is based upon the 3 months prior to the election.
Per this table, Bush was ahead until July. Dukakis had a slight lead early July, and a huge bump after the DNC.
In August the lead shrank.
Then Bush pulled ahead to stay.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections
(Scroll down until you get to 1988.)
I think we're comparing apples to cats.
hedda_foil
(16,371 posts)He wasn't known nationally at all. He had a nice buildup and speech at the convention. There was a good deal of Reagan fatigue, so he polled really well right after the Convention. Then he disappeared for two weeks or so.
During his vacay, GHWB's team defined him. Then he stuck his little head in a little helmet out of a tank turret and his polls tanked. It wasn't just Willie Horton.
Joe Biden has 100% voter recognition and is well liked by a broad swathe of the electorate.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)certainly no pandemic or economic collapse.
totodeinhere
(13,058 posts)I did not provide a link because I had thought that this information was common knowledge, especially at DU.
LiberalFighter
(50,831 posts)Bush didn't have to deal with Covid-19, a poor economy, Russian bounty on American troops, impeachment, and more.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)Xolodno
(6,390 posts)...So take that with a grain of salt.
Hell, when the polls were tanking on Dukakis, he finally admitted to being a liberal. Bit of a strange election.
But I will agree, don't get comfortable. Keep the pressure on and GOTV.
JI7
(89,244 posts)Xolodno
(6,390 posts)...and yes, he was seen soft on crime...and the Tank Indecent didn't do him any favors, but he ducked and dodged the liberal branding and for good reason. I remember it vividly.
You have to remember, this was after two terms of Reagan...and he left office with very high polls. In his exit speech in California, he quipped about the two term limit and why it should be revised, and people started chanting "four more years" which he kind of put a damper on by saying he wasn't interested in another term.
Add to that, the GOP was running ads not for any specific candidate, but Republicans in general, one featured and 8 year old girl on how her life was better since they took over. The "liberal" label was toxic at that point and you had to show yourself as a Conservative Democrat to have any real chance.
Even Clinton had to move to the right during his second term run (the often mentioned joke, when Clinton asked his campaign advisers what he had to do to win, the response was run as a Republican).
Point blank, Conservatism was ruling the era. Disagree all you want, but it doesn't change the facts.
There wasn't one reason why Dukakis lost, it was several. When he finally said he was a liberal, it was a last ditch Hail Mary because the Bush campaign had been very successful as branding him as one.
The USA was leaning Conservative at the time, get over it.
uponit7771
(90,329 posts)... republican runs after Trump as a right leaning republican then I'll just jump off a tall log
Xolodno
(6,390 posts)Remember, Reagan wasn't after Nixon, nor was he after Ford. This gets into economics so bear with me...
The USA only half implemented Keynesian Economic policies, due to the Cold War. For example, one policy is to RAISE taxes during war time, as it discourages military adventurism and forces government to focus more on infrastructure. But due to the Cold War, we were partaking in many open and covert proxy wars....so, they didn't go through with everything.
Ultimately, it led to stagflation, inflation with no economic growth...simply implementing the rest of Keynesian polices would have probably ended it....but then, it also ends a lot of military/CIA operations eventually as big budget military doesn't work under Keynesian economics. Damned if you do, damned if you don't as the way they saw it.
The Ford Admin, just threw its hand up...and printed buttons that said WIN (Whip Inflation Now)...but absolutely no policy to end it. So naturally Carter steam rolled over him (of course, the stench of Nixon didn't help either), but he ran into the same quagmire. But then it got worse, Iran, the Oil Crisis (thanks House Saud), a botched military rescue for the hostages, etc. Then it didn't help that Carter (though he was probably right) talked down on the public for basically being spoiled brats.
In walks in Reagan, with a message of optimism that people had been yearning for a long while. After he wins, he adopts Monetarism....to a point (Volkner triggers a recession ASAP so the economy can return to normal before the election), he is still pragmatic. Nor is Reagan a social conservative, this is the guy who legalized abortion in California which may have influenced the ultimate legalization across the country in the SC. As President, gave amnesty to illegal aliens....and he sure as hell wasn't a right wing religious nut, particularly given his wife Nancy's astrology habits. Was he a racist, yeah, but most 70 year old people at that time were....so you have to examine it in context. Not ideal, but none the less, what it was.
Monetarism allows for big military expenditures and drops the pitfalls of Keynesian Economics....only problem is, it leads to income inequality over the long term...and deficits.
So in walks in Mondale, and he says "I'll raise taxes and Reagan will raise taxes"....which kills him in the election. But you know what, he spoke the truth as Reagan jacked the taxes way in the fuck up there.
Enter G.H.W.B, heir apparent. Not exactly too popular as Dole thought he could challenge him. The guy has no connection to the average Joe like Reagan did (its why he lost to Clinton). But he was riding on the coat tails of Reagan (interestingly, Reagan didn't campaign for him very much). And he was more conservative than Reagan, yes I know, this goes contrary to most of DU thinks, but bear with me. He was against Reagan's "voodoo economics" at first....but when he saw Monetarism allowed for military adventurism without creating inflation (and the damage would be someone else's problem later)...he adopted it. And Bush was a moderate social conservative, a far cry from Reagan (Gingrich created the mythology of Reagan vs. the reality....I really hate that self serving bastard).
Ultimately, Economic Conservatism (Monetarism) had gotten the country out of stagflation and despite the nasty recession early in Reagan's term, the economy roared back and kept going for awhile. People were content, they may have had a bit of trouble of affording some things, but it sure beat waiting in a line to get gas on certain days based on your license plate number. And the military was something to be proud of again as well. And I could go on, there is no one factor, such as the fact the Mob infiltrated many of the Unions and they were getting bad press, etc.
Ultimately Dukakis should have just took a pass on the run. The party needed more of a moderate to have a chance to win and Bush was defeatable. He managed to paint himself as a moderate for awhile, but it eventually all caught up to him. And his campaign didn't have a message to sell either as a liberal. I'm reminded of the Naked Gun movies, in one scene there is a wall of photographs of disasters...and Dukakis is one of them.
uponit7771
(90,329 posts)... class tax breaks just like Trump.
Dem2
(8,168 posts)...than the alternative.
Sugarcoated
(7,721 posts)brooklynite
(94,483 posts)...nor was he insane.
anamnua
(1,108 posts)but one of the most teak-tough, wily, and battle-hardened operators in the game.
SKKY
(11,802 posts)...by 5% every day. We can't get complacent, and must get out the vote in a big, big way.
rufus dog
(8,419 posts)1. No Cable TV
2 through 99. Bush was not the incumbent. Not nearly as well known, the economy was OK, he had nowhere near the negatives and the Orange ShitStain.
lunatica
(53,410 posts)Joe Biden should just give him all the rope he wants.