TX-21 Moves to Tossup
Welcome to the most expensive, polarizing brawl in Texas: Democrats view Roy, Sen. Ted Cruz's former chief of staff, as a right-wing ideologue who voted to block $19 billion in federal disaster aid in 2019 and against the first COVID emergency relief package in 2020. Meanwhile, Republicans once labeled Democrat Wendy Davis "abortion barbie" for her 2013 filibuster of pro-life legislation in the state senate.
This is a rare case where the challenger is probably better-known than the incumbent. Republicans hope voters recall Davis from her disastrous 2014 run for governor, when she ran an unabashed liberal campaign and lost by 20 points. But Davis, a former Fort Worth area state senator who moved to Austin in 2016 to be near her new grandchild, has leveraged her notoriety into outraising Roy $4.4 million to $2.6 million.
The reason Roy is vulnerable isn't that Davis is a great fit for the district; it's demographics. This fast-growing I-35 corridor district voted for Trump by ten points in 2016, but sports the third highest share of college graduates of any GOP-held seat in the nation and is moving rapidly away from Republicans. Roy prevailed by just two points in 2018 and may need to rely on the Club for Growth to help keep pace with Davis.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-20-races-move-towards-democrats
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