With coronavirus antibodies fading fast, vaccine hopes fade, too

[Auggie]

San Francisco Chronicle / 6-17-20

Disturbing new revelations that permanent immunity to the coronavirus may not be possible have jeopardized vaccine development and reinforced a decision by scientists at UCSF and affiliated laboratories to focus exclusively on treatments.

Several recent studies conducted around the world indicate that the human body does not retain the antibodies that build up during infections, meaning there may be no lasting immunity to COVID-19 after people recover.

Strong antibodies are also crucial in the development of vaccines. So molecular biologists fear the only way left to control the disease may be to treat the symptoms after people are infected to prevent the most debilitating effects, including inflammation, blood clots and death.

“I just don’t see a vaccine coming anytime soon,” said Nevan Krogan, a molecular biologist and director of UCSF’s Quantitative Biosciences Institute, which works in partnership with 100 research laboratories. “People do have antibodies, but the antibodies are waning quickly.” And if antibodies diminish, “then there is a good chance the immunity from a vaccine would wane too.”

More (and possible paywall: https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/With-coronavirus-antibodies-fading-fast-focus-15414533.php

“I’ve never seen a virus get its fingers in so many biological processes all at once. It’s a very fascinating, horrifying, complicated virus.” -- Nevan Krogan, molecular biologist and director of UCSF’s Quantitative Biosciences Institute

[Jeebo]

1. My doctor gives me an annual flu shot in his office.

Isn't this because the flu vaccine's effectiveness wanes with time? Wouldn't that be true of the coronavirus vaccine too? So the vaccine would have to be given every few months or every year?

-- Ron

[Moostache]

3. The annual flu vaccine is usually because they guess at the most likely strains to break out...

The flu has many strains that come and go in waves and I am not 100% versed on the outbreaks and mechanisms that drive it, but I do know that the vaccine is an annual "best guess".

If COVID-19 mutates (which is 100% certain) and becomes something even worse, we would be truly finished as collective society.

This looks like a facinating read on the subject: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/how-fluvaccine-made.htm

[Auggie]

5. Our own antibodies wane, not the vaccine ...

so yes, a person would need multiple injections per year, perhaps every few months, according to the link.

I'd guess this is based on current research. Who knows what's around the corner?

Would it really be possible to immunize a percentage of the population every two to three months?

Not everyone will do it, of course.

[LisaL]

7. Hope for vaccine wanes.

If immunity from disease itself doesn't last long, it's going to be impossible (probably) to create a vaccine that causes long lasting immunity.

[LisaL]

8. Yes, the immunity from flu vaccine doesn't last very long

There are also different strains that circulate each year. Covid is mutating (although apparently not very rapidly). But if it doesn't lead to long lasting immunity, then successful vaccine becomes much less likely.


"A flu vaccine is needed every season for two reasons. First, a person’s immune protection from vaccination declines over time, so an annual vaccine is needed for optimal protection. Second, because flu viruses are constantly changing, flu vaccines may be updated from one season to the next to protect against the viruses that research suggests may be most common during the upcoming flu season. For the best protection, everyone 6 months and older should get vaccinated annually."
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/keyfacts.htm

[Moostache]

2. Just wait until the damn thing mutates into a MORE lethal form...

The world is not capable of handling this kind of threat because our society is set up to pit people against each other in pursuit of material rewards and hoarding of luxury. An egalitarian system, focused on solving problems that threaten all - instead of promoting a "get all YOU can while YOU can" ethos (and covering for the criminality that results by allowing money to buy justice or thwart it) would have made a big difference in the long term prospects of the species.

As it is, between viruses and social upheaval already here and the impending doom of climate-related agricultural collapse, I am pessimistic that humanity lasts another 100 years. There was so much progress made from 1900 to 2000, so many amazing advances, but the progress has stopped in favor of monetizing EVERYTHING and now we are living in a nation hell bent on defaming the very thing that made all of that progress even possible - science and rational thought.

It did not have to be this way. Unfortunately, it is.

[John1956PA]

4. +1

Eloquently stated.

[Auggie]

6. Pandemic + climate change! And we get a front row seat!

[durablend]

9. Welp, it's been fun kids!

I guess life had to end sooner or later...

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

10. Not only does the flu virus mutate every year, and sometimes

mutates significantly, there's a growing body of evidence that getting the shot every single year is simply not optimal.

I learned that at a public science lecture about flu about a year ago, read it last month in the book Deadliest Enemy: Our war against killer germs by Michael T Osterholm and Mark Olshaker.

And here's a link to one article the talks about it: https://www.statnews.com/2015/11/11/flu-shots-reduce-effectiveness/

[crimycarny]

11. Antivirals the key

I’ve written on this forum ad nauseam about antivirals, so forgive me for repeating myself! Since the COVID outbreak started I’ve kept my eye on the progress of antivirals versus vaccine. Antivirals can be given post-exposure to prevent getting the virus (HIV and flu antivirals work like this). Antivirals still work even as a virus mutates. Tamiflu was approved in 1999, over 20 years ago, and it still works against flu. Our family are big Tamiflu “believers”. In our family it’s reduced fever 24 hours after taking, knocked out flu entirely in 48-72 hours, prevented others in the household from getting sick at all. HIV antivirals can prevent someone from getting HIV if exposed.

I hope for an effective vaccine but also an effective antiviral. Clinical trials are underway for an inhaled version of Remdesivir, easier for a patient to administer at home. Other antivirals in clinical trials as well. Most were already approved for something else so safety studies have already been done.

Last note. I work in Healthcare and the doctors at our hospitals are saying patients put on Remdesivir are seeing marked improvements almost immediately. There IS hope.

[Auggie]

12. Thanks for posting this again

It's the first time I've seen it!

[pbmus]

14. Of course there is hope...lately people want to focus on chaos because

Money is made on negative as well as positive news...

In many areas of the USA natural selection will be the rule for this virus, mainly due to ignorance and willful ignorance (by evil politicians), and mixed in, is humiliating disdain by the oligarchy...

[crimycarny]

15. I call it "disaster porn"

I think someone on this forum might have coined that term. It fits. It seems some almost get off on bad news, especially media (I’m not referring to this post BTW).

[DeminPennswoods]

13. PSA: No one knows how long antibodies may or may not last

SARS2 is just too new for that information to be known with certainty.

[Midnight Writer]

16. We could all just mask up, distance, act responsibly, and starve the virus of new hosts.

We could lick this thing just like other countries have done.

[marlakay]

17. What is the vaccine then that is being tested

This summer on 30,000 people and fast tracked? Only works for a few months?