Electoral College Outlook: Biden Has the Edge
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'A month ago, a public poll showed President Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by just 2 points in Arkansas. That would be easy to dismiss as an outlier, considering Trump won the state by 27 points four years ago, except for the growing mountain of data elsewhere that is evidence of the president’s increasingly steep climb to a second term.
For three-and-a-half years, Trump’s job rating was arguably the most stable part of his presidency. With a committed and loyal base of Republicans for the president and a slightly larger committed and loyal group of Democrats against him, the country was on a trajectory to experience a close and competitive Electoral College contest with both parties fighting over a half-dozen or so key states.
That outlook has changed.
While the precise cause can be argued, Trump’s job rating has been on a precipitous decline over the last two months, not only putting a second term increasingly out of reach but potentially wreaking havoc on GOP candidates down the ballot.'
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'Analyzing a combination of partisan and nonpartisan, public and private, national and state-level polling, we’re changing our presidential rating in 17 states- all in favor of Biden. With those changes, Biden leads Trump in our Electoral College projection 319 to 187, when 270 is needed to win. There are some key states, such as North Carolina, where Trump doesn’t appear to be hemorrhaging voters at the same rate, but there just isn’t significant evidence that there is a single state getting better for Trump right now.'
https://insideelections.com/news/article/electoral-college-outlook-biden-has-the-edge
