General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsI think Rasmussen distorts 538's
Trump's approval #s. I have been watching these #s since day 1...no one except Rasmussen & affiliates and maybe throw in Harris, polls so high for trump. I know Silver adjusts for past accuracy, but what about frequency? Seems Rasmussen has a poll out constantly. Surely their consistent high approval affects Silver's average?
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)They all figure into the pollster rating which helps determine the proper weighting.
paleotn
(17,997 posts)and I've always wondered why the keep including a group that obviously focuses on over 65's with land lines. The distortion can't be weighted out unless it's factored at 0.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)Make7
(8,543 posts)They adjust the approval numbers based on the rankings. Rasmussen's reported 45% / 53% becomes 40% / 54% after adjustment.
538's overall calculated approval is 40.2% / 55.7% currently.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)It's consistently adding high approval #s
grantcart
(53,061 posts)Have a lot less impact.
The real value of any of these pollsters whether PPP or Rasmussen is not the number but the trend
In other words if both Rasmussen and PPP (and the others) all show Trump consistently trending down over a 10 week period, say 7 % , then they are confirming each other even if one is at 40 and the other is 44.
If Rasmussen shows a decline over time using the same turnout projections then his results are as helpful as the others, in some ways more.
BGBD
(3,282 posts)they also adjust, so a Ras poll at 48 goes into the average at like 41.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)Go into the avg. Even if they come in 41.
BGBD
(3,282 posts)but even if you took them out, the change to the average would be minor.