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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsI'll be damned: New Alaska poll shows Biden down only 1 point.
Trump - 48.8
Biden - 47.6
Undecided - 3.6
https://www.facebook.com/alaskasurvey/posts/1681737535312206
This is a poll of likely voters by Alaska Survey Research. It also comes on the heels of a poll an Alaska poll last week showing Biden down by 3.
If we can win Alaska, we're talking 1964 LBJ landslide territory.
Drahthaardogs
(6,843 posts)Alaska would always be a swing state
kimbutgar
(21,144 posts)Those cruise ships bring a lot of revenue to Alaska and with the cruise industry basically DOA because of the corona virus there will be a lot of financial suffering. The Democratic Party should highlight that the presidents mishandling is the reason they are suffering now. And also point out this administration says its ok to kill bears while theyre hibernating. They love their bears in Alaska.
JI7
(89,249 posts)think of the conservative assholes that hate black lives matter, complain about illegals , feminists etc. These dumbasses do look forward to thinks like sports and over time when they wont get it they might just say "fuck it" and vote for something different so they can get it back . None of this means they will no longer be bigots. But it's the "are you better off now than you were 4 years ago" question .
JCMach1
(27,558 posts)For this election
Wednesdays
(17,370 posts)And seven of the next nine!
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Worst polled state in the nation, always overstating the Democrat to absurd degree. I've emphasized it here since 2002. Nate Silver finally caught on with a lengthy article in 2014. Somehow he wrote nobody every seems to mention the misses always go in the same direction. Okay, Nate.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-update-alaska-a-frontier-for-bad-polling/
"As other commentators have noted, Alaska is a hard state to poll accurately. What we havent seen remarked upon is how those misses have come in one direction, almost always overestimating the performance of Democrats.
"In every single race, the polls have shown a Democratic bias. In 2008, for instance, Begich was favored by almost 10 percentage points in the polls against the Republican incumbent Ted Stevens, but won by barely more than a percentage point. Also that year, the polls favored the Democrat Ethan Berkowitz to win the states at-large House district from the Republican incumbent Don Young, but Young prevailed instead. In 2004, the polls had the Democrat Tony Knowles, the states former governor, tied in his race against Murkowski, but Murkowski won by three points. In 2010, the Republican gubernatorial candidate Sean Parnell by a margin much larger than the polls anticipated. On average since 1998, polls of Alaska have had a 7-point bias toward Democrats."
***
That 7 point bias held up in 2016 also.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/alaska/
Nate gave Hillary a 23.5% chance to carry Alaska. It should have been more like .235% chance. His model had Trump leading by 7.4 points. Trump carried the state by 14.7 points.
IMO, one of the reasons the polling misses so badly is that Alaska has higher percentage males than any state in the country. It is the only state that consistently has more males in the electorate. No doubt those conservative males in Alaska either aren't found by pollsters or aren't honest with them or are underrepresented in the model.
It really should be impossible for polling to be so consistently inept in the same direction. But I don't mind taking advantage as a gambler. Alaska wagering has been cupcakes.
BTW, Nate with the 1998 reference did not go back far enough. I discovered the Alaska polling bias when I began wagering on politics in 1992. The lousy polling was blatant as far back as the '80s.
BGBD
(3,282 posts)that will shows a 4 or 5 point shift to Democrats there. Not enough to win the state, in all likelihood, but bodes well of the election overall since there are a lot more states that you can flip with that kind of movement.
Honestly, I don't care who wins Alaska because it will be irrelevant to the election. There's no scenario where Alaska is the tipping point state. If Biden won it, he'd have won by so much that the election would have been called early in the night. I do want to see if the loss in the margin of non-college educated whites for Trump is showing up there too.
Music Man
(1,184 posts)Here's hoping this year defies history
Cha
(297,210 posts)not_the_one
(2,227 posts)Putin is probably already working on it.
(Some People Are Saying)