Is Texas a trap for Biden or Trump?

[edhopper]

A little inside baseball.
First, I don't think Biden can win Texas. A few more years to be purple.
BUT, by making it competitive and campaigning there, he forces Trump to use resources tin Texas he needs for other States that he must win.
Still, it means Biden is also using resources.

So whose campaign is hampered more by fighting for Texas?

[redstatebluegirl]

1. Trump because it freaks him out thinking he could lose Texas.

[Aristus]

2. Trump's.

You said it yourself: Trump has to use resources there that he needs for other must-win states.

Anything Biden does in Texas is a win. If he doesn't get its electoral votes, he at least does some important party-building there that keeps the state in the purple column, and helps to turn it blue.

[quickesst]

3. Why wouldn't Biden....

.... campaign in Texas?


"First, I don't think Biden can win Texas. A few more years to be purple."


*****************************************************
By Todd J. Gillman

5:32 PM on Jul 13, 2020 — Updated at 7:31 PM on Jul 13, 2020

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump insisted Monday that he’s ahead in Texas – a state he can’t win reelection without – despite a new Dallas Morning News poll that shows he lags by 5 points and other recent polls showing him tied with Democrat Joe Biden.

“We’re many points up in Texas,” he told reporters at the White House. “Fake news. Phony polls.”

But GOP strategists took the latest survey seriously.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/07/13/trump-insists-hes-ahead-in-texas-despite-5-point-deficit-in-new-dallas-morning-news-poll/

[Wounded Bear]

5. I think you missed the point, and oh, it's more of a problem for Trump than Biden...

He did state in the OP that it would be 'good to force Trump to spend money in Texas,' a state that normally Repubs have in their pocket.

It's not just Trump, either. The entire Repub party has been looking weaker and weaker in the Lone Star state. Expanding the map works for Dems this cycle, definitely.

[quickesst]

8. I didn't miss anything

I simply thought the statement was secondary. My post was more focused on what I believe was the more important issue stated by the OP.

Quote:
"First, I don't think Biden can win Texas. A few more years to be purple."

I'm pretty sure it isn't me who missed the point. That spending in Texas will hurt Trump, and help Biden is obvious.

[edhopper]

16. This is my opinion

I think Texas is still out of reach, but can play a part. This type of analysis is something all campaigns do.
Of course the numbers can change one way or the other before November.

[quickesst]

25. understood

By the same token my post is my opinion, and the numbers as of this moment tell me that Joe Biden has as much a chance of winning Texas, if not slightly more than Donald Trump. In my opinion Texas is well within Joe Biden's reach.

[edhopper]

26. the good news is it is close enough for

us to debate it.

I am also wary of Texas and Florida because their Repuke Governors will cheat to give him the State.

[quickesst]

28. that's one thing we completely agree upon

Texas and Florida are governed by snakes who will stoop to anything to help the orange turd. I can only hope that the DNC and Joe Biden's campaign are on top of this, and ready to strike at the first indication of foul play.

[unblock]

4. It depends on the results in November lol

In truth, at this point, any money or time donnie spends in Texas is a pure waste. There are pretty much no scenarios in which Texas is a tipping point state. If Donnie loses Texas, he's losing the national election by considerably more electoral votes than what Texas has.

So his spending money in Texas is either colossal stupidity or an admission of defeat and now he's just trying to avoid a landslide loss. Note that while Donnie is certainly stupid, his electoral campaign strategy in 2016 was not. So I'm leaning more toward the admission of defeat on this one.


For Biden, it's also true that Texas is not a tipping point state, but there's major upside for him to flip Texas. It helps build a big mandate as president the bigger the victory. It also helps us win the senate, which would make a huge difference in what he could accomplish as president.


Of course, if Biden loses, everyone will instantly turn on him and blame his efforts in Texas for losing the election, just as Hillary got blamed for doing similar things when she was widely expected to win.

But right now, it's smart strategy for Biden, even if people will forget that should he lose in November.

[Happy Hoosier]

6. If you can force the enemy to defend his turf....

while solidifying control of of the usual contested spaces, you're winning.

[Thekaspervote]

15. +1000

[earthside]

7. New chair of Texas Republican/Trumpican Party ...

... is the extremist reactionary ex-Congressman, Allen West.

West will take the Texas Republican/Trumpican Party so far down the Trump rathole that Biden will have a decent chance to win that state.

[judeling]

9. Everywhere is a trap for Trump at this point.

The basic fact is many more people despise Trump then love him. The are few actually casual about Trump. Merely by indicating he will make a play anywhere will energized those that despise Trump.

Really there is no state out of reach for Biden he has a rock solid bas of voters who will crawl over glass to vote against Trump. As Trump tries to juice his bas it will only get worse.

If I was running Biden's campaign I'd be targeting the reddest states while running a national campaign.

[hamsterjill]

10. Sixth generation Texan here

I just dunno. The Republicans coming out against Trump will definitely have some clout amongst the older, white, rich men. I know a couple who voted either Trump or third party in 2016 that will be voting Biden this time around.

Again, I just don’t know but Texas is in play and Biden cannot afford to ignore that.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

11. definitely Biden is hampered. he has limited time and should focus

on 10 key states with some advertising and surrogates hitting ones like Texas. He would be foolish to repeat the mistakes of 2016 and swing fir the fences. Take care of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin.

[Whiskeytide]

12. Texas is Тяцмр's canary. If he's ...

... having ANY trouble there, even if it’s a long, long, LONG shot, it means he’s in serious trouble elsewhere.

[SoonerPride]

13. Take the fight to THEIR turf. Put trump on his heels

Make him defend Texas, Georgia, Arizona, and other seemingly red states.

Make it widespread assault on every place and spread him and his team as thin as possible.

BURY THEM.

[ElementaryPenguin]

14. The virus continues to rage in Texas...

And Trump is going to lose Texas.

[Midnight Writer]

17. We need to swing for the fences every time we are at bat. Let's win 50 States this time.

[edhopper]

18. with unlimited resources

sure.
But there are must win States that have to be targeted.

[herding cats]

37. Biden"s strategy is to kneecap Trump in Texas, Georgia and Arizona

All while appealing to the the suburbanites in the swing states.

In the end we shall see if it works, but he has Trump, the incumbent, on the defense at this point in way too many important states. So far, Biden is doing fine. More than fine, he's doing quite well.

Divide and conquer seems to be his campaign strategy.

[Initech]

19. I personally think Biden would be better off concentrating on the Rust Belt.

Texas could be flippable right now, but I wouldn't place all my eggs in that basket. I think he's better off spending his time in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania. Getting a few, or all of those states would cause a huge ripple effect.

[edhopper]

20. Those are the priorities

Texas would just be a way to stick a thorn in Trump's side.

I don't expect Biden to flip it. And campaigning there cAnnot be at the expense of the Rust Belt.

[BGBD]

21. Democrats on the ground

there think he can win it. The polling suggests he can win it. I don't see why we should discount any of those things.

Trump is not as popular in Texas as other states with similar leans. He is less popular in the west generally, but this is showing up in Texas and Arizona. Both states with a lot of demographic changes as people move into their urban centers.

We don't have to make these kind of choices right now. The candidates aren't able to campaign on the road, so their time isn't a problem. We don't have to choose where to put them. Instead we are talking about being on the air and in digital ads targeting the areas. Yes, it's spending lots of money but Biden is now outraising Trump and money is not going to be an issue in this election. If Biden need more money he will have it.

Get those ads on the air there and everywhere you think you have a shot. Fight this battle in battleground you can. I'd have adds in Kansas and Nebraska too. Montana for certain. I'd be up in Utah and Alaska as well. Yeah, some of those are longshots, but that's fine. I'd be wall to wall in the Rust Belt and Florida/GA/NC. Anywhere there is a competitive Senate race I'd be up on the air.

[edhopper]

22. thoughtful post

[TeamPooka]

23. We need to fight for all 50 states. If we win Texas it breaks the GOP and not just for this year.

Losing Texas would destroy the GOP as a national party.
I want that, don't you?

So instead of sharing your "concerns and doubts" just get your fucking ass out there on the front lines: make calls, register voters and GOTV.
Got it?
Good.

[edhopper]

24. first

I don't think I care for your tone.

Second, I was talking about political strategy. Something EVERY campaign must do.
Where to place resources is a priority.

It's called discussion.

Got it?
Good

[TeamPooka]

34. I was talking about political strategy. If you are not aware of the 50 state strategy to which I

referred then where have you been for the last 25 years?

because that is the central debate in each of our races for POTUS the last two decades from a DNC perspective

Even in places where we are more than likely to lose the national seat studies show that if the DNC fights in the state, like GA, it helps every down ballot Democrat. The DNC still doesn't get that.

So I was on topic after all.
I accept your apology.

Save your snark, you might need it someday.

[edhopper]

35. Then you don't understand the 50 State strategy

It was about the DNC fielding candidates in all districts.
Not about the Presidential campaign going to every State.

You save your condescension.

[tarheelsunc]

27. Investing money in Texas is dumb.

We don't need Texas to win the election. Let's focus on winning the states we HAVE to win before trying to run up the score please.

[edhopper]

33. though running some ads

if they have the money, could cause Trump to spend $ and time there.
Leaving Biden an advantage in other States.

[Xolodno]

29. The calculus is this....

...for every dollar Biden spends, how much does Trump have to spend.

So if Biden spends a buck and Trump has to spend two bucks....its worth it. Even if you don't expect to win it, you are still draining his resources. Now if Biden spends a buck and Trump spends fifty cents...then its not worth it.

Of course, I don't have the inside info or knowledge on this. But I expect Biden's team is calculating this on a regular basis....as is Trump's campaign. They know where there is blood in the water, after the conventions, what states they campaign in will tell us a lot.

[LanternWaste]

30. Polls average Trump w/ a 1.5% lead today.

What specifically leads you to believe that lead is insurmountable?

Also, many of the state wide ad buys come from the state machine. Additionally, Biden's been out-raising Trump by an average of ten million for the past three months... meaning each ad buy is more expensive for Trump than for Biden, and costs Biden less in resources adding to his numbers than it does for Trump merely defending his numbers.

[edhopper]

32. in a GOP controlled State?

at least 5%

[Trenzalore]

31. This is an untraditional campaign

It won't be about appearances and rallies

That all being said, all resources should be devoted to getting to 270. If we think the Senator in TX is in serious jeopardy of re-election than we should devote resources.

[herding cats]

36. Democrats running for President always fundraise in Texas. We're a goldmine of cash.

If we're pet some, we will open our purse strings even more. As we have been on a grassroots level.

In this instance, in this weird virtual world we're campaigning in, it doesn't hurt Biden to give a shot across the bow to Trump and enthuse the locals to GOTV, which will influence down ticket races. It also causes Trump (and other GOP) to be forced to defend races they had assumed secure across the state. As is already happening here.

It's a good thing at this point. If it ceases to be I'm sure he'll change his strategy, but right now there's a plethora of grassroots donations coming from Texas. Democrats are as active here as they were during the 2008 primary. Which scared the crap out of the GOP, and this time it's in a GE. Many of of these people are finally active again after falling prey to the mindset they were disenfranchised being perpetuated by the GOP. Give them a shot and see if they hold true in the down ticket races. They're paying for a chance to be relevant. They deserve at least that small recognition right now.

Leave the big game to the PACs and their big money, but let Biden feed his base for this one, fleeting moment. It might just pay off down the road.

[Awsi Dooger]

38. Texas and Arizona and North Carolina have sucker credentials

All three were 41% conservatives or higher in 2016. Democrats simply do not win states with that type of math.

Florida needs to be the emphasis along with the three from 2016

[herding cats]

39. Look at the changes since then. And, these numbers are runoff races, not GE elections.

Link to tweet

Turnout in recent Texas Democratic runoffs:

2012: 236,305
2014: 200,992
2018: 432,180
2020: 955,735

Doesn’t mean Cornyn is vulnerable, but the days of TX Dems just pre-conceding every statewide race are probably over.

Time will tell, but Texas is definitely rising as a new Democratic power in the future.

Feed it and watch it grow. Texas will bloom sooner than some here not following the numbers expect.