4 Million Cases Reached Today

[berni_mccoy]

96 days to 1 Million
43 days later to 2 Million
28 days later to 3 Million
13 days later to 4 Million

Exponential Growth.

[C_U_L8R]

1. Holy shit. Trump should resign now.

Or be ejected.

[Farmgirl1961]

2. Agreed! N/T

[BGBD]

3. Not even close

The real number is probably closer to 40 million....and counting.

[ProfessorGAC]

7. 5 to 10x

There's no firm consensus, but the experts estimating this all seem to be coming up with 5-10.
So, 20-40 million cases is best guesstimate.
I've seen a factor tossed out at 16-20, but only one.
The issue with that high a factor is that with 60-80 million infections, growth should slow as the probability (3 in 5) that an infected person contacts someone already immune, and possibly immune, continues to rise.
The growth then slows. It's the basis of the hopes of herd immunity. At 60% it's increasingly less likely that a spreader contacts someone not already infected. So, that estimate seems high.
But, if we look at the Johns-Hopkins curve, it's getting steeper, not shallower. So, we're not to the point where total (known & unknown) infections is the cause of rate reduction.
I'm sticking with 8x until other data changes my opinion.

[berni_mccoy]

9. Agreed, actual number is in that range...

I think it’s going to take about 1-2 months for about 90% of the population to get hit with it. When that happens, mass deaths as we can’t handle the intensive case load.

[uponit7771]

4. damn ...

[leftieNanner]

5. That means we hit 5 million a week from now

Shit.

[berni_mccoy]

6. Only problem is...

Can the testing keep up? I doubt we will have the testing capacity around then or shortly thereafter.

[Wednesdays]

8. Which would put us at 10 million by around Labor Day.

Shit.