General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums538: Biden v trump polls are tightening.
July 1, Biden was ahead by 9.6 points. Today, that lead is down to 8.0 points. The lesson? Nothing less than a brutal defeat can defeat trumpism. Whatever the polls say, double and redouble all efforts to GOTV.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
OrlandoDem2
(2,065 posts)We must get Democrats out to vote and we must start by rebuilding the Blue a Wall!!!
From there focus on FL, NC, and AZ.
After that maybe TX, IA, and GA.
Thekaspervote
(32,689 posts)Last edited Wed Jul 22, 2020, 08:29 AM - Edit history (1)
Silver the self professed libertarian has openly supported trump and lets it get in the way of non bias polling. Hes just like the media, needs a horse race so we keep tuning in. I can only imagine with what is happening in our cities that traffic to his site is way off, especially in an election year
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/10/30/nate-silver-making-he-goes
A much more accurate look at the state of the race are the betting markets
Predictit.org Biden 62 cents trump 39
https://www.predictit.org/
Yes we need to pay attention and vote! The survival,of our country depends on it
Johnny2X2X
(18,967 posts)There's a couple Trump favorable polls included.
honest.abe
(8,610 posts)I think the polls will stabilize at around 10+ points for Biden with some fluctuations of course.
empedocles
(15,751 posts)[Although, markets political and retail, will fluctuate].
spanone
(135,778 posts)honest.abe
(8,610 posts)The polls may be stabilizing but Trump is not gaining.
zonemaster
(232 posts)Most (all?) of that dip can be attributed to just two new polls, Ipsos and Morning Consult.
1) Ipsos, a B- rated pollster, had Biden at +10 a week ago polling 961 registered voters. A week before that they had Biden at +6 polling 952 RVs. Now it has him at +8 polling about 4X that many people - 3,744 registered voters. The margin of error is definitely going to be worse for 961 vs 3,744, but a 2 point movement may just be in the noise for both.
2) Morning Consult is B/C rated. 2 weeks ago it polled 32,514 RVs and had Biden at +8, now it has him at +7 polling 31,310 RVs. 3 weeks ago, the polled 33, 549 RVs and had Biden at +9. Again - small movements that may just be noise within the margin of error.
I'd be more concerned if a bunch of A-rated polled start moving downward in unison.
uponit7771
(90,301 posts)... national polls with registered voters are least important.
Azathoth
(4,607 posts)budkin
(6,698 posts)Stay on target and lets make sure the wave that washes Trump away is so huge that any bullshit he pulls wont even matter.
AleksS
(1,665 posts)For some reason, rs seem to always get the benefit of the doubt.
Drives me nuts.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)they can to lessen a democratic tidal wave just like they tried in 2018
PubliusEnigma
(1,583 posts)Talitha
(6,555 posts)Wounded Bear
(58,584 posts)Quixote1818
(28,918 posts)Even if it does tighten a bit, Trump has a ceiling and I don't see him ever getting more than 45% and probably less.