538: Biden v trump polls are tightening.

[denem]

July 1, Biden was ahead by 9.6 points. Today, that lead is down to 8.0 points. The lesson? Nothing less than a brutal defeat can defeat trumpism. Whatever the polls say, double and redouble all efforts to GOTV.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

[OrlandoDem2]

1. They will tighten! Polls always do. Polls are not votes! People vote!!

We must get Democrats out to vote and we must start by rebuilding the Blue a Wall!!!

From there focus on FL, NC, and AZ.

After that maybe TX, IA, and GA.

[Thekaspervote]

2. 538....silver is no longer the non bias pollster he used to be!

Last edited Wed Jul 22, 2020, 08:29 AM - Edit history (1)

Silver the self professed libertarian has openly supported trump and lets it get in the way of non bias polling. He’s just like the media, needs a horse race so we keep tuning in. I can only imagine with what is happening in our cities that traffic to his site is way off, especially in an election year

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/10/30/nate-silver-making-he-goes

A much more accurate look at the state of the race are the betting markets

Predictit.org Biden 62 cents trump 39

https://www.predictit.org/

Yes we need to pay attention and vote! The survival,of our country depends on it

[Johnny2X2X]

3. Just noise

There's a couple Trump favorable polls included.

[honest.abe]

6. Correct. That Rasmussen +3 poll is dragging everything down.

I think the polls will stabilize at around 10+ points for Biden with some fluctuations of course.

[empedocles]

4. Agree. trump is the focus, be very careful of Dem distractions.

[Although, markets political and retail, will fluctuate].

[spanone]

5. WAKE THE FUCK UP AMERICA!

[honest.abe]

7. I dont think so. That difference is in the noise. Trump's approval is still sinking.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

The polls may be stabilizing but Trump is not gaining.

[zonemaster]

8. I wouldn't totally flip out about this

Most (all?) of that dip can be attributed to just two new polls, Ipsos and Morning Consult.

1) Ipsos, a B- rated pollster, had Biden at +10 a week ago polling 961 registered voters. A week before that they had Biden at +6 polling 952 RVs. Now it has him at +8 polling about 4X that many people - 3,744 registered voters. The margin of error is definitely going to be worse for 961 vs 3,744, but a 2 point movement may just be in the noise for both.

2) Morning Consult is B/C rated. 2 weeks ago it polled 32,514 RVs and had Biden at +8, now it has him at +7 polling 31,310 RVs. 3 weeks ago, the polled 33, 549 RVs and had Biden at +9. Again - small movements that may just be noise within the margin of error.

I'd be more concerned if a bunch of A-rated polled start moving downward in unison.

[uponit7771]

9. K&R, Likely Voter Poll with Low Margin of Error in swing states are THE MOST IMPORTANT while ...

... national polls with registered voters are least important.

[Azathoth]

10. Truth n/t

[budkin]

11. The polls will tighten. Don't freak out.

Stay on target and let’s make sure the wave that washes Trump away is so huge that any bullshit he pulls won’t even matter.

[AleksS]

12. Yup. Trump will always get the benefit of the doubt

For some reason, r’s seem to always get the benefit of the doubt.

Drives me nuts.

[beachbumbob]

13. trump is stuck at 42% and not going to change much so have ZERO concern. The media has to do all

they can to lessen a democratic tidal wave just like they tried in 2018

[PubliusEnigma]

14. Is the sky falling, yet?

[Talitha]

15. I've never been polled in my entire life.

[Wounded Bear]

16. Check the slope on the "how popular is trump?" poll...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo

[Quixote1818]

17. He never goes about 45% even when things are generally going well

Even if it does tighten a bit, Trump has a ceiling and I don't see him ever getting more than 45% and probably less.