Flows like that happen in a primary, not a general election. In primaries there are like minded people so everyone senses and reacts to the same trigger. There are no rigid boundaries. That is completely opposite of a general election where the immovable stacks of liberals and conservatives in each state regulate the shift and dictate the outcome.
It is always easier for a big shift to happen in the GOP direction because of the simple fact that there are 9% more conservatives than liberals nationwide. Essentially they start closer to 50%. Many states we take for granted a dependable Democratic states have far more conservatives than liberals. When there's a rightward pull among moderates and independents, it starts from a higher base number than a similar leftward pull. That's why our advantages are seemingly massive but it doesn't account for the same advantage. A Democratic president with this type of approval rating would indeed be down by 10-15%.
Here, I'll post one of my ideological breakdowns, state by state. In my early years on this site I used to do this type of thing all the time, until it became obvious nobody cared. Subjectivity is the landslide preference above numbers.
These are from the 2008 exit poll. I'll post 2008 because Obama's national margin was similar to Biden's current poll lead. Many states become more doable as a result. Note the massive lopsided ideological nature of Texas just 12 years ago and during a heavily Democratic year. I am not a believer in Biden carrying Texas. If Biden's handlers were sharp enough to look at basics like this, they would realize that Florida needs to have tons more cash and emphasis than Texas, which will probably report 40% conservatives or thereabouts. Obama even in 2008 did not carry any state with above 37% conservatives. The Democrat never wins when that number is above 37%. If Democratic handlers would poll on ideology instead of merely preference they wouldn't be wasting time on so many idiotic states like North Carolina (43%) in 2016 while ignoring states that obviously are in ideological teeter totter via numbers alone. This cycle we are going to be emphasizing many states that are almost guaranteed to be above 37% -- Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona. Also Ohio and Iowa. I would never do it unless you have ideological polling that indicates the level of conservatism has dropped. You'll also note that many states have become more conservative since 2008. They looked reasonable then but are long gone now. Indiana and North Carolina reported far fewer than 40% conservatives but have jumped above 40% subsequently:
2008 Exit Polls:
* Alabama: 47% conservatives 12% liberals
* Alaska: 38% conservatives 15% liberals
* Arizona 36% conservatives 21% liberals
* Arkansas 45% conservatives 14% liberals
* California 30% conservatives 25% liberals
* Colorado 36% conservatives 17% liberals
* Connecticut 27% conservatives 29% liberals
* Delaware 27% conservatives 23% liberals
* District of Columbia 11% conservatives 46% liberals
* Florida 35% conservatives 19% liberals
* Georgia 39% conservatives 13% liberals
* Hawaii 24% conservatives 28% liberals
* Idaho 43% conservatives 16% liberals
* Illinois 30% conservatives 22% liberals
* Indiana 36% conservatives 20% liberals
* Iowa 37% conservatives 19% liberals
* Kansas 38% conservatives 16% liberals
* Kentucky 39% conservatives 17% liberals
* Louisiana 42% conservatives 16% liberals
* Maine 29% conservatives 27% liberals
* Maryland 23% conservatives 26% liberals
* Massachusetts 21% conservatives 32% liberals
* Michigan 32% conservatives 25% liberals
* Minnesota 30% conservatives 26% liberals
* Mississippi 49% conservatives 16% liberals
* Missouri 36% conservatives 19% liberals
* Montana 34% conservatives 21% liberals
* Nebraska 36% conservatives 17% liberals
* Nevada 34% conservatives 22% liberals
* New Hampshire 28% conservatives 26% liberals
* New Jersey 25% conservatives 25% liberals
* New Mexico 34% conservatives 22% liberals
* New York 25% conservatives 31% liberals
* North Carolina 37% conservatives 19% liberals
* North Dakota 36% conservatives 16% liberals
* Ohio 35% conservatives 20% liberals
* Oklahoma 39% conservatives 16% liberals
* Oregon 33% conservatives 24% liberals
* Pennsylvania 27% conservatives 23% liberals
* Rhode Island 25% conservatives 28% liberals
* South Carolina 40% conservatives 17% liberals
* South Dakota 35% conservatives 15% liberals
* Tennessee 44% conservatives 18% liberals
* Texas 46% conservatives 15% liberals
* Utah 48% conservatives 14% liberals
* Vermont 24% conservatives 32% liberals
* Virginia 33% conservatives 21% liberals
* Washington 32% conservatives 27% liberals
* West Virginia 34% conservatives 18% liberals
* Wisconsin 31% conservatives 23% liberals
* Wyoming 39% conservatives 14% liberals
= new reply since forum marked as read
