General Discussion

bullimiami

(13,074 posts) Wed Jul 22, 2020, 07:18 PM Jul 2020

If you overlay worldometers daily cases and daily deaths graphs and match the general trend shape

it looks like we're about 3 weeks out from 3000 deaths/day.

and in more good news ...

6 replies

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If you overlay worldometers daily cases and daily deaths graphs and match the general trend shape (Original Post) bullimiami Jul 2020 OP

Holy Shit malaise Jul 2020 #1

Or as I would say Applan Jul 2020 #2

I don't see how you get there unblock Jul 2020 #3

im going with the assumption that we really arent doing that much better on mortality percentage. bullimiami Jul 2020 #5

Ok, I see how you got there. I don't think it will be quite that bad though. unblock Jul 2020 #6

***YES!!!*** The younger are taking longer to die ... or ... in Feb & March in NY there were already uponit7771 Jul 2020 #4

malaise

(268,664 posts)

1. Holy Shit

Reply to bullimiami (Original post)

Wed Jul 22, 2020, 07:19 PM

Jul 2020

Get thee to the greatest page

Applan

(693 posts)

2. Or as I would say

Reply to bullimiami (Original post)

Wed Jul 22, 2020, 07:24 PM

Jul 2020

Trump’s 9/11 Monday. And Tuesday. And Wednesday. And.......

unblock

(52,113 posts)

3. I don't see how you get there

Reply to bullimiami (Original post)

Wed Jul 22, 2020, 07:26 PM

Jul 2020

Assuming we're talking u.s. only.

Obviously, the daily cases chart looks ominous, but getting to 3k daily deaths in just 3 weeks is a huge jump, too much in such a short time. Not to say we won't get there eventually with Donnie death in charge....

bullimiami

(13,074 posts)

5. im going with the assumption that we really arent doing that much better on mortality percentage.

Reply to unblock (Reply #3)

Wed Jul 22, 2020, 07:39 PM

Jul 2020

the deaths lag the case reporting by like 4-6 weeks.

so at something like 20000 cases reported per day we have had around 1000 deaths.
we are now at triple that so it follows that deaths would likely triple.

of course first the infections, then the hospitalizations, then the icu, then the deaths.

maybe we are doing better and it will only be double.
we will see.

unblock

(52,113 posts)

6. Ok, I see how you got there. I don't think it will be quite that bad though.

Reply to bullimiami (Reply #5)

Wed Jul 22, 2020, 08:04 PM

Jul 2020

The daily cases has tripled in maybe 5 weeks, so it's not unreasonable to figure the daily deaths will triple with a lag of several weeks. So I'm with you on that. But the starting point isn't 1k if you average daily deaths over the course of a week. It's closer to half that. So I'd guess 1.5k on average, with mid-week days sometimes over 2k. We might even break 3k some days, but not 21k deaths over the course of a whole week.

Not yet, anyway. Of course, if the anti-mask terrorism continues, sure....

uponit7771

(90,301 posts)

4. ***YES!!!*** The younger are taking longer to die ... or ... in Feb & March in NY there were already

Reply to bullimiami (Original post)

Wed Jul 22, 2020, 07:28 PM

Jul 2020

... 30 - 60k hospitalizations getting close which peeked out in April ... then the deaths came.

Takes about 2 months for the deaths to start rolling in after low level NPIs are inacted

we're in for some hurt

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