** Super Fresh**Fox News Poll: Biden tops Trump in battlegrounds Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-tops-trump-in-battlegrounds-michigan-minnesota-pennsylvania


We just might take our country back

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. the stupid in most of those comments...

[lindysalsagal]

2. 11 points in PA. That's gonna leave a mark. Off to GP with you!

Best news I've heard all year.

[EarlG]

3. Wow...

Pretty funny that the article says "a lot could change between now and the election, which is more than three months away," as they show polls from three months ago which show Trump doing better than he is now.

[dflprincess]

4. Trump plans to spend a small fortune in Minnesota

Maybe this will dissuade him. It kills me that we're now a "battleground" state instead of solidly in the Democratic column. On the hopeful side, the DFL did win all the statewide races in 2018.

[jimlup]

5. Be careful though... we still need Wisconsin

to seal the deal. I've been looking at nightmare scenarios and they always come down to Wisconsin.

[John Fante]

6. Not if Joe bags Florida, which is looking more and more likely every day.

If Joe wins Florida, he's likely to win Wisconsin as well.

[Doodley]

8. Exactly. With CV-19 out of control in Florida, he's losing enthusiasm fast.

[Fiendish Thingy]

9. Either Florida or Wisconsin plus these states would seal the deal. Nt

[Quixote1818]

10. There is 3 months for Florida's covid numbers to slow way down. I wonder how that might

change the polling if any?

[John Fante]

16. Not much. Covid numbers have slowed in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania

and Trump's numbers are worse than ever in these states.

[jimlup]

18. I'm not thinking optimistically...

I'm thinking of "nightmare" scenarios.

In the nightmare scenarios that I've analyzed it usually, if not always, comes down to Wisconsin. I'm given Joe Pennsylvania, and Michigan which we didn't get in 2016 because polls show we lose Wisconsin before we lose those. I'll reiterate my point - I'm not thinking out rosy election night is a celebration scenarios. I'm thinking of the nightmare scenarios.

The thinnest escape from the Trump nightmare runs through Wisconsin. If all else fails, we must get Wisconsin.

[Awsi Dooger]

19. I agree with you regarding Wisconsin

That is the pivotal state if Biden's national margin drops. There are plenty of problems in Wisconsin including near parity between males and females in the electorate. We don't get the 53-47% split of females over males as in other states.

Not as many conservatives cross over and vote for the Democrat in Wisconsin. That is another issue. We normally have a net advantage in that category. But it didn't happen in either Wisconsin or in Pennsylvania 2016. Trump held conservatives above normal and he held Republicans above normal.

[Vogon_Glory]

12. Might Arizona help Joe?

Last edited Thu Jul 23, 2020, 07:23 PM - Edit history (1)

Arizona’s got more than a couple of electoral votes (eleven) and even in that hothouse of right-Wing lunacy, there seems to be a growing plurality of voters who would be willing to give Team Donkey a try.

[fishwax]

7. with the new Florida poll, that puts Joe up 10+ points in more than 270 electoral votes

https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/tipping_point.html

Before today, he was up 10+ in 213 electoral votes, and the tipping point was Florida, where Joe had a six point lead. But with PA and MN plus Florida (59 EV altogether), that now puts the tipping point at a 10% lead. And another 26 EV (Michigan and Wisconsin) at 9%.

[Fiendish Thingy]

11. Great news, with one caveat- these are RV's not LV's

After the conventions, most polls shift to Likely Voters.

If the LV polls show Biden above 50%, and outside the MOE (in these polls 3.5 x 2= Greater than 7% Lead), I will allow myself to become optimistic.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Quality polls are almost never off twice the margin of error which is theoretical.

[Fiendish Thingy]

14. No, but +/- 3.5% means either Biden's or Trump's number could vary that much

Trump could be 3.5% higher, Biden could be 3.5% lower - a poll with Biden at 52%, Trump at 45%, a seven point lead, could vary as much as Biden at 48.5% and Trump also at 48.5%, a nail biter.

so if Biden polls more than 7% ahead of Trump, there is statistically almost no chance Trump could beat him, especially if he is above 50%.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. I understand that but if you average polls the MOE decreases because the sample size increases.

I would add the FOX NEWS findings for MI, PA, and MN mirror what other quality pollsters are finding. I know we all got burned in 016 but the polls were decent. Trump pulled an inside straight.

[CaptainTruth]

17. I don't want to offend, but I hate clicking a Fox News link. I don't want to give them the traffic.

That's why I appreciate it when the OP includes a summary in the OP.

For the benefit of others, I summarized & tweeted this:

Fox News Poll: Biden tops Trump in battlegrounds Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania

Biden +9 in Michigan, +13 in Minnesota, & +11 in Pennsylvania.

https://t.co/0O38UQAfNo

[Chili]

20. omg - the comments by MAGA people the end of that article

They were calling the Fox News polls "fake news." Some of them are so shit-for-brains stupid that I had to laugh. Their self-loathing and bigotry so completely overwhelms their brains that they're left with zero self-awareness. Paraphrased: "if Biden wins, no law & order. Patriots will sit next to Kenyans in restaurants, and use the same bathrooms. Hippies will snort marijuana everywhere." WTF! You can practically smell their neurons disintegrating, right from your screen.