Trump could win because less than 60% of America even votes.

[Rustynaerduwell]

Thirty percent of America- that's half of the voting public- WILL vote for Trump no matter what he has done or will ever do. Let's not kid ourselves. He's got a good chance of winning even before the cheating and voter suppression begins. Please convince me I'm wrong.

[no_hypocrisy]

1. That's been the pattern for decades.

The President and Congress are elected by the majority of the minority. 26 percent or less.

[abqtommy]

2. I'm not worried about the election in 2020. tRUMP didn't win the vote in 2016, he won the

ratfucking. The rethugs took a beating in 2018. I look for tRUMP/reTHUGS to rely on ratfucking here
in 2020 as usual. We need to have our plans firmly in place. It's obvious to me that voting for tRUMP
and tRUMP winning are two different things.

[Andy823]

5. In 2016 we had

around one hundred MILLION voters that sat it out for one reason of another. I know a lot of them thought there was no way in hell trump could win, big mistake.

I really think this time the vast majority of Democrats who didn't vote last time have seen the error of their ways, and will turn out in larger numbers this year.

We need to get people out to vote, and we WILL win!

[SiliconValley_Dem]

3. your math is suspect

[Rustynaerduwell]

9. The way I see it is

virtually everyone who likes Trump is going to vote. For him. At the same time, a lot of people who don't like him, even hate him, are not going to vote. The fact that his approval is and always will be in the mid-forties scares me. Candidates have too often been elected with 45% of the vote, and he starts with more than thirty percent guaranteed going to the polls for him.

[Kaleva]

11. Where do you get your data from?

If it's a personal observation, then one must wonder why you are hanging around so many Trump supporters.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

12. this

[Rustynaerduwell]

15. I don't hang around with Trump supporters.

But I work with them. I talk to them on the streets of my small town. I have some in my family. I talk with like minded friends who they themselves know enough Trumpsters. Everyone I know who hates Trump knows someone who loves Trump. And his approval rating has always been, and seemingly always will be no less than in the low forties. So, yeah, I guess it's from personal observation. My question to you is how you AREN'T aware of the mind-boggling number of "if he shot someone on fifth avenue, I'd still vote for him" voters he has.

[Kaleva]

20. So where is your data from that supports your assertion that almost all Trump supporters will vote

and that "At the same time, a lot of people who don't like him, even hate him, are not going to vote."?

[not_the_one]

21. I think the two key words in your response is "small town".

Sure, there are a lot of small towns, filled with bigots and haters who vote for their own destruction as long as the right people (by their definition) are punished...

And for some reason they think the are the majority of AMERICA (because they look around and see they are surrounded by others who think just like they do), looking down their nose at the east and west coasts (where they are outnumbered by huge margins), and the large urban centers that are primarily democratic.

If the gerrymandered districts can be made fair districts, the majority WILL rule, and the tyranny of the minority (bigots, haters, supremacists) will be over. They are only in power now because they lie, cheat and steal. We are gonna fix that.

We just have to stay focused until November 3rd. He is going to continue to burn his bridges. We have to let him.

[marmar]

27. Your small town isn't America anymore.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. 'Candidates have too often been elected with 45% of the vote...'

The last person to win with 45% or less of the popular vote was Bill Clinton in 1992.

Before then? Nixon in 1968. In the last 100 years, only two candidates, Nixon and Clinton, won the presidency receiving 45% or worse of the popular vote.

If you add Trump, who won 46%, that's three - three candidates in 100 years. I would not call that all too often at all. BTW, that means, of the last 25 elections, only 3 fit your parameter, or 12%.

It's extremely rare and takes a significant environment (like a strong third party).

In 1968, George Wallace received 13.5% of the popular vote.
In 1992, Ross Perot received 18.9% of the popular vote.
In 2016, both Gary Johnson & Jill Stein received 4.3% of the popular vote (combined).

There isn't anywhere near as strong of a third party presence in this election. And before you dismiss the idea that 4.3% isn't a lot for a third party, the last election even comparable to that is 1996, when Perot received 8.4%. Not counting 1992, which I already spoke to, the last third party to receive over 4% of the popular vote was John Anderson in 1980.

Context matters.

[Rustynaerduwell]

18. You are absolutely correct, but

In the six Presidential elections between Clinton and Trump, the winning candidate in four of them received less than 50% of the vote. Both Republicans who won the election lost the popular vote. Ya'll convinced this can't happen again?

[Awsi Dooger]

22. All of the traditional indicators look awful for Trump

The right track/wrong track number has plummeted. His approval dropped several points when he needed it to rise several points. Moderates and independents bolted Trump in spring 2017 and have never returned.

The Silent Generation is easily his best generation, with 57% approving of Trump, last I checked. But that generation is losing numbers and therefore influence all the time. 2020 would be much closer to 2016 if the Silent Generation were equal percentage of the electorate as that cycle. The young Generation Z won't vote dependably but Trump's approval rating within that group is a dismal 22%. Essentially the lost members of the Silent Generation will be replaced by Millennials voting somewhat more dependably and first time Generation Z.

Trump's only advantage is incumbency and all the factors than can rescue an incumbent. But he already gave away his golden parachute. It was called coronavirus. Scary reality that he had to do was take that ultra seriously and he'd be cruising to re-election right now.

[Drunken Irishman]

24. Don't move the goalposts.

[Rustynaerduwell]

25. I didn't mean to move goalposts.

I just fear another we win but we lose scenario. I was looking to be answered with optimism, not rebukes.

[Drunken Irishman]

29. Those elections had significant third party opponents.

Again, context matters.

1992 had Perot.
2000 had Nader.
2016 had Johnson & Stein.

I can't even name the Green Party nominee & and I think the Libertarian nominee is named Jo or something and that's it.

[marlakay]

4. He has 30% of voters not America. Nt

[stopwastingmymoney]

7. This

[demosincebirth]

6. You're wrong. Why do you bring up this crap?

[Thekaspervote]

8. +1000

[dreamland]

10. Isn't that amazing that 30% of Americans still support him?

We need to GOTV and send him into Oblivion because I don't want to see his fake face ever after November.

[blogslut]

14. 55% turned out to vote in the 2016 presidential election

Turnout can always be higher but your percentage is way low.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections

[Rustynaerduwell]

16. I said less than 60% of America votes.

Less than 60% has voted in every election since 1972.

[blogslut]

17. sorry, i apologize

[BGBD]

19. Your math is off here.

If half of the voting public were going to vote for Trump no matter what.....his poll numbers would be over 50% in LV polls.

His base is 30% of VOTERS, not citizens.

The 2020 election is likely to be the highest voter turnout in recent history.

[budkin]

23. I feel like people are so sick of him

That they will turn out in droves to vote him out.

[marmar]

26. The anti-Trump voter is the most motivated voter of all this year.

[Sloumeau]

28. I don't think you quite understand how polling illustrates voting patterns.

Yes, a fraction of the U.S. population actually votes. However, the voting patterns are somewhat proportional to the population as a whole. Of the entire U.S. population of about 330 million people, only a fraction of those people are eligible to vote (at least 18, U.S. citizen, not excluded from voting due to committing a felony). Of the people eligible to vote, only a fraction of those people will actually register to vote, and only a fraction of those who register will actually vote at any given election.

Polling is usually done by polling registered voters. So, let us say that in a given poll of voters in Michigan of 2000 voters, 55% say they will vote for Biden and 45% say they will vote for Trump. Certain factors can play into it, like voter suppression making it harder for Democrats to vote in some areas, or a number of Democrats being financially challenged so don't make it to the polls for various reasons, but if the suppression factors are not significant, we can still expect that Biden will probably win because only a fraction of the Trump supporters and a fraction of the Biden supporters will actually vote. It is not true that every Trump supporter will vote while only a fraction of the Biden supporters will vote.