Trump's tanking in the polls. These are the two key groups defecting to Biden.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

In the wake of a pandemic and the protests following George Floyd's death, voters' support for President Donald Trump has tanked.

His average deficit against Joe Biden in national polls has ballooned from 6 percentage points in March to 9 points in July. In the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, published last week, the former vice president leads Trump 51 percent to 40 percent — larger than his 7-point lead in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll from June.

But a closer look at the cross-tabs of recent surveys yields some surprising findings: Trump is actually performing a bit better with nonwhites than he did against Hillary Clinton in 2016. And the group fueling Biden's polling surge is seniors and white voters with college degrees.

The 2016 election was defined by mass defections to Trump of the remaining white, working-class members of the Democratic coalition, particularly in heartland states.

Much in the same way, the 2020 election is currently on track to see mass defections of the remaining white professional members of the Republican coalition to Biden — a trend disproportionately playing out in the suburbs, where those voters tend to live.

In an average of nine live-interview national surveys conducted since the start of June, Biden is clobbering Trump 58 percent to 37 percent among whites with college degrees, more than double Clinton's 51 percent to 42 percent lead among that group in 2016, according to the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, a nationally representative sample of 64,600 adults.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/whos-behind-trumps-big-polling-223729127.html

[abqtommy]

1. The numbers don't lie and I'll tell you why... They show that many of us are capable of learning

and choosing a better life!

[beachbumbob]

2. Biden's female voter support % is way higher than Hillary ever got.

[a kennedy]

3. I don't understand that......why did they not like Hillary??

Never understood that.

[lagomorph777]

6. It's more like they hate Trump with the fire of a thousand suns.

[beachbumbob]

8. years of clinton attacks by media most likely

[onetexan]

16. yea, alot of numbnuts believing the crap the MSM painting Hillary as a scheming & opportunistic

woman. Well numbnuts, you got what you voted for - a sociopathic narcissist who doesn't care whether you live or die and whose hellbent on wrecking the country.

[UCmeNdc]

9. Years and years of propaganda negative attacks against Hillary Clinton. The GOP continually attacked

her reputation for years.

[Demovictory9]

22. they sure did

[manhattan123]

11. Decades of GOP and right-wing media demonization

How many thousands of stories, how many tens of millions of dollars spent and thousand of hours of congressional hearings held "investigating" bullshit, from the White House travel office (remember that golden oldie) up to Benghazi!!!1!

Hillary was targeted early by the right-wing infrastructure as a danger to their worldview, and they started going after her from her days as First Lady of Arkansas, to First Lady of the US, to NY Senator, to Secretary of State.

Kevin McCarthy inadvertently gave it away in 2015: “Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right? But we put together a Benghazi special committee, a select committee. What are her numbers today? Her numbers are dropping. Why? Because she’s untrustable. But no one would have known any of that had happened, had we not fought.”

All the sleaze paid off for them in the end.

[NewJeffCT]

14. Yep - Hillary had been under a national microscope since Bill started his run in 1991

everything about her was criticized - her hair, her clothes, her changing hairstyles, every word she spoke and the tone in which she spoke those words, etc.

There was so much crap thrown at Bill & Hillary for 25 years, that there was at least some doubt in the minds of some people that "hey, all those criticisms of Hillary can't all be BS, can they?" - the old, "where there is smoke, there is fire" mentality. So, a lot of non Republicans had been conditioned not to like her over decades.

While Biden was a fairly high profile senator for 20+ years before becoming Obama's VP, he never had the same non-stop scrutiny that's Hillary had been been through. And, frankly, Obama being the first black president kept the focus on Obama while Joe was known mostly for the occasional verbal gaffe or verbal zinger.

So, while Joe has been a national figure for even longer than Hillary, other than his high profile crash in his 1988 presidential run, he's never gotten that huge level of attention that Hillary has gotten or Obama has gotten.

[Poiuyt]

4. I'm surprised to see his black and hispanic support holding

It's not good, mind you, but it's not going down to zero like I'd expect.

[Mike 03]

5. This amazes me too. nt

[UCmeNdc]

10. I see strange Facebook attacks against Biden......

They show a supposedly everyday normal black person talking about how Biden is the real racist and Trump is the real hero. Funny how no one can seem to find out who these black people are. Plus, their address to other blacks seem to be coming from some overseas FB accounts. Russians?
A lot of people might start believing this disinformation campaign over a course of time.

[Poiuyt]

15. That definitely sounds like a Russian disinformation campaign

[Awsi Dooger]

20. Black support is invariably understated in polls

It is almost never the 90+% of actual. But once election day rolls around the same dependable numbers show up.

Biden will do fine with blacks. The Hispanic support is going to lag logical, only due to the ongoing trend of Hispanic loyalty to the incumbent.

[onetexan]

17. Many Hispanics are Christian/Catholic and are still hung up re: the abortion thing

As to why Blacks would vote for this wrecking ball,

[Awsi Dooger]

19. Hispanics always are unusually loyal to a presidential incumbent

I've emphasized that for years. Issues are irrelevant. Trump was going to do strangely well with Hispanics no matter who we nominated.

It's been interesting to see the scrambling rationalizations the past few months. Everyone is pointing to a different reason. Nobody seems willing to accept it is the situational influence and nothing more than that.

Let's see, I believe Kerry got 54% of the Hispanic vote in 2004 and Obama something like 71% in 2012. Hmmmm...I wonder what those two cycles have in common, or apart?

[onetexan]

21. Explain what u mean by situational influence, & why the disparity in the numbers Kerry & Obama votes

[Mike 03]

7. Either on CNN or MSNBC about two weeks ago some political expert said

that even uneducated whites were peeling away from Trump. Has anybody else heard that? I don't know if this was based on a poll or just some anecdotal evidence.

[BComplex]

12. Trump is actually performing a bit better with nonwhites than he did against Hillary Clinton in 2016

There is no way in hell that non-whites are moving to support this racist piece of shit. I don't know where they got that, but for me, it throws the whole poll into doubt.

[Takebacktherepublic]

13. All polls are bullshit

Don’t trust them. Stay vigilant.

[pecosbob]

18. I had a guy come in my store the other day...I know him to be an Alex Jones listener

He started talking about Bill Gates mining crypto-currency with people's internal organs or some such similar insanity. I sort of lost my shit and told him to get the eff out. This is not the America in which I grew up or honestly one with which I wish to interact for the most part.