General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThree Senate candidates you should NOT support financially...and three that you should
In 2004, I became involved in financing Democratic Senate candidates...five of them (four lost). The next cycle was 12 (plus House candidates). The next was
..
Today I give a lot of money to candidates for the House, Senate, State officials, Party Committees, etc. and as a result I get endless requests for support. Ive met with or talked personally to 11 Senate candidates as well as DSCC Chair Cortez-Masto, and probably 50 House candidates and incumbents. To manage all these requests, Ive built a model over the years that crunches a ranch of data elements to provide guidance on which race make sense to support...and which dont.
Given the expansive battlefield we need to fight on (winning the Presidency, holding the House, picking up the Senate AND not forgetting about Statehouse and State Legislative contests, its critical to make informed decisions about where to put money (if you want to VOLUNTEER for any Democrat, be my guest). Heres my current recommendation of what you should and should not do in the Senate.
Dont Give Money to:
Lets be honest: you hate Mitch McConnell. You want to get rid of Mitch McConnell. Amy McGrath iss an appealing combat veteran running against Mitch McConnell. Why not support her?
Because, so far she has raised $47.2 M. More than McConnell. More, in fact than any other Senate candidate. She currently has $16.2 M on hand. She doesnt need more money; she needs an electorate thats willing to take their displeasure with McConnell and vote against him. And to be blunt, they show no sign of doing so. He was first elected 36 years ago. He has political clout, the ability to bring home goodies for his State and a substantial war chest of his own. The way youll get rid of him is not defeating him at the ballot box, its by taking away his Senate majority. And there are Senate candidates with much more achievable opportunities to win.
(note: I know Mark; I met him from when I ended up at the private swearing in ceremony for Gabby Giffords. Its a long story...)
In some ways, this is the reverse situation to Amy McGrath. Mark will be a great Senator and wed love to get rid of McSally, whos already lost a Senate race (to Kyrsten Sinema). The reason not to give to Kelly at this point is, quite honestly, that he doesnt need the help. As of June 30, he had $23 M in the bank, and (with one outlier) has led in every poll this year. Cook, Sabato and Gonzales have all rated this as LEAN D and most analysts are already assuming this race can be banked in favor of the Democrats.
Look, I know that incumbents shouldnt automatically expect to be nominated and and everyone has a right to run for office and all that. But so far, Kennedy and Markey have raised $17 M, enough to fully fund 2-3 competitive House races for the privilege of retaining a Democratic Senate seat in an absolutely safe Blue State. You could light the money you planned to give on fire and have just as much effect on our political future.
DO Give Money to:
One of the things my model values is synergy: supporting a candidate whos voters will also turn out for someone up- or down-ticket. With the continued blueing of North Carolina, its in reach for Joe Biden (the latest RCP average gives him a +3 average). Turning out votes for Cunningham will help both Biden and Governor Roy Cooper, as well as pick up the five seats needed to control the State Assembly.
Georgia is also becoming a more competitive location for Democrats (see Stacy Abrams) and polling says this is is currently neck and neck between Trump and Biden. Jon Ossoff is currently ahead by a whisker for the Senate seat, but had to burn cash for his Primary and needs to replenish to maintain his competitiveness.
Okay, this is a bit of an irrational outlier. But two recent polls show the Senate race relatively close, as well as the House At Large race between Alyse Galvin and Don Young. And the advantage of Alaska is...its cheap. Only one media market and campaign costs are far lower than in other States, so your dollars go further. This ones worth something of a longshot bet.
So, spend wisely. Ill be back next week with some House recommendations.
Ninga
(8,274 posts)chimpymustgo
(12,774 posts)Miguelito Loveless
(4,457 posts)Money is a finite resource. Some candidates REALLY don't need it. Other candidates desperately need it.
So, spend your money where it is needed.
DonaldsRump
(7,715 posts)gerrymandering, dirty tricks, a pandemic, Trump's personal militia, vote by mail with massive challenges on the US Postal Service. ANd let's not forget about foreign interference.
We won the House back in 2018, but not the Senate. That one thing has allowed Trump to go unchecked to a large, but not total, degree (thank you House Dems!). President Joe Biden with a Re-bumble-ican majority Senate will not help.
Everything is in play, and everything is a war. Yes, money is finite, but folks should give as they see fit, and fight like hell by volunteering etc.
Miguelito Loveless
(4,457 posts)and yes, you are correct. Everyone should volunteer who can.
Laelth
(32,017 posts)Just wish I had some money to donate.
-Laelth
DonaldsRump
(7,715 posts)They have an R governor and not too long ago had an R US Senator.
I don't think we can let up ANYWHERE.
bearsfootball516
(6,374 posts)It was a special election, at a time that the Democratic party was facing a backlash, against a pretty weak Democratic opponent. In a way, it was kind of the Republican equivalent to Doug Jones winning in Alabama in 2017. The stars had to align perfectly for it to happen, and they did.
seaglass
(8,171 posts)If you are worried about the Senate election in MA you could wait until one of them wins the primary.
I'm from MA and Scott Brown was an anomaly. Prior to his election, the last R Senator from MA was 1979.
The R Governors has a lot do with the overwhelming D state legislature and while I would opt for a Dem every time, Baker is not a Trump-Republican and he has done a somewhat decent job with coronavirus (with a few missteps).
DonaldsRump
(7,715 posts)doesn't Charlie Baker get to appoint her replacement? While I've heard he is moderate, he is a Republican. So, to the extent he selects a temporary replacement, it would probably be an R.
I don't disagree with the OP's fundamental thesis, and the OP is FAR better informed than I am. I am just simply saying folks need to give where they feel it can be of use. If I were in KY, I sure as hell would be giving contributions to Amy McGrath, etc regardless of how much of a monetary advantage she may have. McConnell needs to go, not as Majority Leader, but as a senator. He is a repulsive creature that has helped enable all of this, and he will be equally devious in a minority position. Get him out of the Senate.
He's just the first of the Rs. Let keep going!
seaglass
(8,171 posts)NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)they could change the law to require the replacement to be from the same party or to take away the governor's right to name a successor (they did that when Kerry was the Dem nominee in 2004 and Romney was governor)
But, right now, Baker would only name a short-term successor who would be a placeholder until a special election could be held.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)Markey has the most progressive voting record in the Senate and Kennedy was only a little bit more liberal than the Dem house caucus in a safe blue district.
Tom Rinaldo
(22,912 posts)Thanks
qwlauren35
(6,145 posts)I am surprised that you didn't mention him.
FM123
(10,053 posts)PS I love that guy!
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)dawg
(10,622 posts)in Montana.
JonLP24
(29,322 posts)I don't care if they need it or not.
MoonlitKnight
(1,584 posts)Especially the synergy/down ballot argument.
I would add support to those local candidates who can help boost turnout and help up ballot. The one who may not win but if you can turn out some more blue in a red area to help a statewide race or Biden to win the state.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)Kelly's Senate campaign doesn't need the money but we need to keep flooding the airways w Kelly ads because
They are amongst the best ads in the country, positive, patriotic, astronaut and Kelly's coattails will:
1) secure AZ electoral college. Trump loses AZ the only paths left for Trump are ridiculous fantasy options. For that reason Trump is pouring money into AZ and it's not working.
2) help us take the State House currently 31 R 29 D
3) There is a possibility we can take AZ 6 and state Senate
A big Kelly victory lifts a lot of boats and this seat is up in 2 years and we want an intimidating win so R PACS stay away in 2022.
Lots of good options for people to invest but Kelly is a good one too.
GA should be #1 option because both seats are likely to go to the same party.
Mike 03
(16,616 posts)sometimes wonder if there's such a thing as "too much money" in the Arizona races.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)brooklynite
(94,469 posts)At a certain point, there are no more ad slots to buy...
In my call with Catherine Cortez-Masto, she agreed that Kelly didn't need help right now.
Mike 03
(16,616 posts)give him money, but I've read your other posts advising against it for now.
Your advice on these matters is greatly appreciated. I'll pass this on to my mom, because she's been giving to Mark Kelly too.
If the Mark Kelly situation changes, please post about it!
tinrobot
(10,891 posts)qwlauren35
(6,145 posts)I'd love to see Collins gone.