Morning Consult polls have Biden up +2 in Texas, +1 in Georgia, +10 in MI...but only +3 in MN?

[democrattotheend]

Check out these new Morning Consult polls:

WI Biden 50 Trump 43 (D+7)
VA Biden 52 Trump 41 (D+11)
TX Biden 47 Trump 45 (D+2)
PA Biden 50 Trump 42 (D+8)
OH Biden 45 Trump 48 (R+3)
NC Biden 47 Trump 47 (Tie)
MN Biden 47 Trump 44 (D+3)
MI Biden 52 Trump 42 (D+10)
GA Biden 47 Trump 46 (D+1)
FL Biden 49 Trump 46 (D+3)
CO Biden 52 Trump 39 (D+13)
AZ Biden 49 Trump 42 (D+7)
National Biden 51 Trump 43 (D+8)

Anyone else find this odd? How could Biden be winning by 7 in Arizona, 10 in Michigan, 7 in Wisconsin, 8 in Pennsylvania, and even be up slightly in Georgia and Texas, but only up by 3 in Minnesota? Do you think there's a backlash to the unrest that occurred after the George Floyd shooting? I remember thinking at the time when I saw the fires and broken windows in Minneapolis that those images would play right into Trump's hands. Fortunately it seems to have had the opposite effect everywhere else, but I've been saying for a while Minnesota is a state we shouldn't take for granted this year. Hillary barely won it in 2016 (ditto for New Hampshire), and I'd hate to see a repeat of 2016 where states we took for granted end up costing Biden the election. If his big national lead and lead in other states holds Minnesota should be fine (and we don't even need it, though it would be a sad loss, since other than DC it has the longest Democratic voting streak in presidential elections). But if, as in 2016, the polls tighten nationally, states like Minnesota could be Trump's ace in the hole like PA, MI and WI were in 2016.

[uponit7771]

1. Wait for the "Likely Voter" Polls that are below 3.5 MOE, some of the polling now are off because of

...RV polling IMHO

[democrattotheend]

3. These polls are LV

Although it's a little early to be using a likely voter screen, IMO. I thought most pollsters switch over around September?

[RhodeIslandOne]

2. It's one poll.

FOX News had Biden up 13 in MN last week.

[Mike 03]

4. Up by +7 in Arizona

[democrattotheend]

5. Yup, that's definitely good news

Overall these polls are great. But I highlighted MN because it was surprising, and because I don't want a repeat of 2016. Before the national polls tightened, Hillary was leading in a bunch of states that she ended up losing, but would have still won if she'd held all the states Kerry and Gore won (plus Colorado and Virginia). I don't want to lose any more blue firewall states.

[marybourg]

6. Biden isn't a woman.

[Sugarcoated]

16. And one who was relentlessly demonized

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Better to look at the aggregates.

Some of the results are odd. In what universe are the Dems up by two in TX when they lost it in 016 by 9 but tied in NC when they only lost it by 4?


We might be seeing the limitations of non random online state polls.


P.S. If those polls are correct Biden is close to 400 Electoral College Votes.

[lagomorph777]

8. TX and FL are in crisis, thanks to Trump-allied governors. Their voters are swinging hard.

It's a matter of survival. The situation in NC is not quite as dire.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. FL and TX are in crisis.

In the former state Biden is up 4 from 016. In the latter state Biden is up 11.

I think I'll look at the aggregate.

[Demsrule86]

12. And yet we are likely to win the Tillis Senate seat...he is down by a great deal in all polls.

[democrattotheend]

11. That I actually can believe

Texas has been getting more and more diverse, because the Latino population is growing faster than the white population. I believe this is also true for the African American population but I am not sure about that. Demographers have been predicting for over a decade that Texas would eventually become a swing state, and it's gotten closer every election. It's one of the few states where Hillary did better in 2016 than Obama did in 2012. And the Senate results in 2018 were very close. Also, Texas is such a mess right now with the coronavirus, which can't be helping Trump.

[Codeine]

10. Any given poll is just that, one poll.

Polls function best when in groups, this helps filter out some of the statistical noise and soften the peaks and valleys of outliers.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Minnesota should not be taken for granted

32% conservatives and 28% liberals means it is a blue leaning state but hardly immune to shifting away. That is almost the identical numbers Pennsylvania had in 2012.

Others we need to fortify:

* Nevada
* Colorado
* New Hampshire

[democrattotheend]

14. Virginia too

The polls look good there now, but I used to live there and I don't think it's a state we can take for granted. Just 12 years ago it looked like a longshot to flip and hadn't voted for a Democrat for president since LBJ. Democrats took over the state legislature in 2019 and have gone on a bonanza of passing progressive legislation since, which is great from a policy perspective, but there's a chance it could be too much too soon and spark a conservative backlash. That state flipped into our column too recently to be considered a reliably blue state, IMO.

My husband also thinks Oregon and Washington could be vulnerable due to the unrest and clashes with the police in Portland and Seattle. Sending federal law enforcement probably hurts Trump in the cities (which never would have voted for him anyway), but it could help him in the more conservative suburbs and rural areas. It seems like a stretch that those states could go red but I'd like to at least see some polling on them.

[Awsi Dooger]

15. Yes, you caught me being lazy

I started to type Virginia in the prior reply but left it out for no good reason.

Everything you said about Virginia is accurate.

I'm not worried about Washington or Oregon because both states now have 30% liberals or above. There is no precedent for a Democrat to lose a state with that makeup. Virginia, Minnesota, Nevada, Colorado are all in the more precarious range of 25-28% liberals, just like the three states we lost in 2016.

[Bucky]

17. Demographic shifts happen

I'm proud to see Texas purple up. It's been a long horrific Westeros type of red winter over here, yall

[mvd]

18. Possibly an outlier in MN

I am very happy about the overall numbers!

[democrattotheend]

19. Me too

But I hope the Biden campaign is keeping an eye on Minnesota. New Hampshire and Virginia too, and maybe even Washington and Oregon (given everything that's going on in the cities there). We can't afford a repeat of 2016. If Hillary had held all of the states Kerry won in 2004, plus Virginia and Colorado (and held the Maine 2nd), that would have been enough to win even if she lost every other state Obama flipped. I'm not that worried about any of these states, but I hope the Biden campaign is at least polling them and keeping an eye on them.