TX-06: Upset alert? A Look into Rapidly-Changing TX-06
One such sleeper suburban district that can become emblematic of this overarching trend is TX-06, held by first-term Republican incumbent Ron Wright. TX-06 contains most of the city Arlington as well as the smaller towns of Mansfield, Waxahachie, Eureka, and the Cedar Hill suburbs. A reliably conservative district, TX-06 voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 by 32 points. It voted for John McCain and Mitt Romney in 2008 and 2012 by 15 and 17 points, respectively, even as Barack Obama won the presidency. However, in recent years, the district has seen a continued leftward trend. Hillary Clinton lost the district by 12 points (the best performance for a national Democrat in the century) and Wright won by a measly seven points against communications professional Jana Lynne Sanchez.
While the district is becoming more liberal-favored in recent elections, elections analysts have largely shifted from describing this race as potentially competitive in 2020. This was due to factors such as presidential preference in Texas and the divesting of Democratic resources into more flippable Texas congressional districts such as TX-23 (held by Will Hurd in the Rio Grande Valley region) and TX-24 (held by Kenny Marchant in the Dallas-Fort Worth region). However, the Democratic Party have a few factors up their sleeve which can make this Trump+12 district a potential flip at the House level, even if President Trump carries the district again in 2020.
In 2018, many congressional candidates in Texas, primarily those surrounding big cities such as Dallas, Fort Worth, and Houston were boosted by Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 bid for US Senate. As a first-time candidate with considerable monetary funding as well as charisma, O’Rourke was able to come close to Ted Cruz, losing by a two-point margin in a state that voted for Donald Trump by nine points.
In addition, his statewide blitz of advertisements and campaign events helped congressional candidates such as Colin Allred and Lizzie Fletcher get over the hump and defeat long-entrenched Republicans in previously Republican-safe territory. This effect helped Lynne Sanchez come within seven points in a district where previous Republican representative Joe Barton won by 19 points in 2016. In the 2020 elections, Democrats are bearish on capturing additional congressional districts in Texas, a state that has not voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter.
https://elections-daily.com/2020/07/08/upset-alert-a-look-into-rapidly-changing-tx-06/
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