Biden has an 8 point lead in Arizona
Latest USA Swing State Voting Intention
(19 to 24 July)
Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest polls across six US swing states find Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump in all six states, with leads ranging from 1% in North Carolina to 12% in Michigan. Relative to our results in June, Donald Trump has narrowed the gap in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, but has fallen further behind in Arizona, Florida, and Michigan. In Wisconsin, Biden’s 10% lead has remained relatively stable since our first swing state voting intention in May.[1]
Enthusiasm Gap
Despite the leads that Joe Biden holds over Donald Trump, Trump’s likely voters express a greater enthusiasm for voting for their preferred candidate. 54% to 67% of likely Trump voters say they are very enthusiastic (a 3 out of 3 on a scale of enthusiasm) about voting for Trump. Meanwhile, 40% to 49% of likely Biden voters say they have that level of enthusiasm for voting for Biden.
Moreover, across all states, likely Trump voters are significantly more likely to say they are primarily voting for Donald Trump because they support Donald Trump (rather than because they oppose Joe Biden), while a majority of likely Biden voters say the primary reason they plan to vote for Biden is that they oppose Donald Trump (rather than because they support Biden).
Voting In-Person and Mail-In Votes
This gap in enthusiasm presents itself, most interestingly, in the willingness of Trump voters to vote in-person on election day. When asked how comfortable they would be voting in person on election day (on scale of 0 to 5), between 36% and 44% of likely Trump voters say they are ‘very comfortable’ (5 out of 5) voting in-person on election day. Meanwhile, only 9% to 15% of likely Biden voters express the same degree of comfort with voting in person in November.[2]
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-usa-swing-state-voting-intention-19-to-24-july/
The link has graphs of the polls.
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