Hurricane warnings up for the Bahamas; Tropical Storm warning for Turks and Caicos

[malaise]

The only good news is that it is not a major hurricane.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/085728.shtml?cone#contents

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula later today.

[soothsayer]

1. Drumpf's going to Tampa today, with a rally at 6. I wish it would hurry and get here

Mother Nature should be no fan of that guy.

[secondwind]

2. We spent most of the night without power. It's dawn here, with a soft rain.

No sun. Winds have died down. Dogs were able to sprint out and do their business.

Power is back on now, no telling how long it will last.

Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic 🇩🇴

[malaise]

3. Stay safe

Hope the drought is now history

[unc70]

4. Predicts landfall where I grew up in NC

Family and property still there. Too early and way too much uncertainty in forecast to be Very concerned, yet. Spaghetti models have a lot of outliers at the moment, mostly to the west of the official forecast. NHC discussion notes this, but they are waiting for further data before changing forecast.

The earlier forecasts did not anticipate it would shoot the gap and and avoid getting chewed up by the mountains.

[malaise]

5. Yep it didn't self destruct over DR

as anticipated

[Baclava]

6. Model tracks show east FL coast, then Carolinas, moving fast, NW 17, could turn out to sea, Cat 1

Weaker storm would take more westward track, running into some dry air and wind shear now

Too soon to tell where its headed for US, know more when it gets closer to Bahamas

[malaise]

7. Will this new one be a factor

[Baclava]

8. Nah, its a week behind, if steering currents are the same prob a fish storm, if at all

20% chance of development

[malaise]

9. 11.00am update

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144952_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the Florida east
coast from north of Deerfield Beach northward to the
Volusia-Brevard County Line.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of the
Florida east coast from north of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian
Inlet and for Lake Okeechobee.

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia-Brevard County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* North of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

[Baclava]

15. Yeah thats Isaias, not the one behind it you were talking about there

[malaise]

16. I was just updating

Agree re the one behind

[Baclava]

17. Oh OK, lol, yeah looks the whole east coast of FL gonna get brushed, could be headed for NYC!

NYC, Entire Tri-State in Cone of Concern Next Week; Hurricane Isaias Expected to Strengthen

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-entire-tri-state-in-cone-of-concern-next-week-as-hurricane-isaias-eyes-bahamas-friday/2544398/

?w=800&r=16%3A9

[malaise]

21. And it's now at 80mph and moving at 15mph

[crickets]

10. Thanks for the daily updates on this, malaise! K&R

[malaise]

11. You know this may well be trouble for Mar-a-Lago

August and September are the serious hurricane months They'r early this year

[crickets]

12. Aw, gee willikers. That would be terrible. 🤭

[malaise]

13. Only for the neighbors

[crickets]

14. True, and I wouldn't wish disaster on them just to see Mar a Lago go bye-bye.

Florida has enough disaster going on right now. For all our sakes, I'm hoping this storm will just dump some rain and leave without doing any real damage.

[malaise]

18. Yes this will be trouble for Palm Beach

Last edited Fri Jul 31, 2020, 09:07 PM - Edit history (1)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/205732_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[Awsi Dooger]

19. This is the Florida link I always use

Easily the best overview, IMO:

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

It provides the consensus track without all the frantic overreaction to the latest model. But there are convenient links above the state in the dark gray where those model plots are available..."NHC Forecast Tracks" and "Hurricane Model Plots"

[malaise]

20. Thanks for this

[Awsi Dooger]

22. You are welcome

Prior to finding that link I was hanging around the specialized track forecast boards, where seemingly every other poster is always intent on doom and gloom for South Florida

[Awsi Dooger]

23. Not good...track shift closer to the coast

Note the purple line just slightly offshore now, compared to where it was all day Friday

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

[Baclava]

24. Its a disorganized mess right now, breaking up over Bahamas

[Baclava]

25. No longer a hurricane, downgraded to tropical storm

[Baclava]

26. Moving NNW now, worst weather staying offshore of the FL coast, headed to the Carolinas as a TS

[malaise]

27. Good for all in its path

[Baclava]

28. It still has a chance to regroup over open water again, Carolinas need to pay attention now

[Baclava]

29. Picking up strength again, FL spared, gonna rip through and along the entire east coast, headed N

[malaise]

30. It's slowing down

That's not good

[Baclava]

31. After missing FL completely it stayed offshore to keep its strength, gonna pound the Carolinas hard

[Baclava]

32. Update. Isaias strengthens, expected to be near hurricane force when it reaches Carolinas

Watch out!