Yesterday Bill Maher expressed concern that the polls seem to be narrowing in the Presidential Race

[still_one]

Whether that is actually happening or not, it is prudent to assume that this election will be close, and it is imperative that we get people registered, and push for them to vote early, and by mail

If they vote by mail, they need to insure their ballot was received by the register of voters, and counted.

In California we can check the status of our ballot online. I am not sure how other states are setup

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/06/politics/trump-polling-analysis/index.html

"When you look at the average state poll that called cellphones, you see no sign that Trump is doing worse than in the early summer. In the average state poll in June, Biden outperformed Hillary Clinton's margin by 8 points. The margin was 8 points since July as well. This would translate to a 10-point Biden lead nationally.
This is better than Biden was doing earlier in the year, when a similar exercise suggested he was up around 7 or 8 points nationally. Still, any momentum Biden seemed to have in June has stopped.
Essentially, Biden widened his advantage from May to June following the beginning of the protests after George Floyd's killing in late May, and it's not gotten worse for Trump since.
The national polling paints a similar picture. Biden's margin widened at the end of May and beginning of June. Since then, Trump has held his ground.
Biden was ahead of Trump by 11 points in the average national poll that calls cell phones in June. The margin was exactly the same in July. Likewise, the average of all the other polls was an 8-point Biden advantage in June and an 8-point Biden edge in July.
Poll aggregators that take into account all of the data actually have Trump cutting his deficit from around 10 points to somewhere closer to 7 to 9 points. That's better than where Biden was before June, but less than his peak.
The same trend can be seen in Trump's overall job approval rating. He declined precipitously from April to June. The drop accelerated at the end of May.
Despite all of that, Trump's approval rating among voters never dropped below 40% with voters in the average poll. Currently, Trump's approval rating among voters is about 41% or 42%, depending on how you compute your average. His net approval rating, which went as low as below -15 points, is now closer to -12 or -13 points.
We're not talking about a big improvement by any stretch. Rather, it's that Trump's position has stabilized and perhaps improved a few points.
Overall, pretty much every method agrees that Trump has, if nothing else, stopped the bleeding.
The fact that Trump's standing hasn't gotten any worse may come as a bit of a surprise given the rise of coronavirus cases and deaths nationally. Biden leads Trump by double-digits on who is more trusted to handle the virus, and the issue is a top one for voters.
The answer to this slight mystery may lie in the fact that issues surrounding race relations have faded from the news. Coverage of protests isn't anywhere close to where it once was. And although voters don't like Trump on coronavirus, they like him even less on race relations. So it isn't shocking that Trump is holding or may have even gained a point.
That said, it's tough to see how Trump could win if coronavirus is the big issue come voting time. As I've noted before, the candidate who leads on the big non-economic issue of the day pretty much always wins in elections not determined by the economy.
Still, the current difference between the polls at this point and the result isn't wide enough to suggest Biden has this locked away given how much polls have moved from this point to the election historically. Yes, Biden has held a relatively steady lead, which makes him a clear favorite.
But in a year in which we are facing unprecedented circumstances, Trump is staying in the hunt."

[tman]

1. Yeah, they were bound to narrow.

It's 2020. America is not a 10 point race country. I feel good about Biden's chances.

[still_one]

2. After the Conventions that is where I think we will have a clearer picture what we are up against

The important point is that regardless of what the "polls" say, it is prudent to assume any election will be close, and sitting this election out is not an option

[Ex Lurker]

24. Don't shoot the messenger

I work and live among a lot of voters who would be considered up for grabs. It might seem that everyone is in one camp or the other, but it's not true. A great many of them I've talked to don't think Trump deserves another term. HOWEVER, and this is a big however, they're wary of putting the progressive wing of the Democratic party in charge, especially since having a progressive VP/presumptive heir apparent is all but assured. Most people aren't marching in the streets. They want change, but not revolution. If they sense that revolution is what the Democrats are offering, they may not vote for Trump, but enough of them could stay home to make the election very close.

Like I said, don't shoot the messenger.

[still_one]

25. I am under no illusion, the election will be close, but trump has accomplished something the

Democratic Party has always had problems dealing with, and that is unifying the party and turnout

Those issues that plagued us in 2016, are not going to burden us in 2020

The animosity that trump has generated among Democrats has united us as never before, and we will see that reflected in turnout in a big way

Because of his mishandling of the pandemic, and the economy, while I don’t see a groundswell of republicans voting Democratic, I can see a significant minority of them not voting, and that can make a big difference.

Trump and the republicans realize that, which is why they are working so hard to suppress the vote by trying to block vote by mail in Democratic states, and other voter suppression tactics

I believe trump has unified the Democrats in a huge way, and that will be his demise

[mucifer]

3. i think between the "executive orders" and the nra issues we have some troubles in our future I hope

we can handle all of this. That's just the polls.

I honestly am going to early vote in person. It seems clear to me that vote by mail isn't going to work unless the we can stop the repubs from destroying the USPS and I really think it's happening too fast for them to stop it.

[MiniMe]

4. National Polling means nothing

All that matters is the individual states. A candidate could be ahead by 20 points, and still lose the election because of our voting system.

[DIVINEprividence]

5. I just examined the polling data

If you notice, The Hill and Rasmussen polls have been outlier polls. All the other polls are showing very substantial leads for Biden. Notice the Rassy poll over time relative to other polling. Rassy poll has a bad rep and is well known to push poll to help conservatives. Brad Pascal commissioned a number of these because Trump was freaking out. Remove this poll from the averages and our lead is much bigger. I know, polls are meaningless at this point but wouldn’t you rather be up?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

[qazplm135]

7. Polls in June and July are of limited utility

They get more useful the closer you get.

Trump was always going to get in the mid 40s on election day

We just need Biden to get close to 50, which when all is said and done I fully expect.

[BannonsLiver]

16. Except for the part where they've predicted the winner many times over the last 40 years

CNN and Harry Enten has a piece over the summer that made it pretty clear they are predictive.

[qazplm135]

20. except the times when they aren't

I didn't say they were bullshit, I said they were of limited utility that increases the closer you get.

[beachbumbob]

8. 2020 is not comparablet o 2016 BUT inflicting doubt will be,

all we have to do is get registered and vote. In Illinois I can do mail in OR early walk in voting. I am doing early walk in/

[Swede]

9. Act like its a horse race and go vote.

GOTV

[PubliusEnigma]

10. Fuck Fairweather Maher!

[Thekaspervote]

11. Agree!

[Hortensis]

13. :) You do him wrong. Maher thrives and monetizes discontent,

disaffection, self pity, bigotry against any of 1000 targets, antipathy, resentment, weakness, self pity, alienation, dissension, and so on for people looking for amplification of all and excuses to continue the perverse satisfactions most come for. All served up with the required candy coating of virtue they also need to go with it.

He's really sort of an...anti-John-Lewis even as he melts his memory down and drizzles its sweetness over his audience. Especially as he does.

Yeah, just a lengthier way of expressing opinion of him and his toxic product.

[GusFring]

12. I don't think you can have a blowout in this election. Especially when Trump and his minions control

the federal government. He's attempting to suppress the vote like no other POTUS before him

[GusFring]

17. Thats what we all thought 4yrs ago.

[BannonsLiver]

15. Bills toxic pessimism schtick is tiresome

[ProfessorGAC]

18. He Specifically Stated He Thought PINO Will Lose

He says polls are tightening but still figures Biden will win.
Not sure what the issue is.

[Yavin4]

21. I've posted several times that the polls will tighten

But I was rebuffed. Negative partisanship is the biggest factor in elections. It's the "I hate the other party more than I like my own" kind of thing.

A huge segment of Trump's supporters probably despise him, but they will convince themselves to vote for him for any number of dumb reasons primarily due to Negative partisanship. It could be Biden's VP choice, more social spending to combat the virus and its economic effects, or the color of Biden's ties. They will cling to whatever justification they can find to vote for Trump.

Biden's true lead is probably 4.5 to 5%. It may drop down to 3.5 to 4% on election day which is still huge.

[Awsi Dooger]

22. 3.5 to 4% is not huge

The electoral college tipping point is just below that. And I still believe Trump's support will be understated by polling.

I agree with you that Biden's actual lead right now is probably 4.5 to 5%.

And that means it is asinine to have belief in states like Texas, North Carolina and Georgia. Those states will not come along when the margin is only 5 points. There are simply too many conservatives in those states, especially Texas at 43-44% in every recent ideological survey.

Texas is a waste of time and resources. Everything Texas should be devoted to Florida. That state consistently reports 34-36% conservatives in presidential years, which is smack in our wheelhouse except we do an inept job of prioritizing the state and targeted messaging to the complicated Florida demographics.

[Yavin4]

23. Given the current partisanship divide, a 3.5 to 4.5% lead in the popular vote is indeed huge.

I totally get the electoral college argument, but I think we keep dismissing the popular vote as being completely meaningless. It's not. It's the truest expression of a national voice that we have. It's a signal to the rest of the world that this nation rejects Trump and the Republicans.

If Biden wins the popular vote by 5% or more but somehow loses the EC, then that will show that the EC needs to be abolished once and for all.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

26. I have faith in NC, but not TX or GA.

I agree that most attention should be given to states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

I don't even trust Ohio as a decent investment of resources, but I think Biden winning here is more probable than Texas or Georgia.