FiveThirtyEight: Biden has a 71 percent chance of winning the White House

[brooklynite]

The Hill

A new election model released by FiveThirtyEight gives presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden a 71 percent chance of winning the White House, compared to 29 percent for President Trump.

The analysis gives Trump a greater chance at reelection than other current models.

For example, The Economist’s forecast gives Trump only a 10 percent chance of victory at this time.

The FiveThirtyEight model starts off with Biden as a heavy favorite largely because of his lead in the polls.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[jpljr77]

1. UGH, already? I still have nightmares about watching the NYT's "prediction dial" slowly shifting

from 95% Clinton to a Trump victory over the course of that awful, awful night.

[jcgoldie]

2. Yeah that was a nighmare

I won't be spending election night glued to that shit ever again its death by 10000 cuts.

[dubyadiprecession]

4. Trump doesn't have a chance.

Everyone is evenly fatigued with his behavior and covid.
Besides, Biden takes nothing for granted, he will fight like hell to win.
He’ll even campaign in Texas, just you wait and see.

[jpljr77]

5. I hope he never steps foot in Texas.

I'd rather him skip that trip and do an extra stop in North Carolina or Florida or Michigan or Pennsylvania. If he goes to Texas, it will be a signal he IS taking those states for granted, imo.

Coming close in Texas doesn't get you a single thing, just ask Beto.

[rownesheck]

7. I don't think everyone

is equally fatigued. Forty percent of the population orgasm every time that orange fuckface speaks. Cuz he's "ownin' the libs!" Unfortunately, most of my "family" have to change their underwear often.

[dubyadiprecession]

8. Not everyone just the majority

[LizBeth]

6. +1

[lagomorph777]

3. It is out of line with other forecasts; scary if accurate.

But frankly I don't think any of the models are very meaningful.

GOTV!

[Hassin Bin Sober]

10. It's about the same as 2016

Trump had a 1 in 4 chance of winning. Same as The Cubs that year.

Now he is a sitting President with all the benefits that position has to offer.

We should take nothing for granted.

I just drove through Indiana and central Illinois. Trump’s followers are apparently not ashamed of him. Huge trump signs everywhere.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. I knew 538 would be lower

His modeling is going to understand that many states are more unlikely for Biden than polling suggests. You can't use current polling alone to evaluate states like Georgia and Texas and North Carolina and Arizona, but that's what many flawed models fail to account for.

[Wounded Bear]

9. We had a GOTV problem in 2016...

I'm hoping we can overcome the industrial grade voter suppression we'll face this time.