Fact is this election is a flat out toss up right now/Don't be fooled into complacency!!

[NewsCenter28]

Go to 538 latest polls.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

If you scroll through, it's been a while since there's been a landslide margin for Joe in any key swing state.

Nate adds new state polls almost daily and they are universally literally showing all the states that will decide the electoral college are literally dead even tied or within the margin of error. Every little bit of activism you can muster would be wonderful right now to make this tossup race tilt more toward Biden.

Want proof? The 2 most recent polls of Minnesota show the race there a dead heat!


Added yesterday

DATES POLLSTER SAMPLE RESULT NET RESULT
President: general election Minn.
AUG 15-18, 2020
C-
Trafalgar Group
1,141 LV Tie More EVEN
KEY
A = ADULTS
RV = REGISTERED VOTERS
V = VOTERS
LV = LIKELY VOTERS
Aug. 11, 2020

President: general election Minn.
AUG 8-10, 2020
A-
Emerson College
733 LV Biden
51%
49%
Trump Biden +2

Emerson is an A- poll.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/minnesota/

If this race was in the bag already, we'd be up big in MN, not tied.

Ignore the national polls and get back to work if you can peeps!

[Awsi Dooger]

1. Your threads are mega dependable

Become an oddsmaker and hang this race as a dead heat right now. See how well you fare

[NewsCenter28]

4. Look, like you, I don't want it to be a dead heat

But FL is within maybe 2-4, AZ 2-4, TX/GA slipping away, NC a tossup.

I won't be happy until we're up +5 in an average of each of the following states: FL or AZ, WI, PA, MI, NC or Georgia. Would be desirous of even small leads in OH and IA also. Basically, I want the Obama 2012 map and polls back! Not this tied in WI and MN bullshit. Marquette showed a MOE WI race last week. Never worried once about MN or WI in 2012. Those are our base states to get to 270.

Anything less and I will not be a happy camper.

[LeftInTX]

6. Texas was never really in play

The polls left a big blank:
Biden 10 points ahead meant: Biden 50 - Trump 40... 10 percent were undecided.

[sandensea]

2. I hear you: we can't take anything for granted

I'm still of the opinion that, barring fraud, Biden will cobble together a comfy electoral college margin.

But in the post Gore v. Bush era, "barring fraud" is a big caveat.

I agree: Biden has to win by sizable margins in as many swing states as possible.

[MFM008]

3. How does he go from

13 points ahead one week and 2 points the next.
Fuk all polls.

[mvd]

5. I don't think it is a tossup

There really haven’t been that many state polls lately. The Emerson College one looked like it had Trump’s approval rating unexpectedly high. We have to act like it is close, however, and not take anything for granted.

[captain queeg]

7. Agreed. We can't get complacent.

[jorgevlorgan]

8. We can easily lose. And if we dont do everything in our power

To win, we will likely lose.

[Thekaspervote]

9. Nope....just now looked at 538..not being complacent but it's NOT a toss up Trafalgar poll rating C-

Mich Biden +7.3 PA Biden +6.5 AZ Biden +3.4 WI Biden +6.7 Biden +MI 5.1 FL Biden 5.3


Here’s 2 polls, the only polls that count and shows swing states

https://www.electoral-vote.com/


https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/

Here’s some other polls with later dates than 8/10

Link to tweet

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[still_one]

33. Forgetting the Talfagar polling. Here is the latest from your Ppolling Numbers in Minnesota

Link to tweet

Emerson and Morning Consult only have Biden up 2 to 3 points over trump in Minnesota

The Cook Political Report is one of the best in the business, and while he has Biden winning in the electoral college, in is very close because that electoral college lead is due to states such as Minnesota and Pennslvania which are listed as "lean Democratic"

https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-07/EC%20Ratings.072320.2.pdf

While it is positive that the lean in those critical states is in our direction, this is not a comfortable lead, and you wisely point out that we should not get complacent, as is easy to do with national polls

[CousinIT]

10. NC looks the same. Dead heat. VOTE. n/t

[Auggie]

11. Huge K&R ... favorable polling never guarantees a win.

[Wanderlust988]

12. You say it's a toss up but only cause of one state?

And they are due to crappy polling firms? I think you're being a bit of an alarmist.

Trump's antics tell us that this race is not a toss up. Trump is scared of losing. His own internals show that. That's why he's scared to death.

[Wounded Bear]

13. Complacency did us in 4 years ago...

so I don't really mind the continuous reminder threads.

GOTV!

[Thekaspervote]

14. Yes, but for some the constant drone of the race is a toss up is a big negative

Voters begin to think they are without options or the power to make a difference and don’t vote

[Demsrule86]

21. Exactly...you have to wonder why people post these sort of thread...such crap too.

[still_one]

34. The argument that if the race is a toss up will dissuade people from voting does not apply,

especially this year.

The reverse has also been argued by some. If we are ahead we don't need to vote. That argument was made in 2016 by some who didn't vote, saying they thought Hillary had it in the bag

Both arguments do not apply this time around. There is no ambiguity what the stakes are, and nothing can be taken for granted

As I stated previously the Cook Electoral Analysis, while it has Biden winning the electoral college, it is a very tenuous lead because it depends on leaning Democratic states

https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-07/EC%20Ratings.072320.2.pdf

[JI7]

18. no, that was Comey

[Demsrule86]

22. Complacency had nothing to do with it...Comey and the Green slime party with the Russian

princess Stein had much to do with it...she siphoned off just enough votes to help Trump win...seriously the left Greens elected Trump. And this is a very different year. There was no complacency.

[betsuni]

15. I still don't know what the complacency thing is about.

People who are so stupid they do the both-sides thing?

[Demsrule86]

23. Some want Biden to win but not by a landslide...he was not their first choice you see.

[betsuni]

29. I don't know what the hell to think.

People are weak and stupid.

[Sherman A1]

16. +1

[oswaldactedalone]

17. Definitely a toss-up

at this point. If you think Trump can’t win you don’t understand the depth of the rot the right wing media has created in this country.

[Demsrule86]

24. I for one am sick of hearing about the all powerful right which they are not. We won back the House

and have won every election since Trump's election...so stop. This sort of thing makes voter want to give up with a 'why bother' attitude. Be enthusiastic, confident and show up... we win. Did you even listen to president Obama about convincing people that their vote does indeed matter and we will turn Trump out of office in November.

[Demsrule86]

25. And just to be clear, this election is not a toss up...Biden leads in every poll. Facts are stubborn

things.

[Squinch]

19. And we have to factor in the margin of cheating. So yes. Definitely a toss up.

[Demsrule86]

20. No it is not...so sick of this sort of post which is demoralizing and actually

we need enthusiasm in order to win.

[oswaldactedalone]

27. Not sure what you're talking about

Calling the election a toss-up has nothing to do with enthusiasm. I'll be enthusiastically working to elect Joe and Dems up and down the ballot, and I'm sure others will as well. Do you know what it's like to have elderly ladies walking into your retail location wearing buttons that say, "God Bless President Trump" and other such slogans? One of my former employees, actually a very nice person, listened to Rush while driving our delivery van. Had to speak to him the other day and in the course of conversation, he said that he still thinks Covid is just the flu. That's what he heard on Fox News.

The brainwashing and cognitive rot that the right wing media has created is downright scary and if you're not afraid of it, you're not getting it yet.

[still_one]

31. From the electoral college perspective this is very close and can go either way.

https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-07/EC%20Ratings.072320.2.pdf

Charlie Cook is one of the best in the business, and leaning Democratic and toss-ups is not good enough

The take away message is getting out the vote, and that is by registering people now, encouraging them to vote early when they can, and by mail if they can insure that there ballot delivery will not be delayed or worse, lost

The message from President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton was very clear yesterday, this election cannot be taken for granted

[LeftInTX]

41. It isn't demoralizing

Saying that elections are hacked or our vote doesn't count is demoralizing. Saying the election is rigged is demoralizing. Saying that mail ballots won't count is demoralizing. Saying that Trump won't leave office is demoralizing. Saying that Russia will control the elections is demoralizing.


There is nothing demoralizing about a tight race!!! It means people need to vote!!

[Demsrule86]

26. Trashing.

[USALiberal]

37. Probably a good idea for you!!

[Demsrule86]

38. Yes, I don't need the sky is falling posts and after looking at the polls...without merit.

[USALiberal]

39. LOL, sky is falling? I saw nothing close in the OP. Nice try! Reality! nt

[still_one]

28. The OP is right. Charlie Cook's electoral ratings in July demonstrate that

https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-07/EC%20Ratings.072320.2.pdf

What is disturbing is states like Minnesota are so close

In the Cook electoral college analysis, the leaning Democratic states are:

Florida (29)
Michigan (16)
Minnesota (10)
Nebraska 2nd CD (1)
New Hampshire (4)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

and the toss up states are:

Arizona (11)
Georgia (16)
Maine 2nd CD (1)
North Carolina (15)

The states that lean republican are:

Iowa (6)
Ohio (18)
Texas (38)

It is also being reported that the Convention viewership is down significantly from 2016, and that adds a level of uncertainty also

The positive analysis from the Cook Report is that Biden leads in the electoral collge

308 Biden to 187 trump

but based on the lean Democratic and toss up states, it is a very tenuous lead.

we cannot have 47% not voting, as in 2016

As everyone has been saying, voting turnout is critical. Registering to vote, and voting early in big numbers are the key to winning or losing

[oswaldactedalone]

30. You are correct

Joe's leads are tenuous, that's the best description. The real problem is Dems like DemsRule86 who keep their heads in the sand and refuse to see what's going on around them.

[still_one]

32. We are on the same page Oswald.

[obamanut2012]

35. no personal attacks

[SlogginThroughIt]

40. That is bullshit to call out a poster like that!

Cut that shit out!

[Music Man]

36. Your point is very well taken.

I appreciate posts like this one (though I recognize that 2020 is not 2016 in terms of the political factors at play and lessons learned).

No one wants to relive the sad experience that was Election Night 2016 and these warning threads come from a place of deep, abiding (a-Biden?) love for our cause. Especially given the lack of scruples of this administration, it would do us all good to mix enthusiasm with steadfast work ethic, assuming nothing.

I have occasionally posted threads pondering about certain polls that show some races tighter than usual, hoping to spark a discussion of the poll, if it's truly cause for concern, and if it's a problematic poll, what are the reasons why it's unreliable, etc. Sometimes people will engage, but many folks will mock or dismiss such a discussion.

I'll be happy if the extremely rude "your concern is noted" response on this site fades away.