Major hurricane could hit Florida Monday, some models suggest: Dr. Jeff Masters

[SaintLouisBlues]

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/a-major-hurricane-could-hit-florida-monday-some-models-suggest/

"Bottom line: the official NHC forecast of a category 1 hurricane near Florida on Monday has high uncertainty, but residents should anticipate that TD 13 could be a major hurricane that will hit Florida that day. That said, it is also possible TD 13 could be a disorganized tropical storm at that time, if significant land interaction with Cuba and Hispaniola occur."

[NightWatcher]

1. So, it could be something or nothing? I've seen NHC guessing it will cross

over south Florida into the Gulf and back up towards the Bend.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/205816_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

[Totally Tunsie]

2. Quick! Call the Sharpie Unit!

(Hope FL stays safe. )

[kurtcagle]

3. Tell Trump

That he has a golf date on Monday. Somebody, please.

[GulfCoast66]

4. If it goes that far north of Cuba I expect it to miss Florida.

If they are that Far East when that far north they normally go to the Carolinas. If seen it wrong once in 2004.

And one thing you can bet on. The 5 day forecast is not normally accurate.

If 3 days from not I will start getting concerned.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. That track is different than most

Others have it angling across the northern Keys/South Florida into the Gulf.

I agree that ones on the east side almost always veer north toward the Carolinas

It is basically 4 days out now

[GulfCoast66]

9. Your right. Just went to the NHC. That a believable track

And a super scary one for the panhandle. Reminds me of Michael.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. This is the site I use

The purple line just showed up. It was not there earlier today. Not a good track for me because it puts the dirty side close to me in southwest Miami

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

On top there are links to NHC Tracks and also Model Plots

The site says South Florida but it's useful for the entire state

[Chainfire]

5. It is that time of year in Florida

Us old Florida hands know what to do, or when to go. The newbies, that haven't witnessed the awesome power of these storms tend to underestimate the storms and do stupid stuff like throw hurricane parties, stay in mobile homes or beach cottages. I sat though a cat 4 two years ago listening to giant trees being pushed over like bowling pins. The trees were literally exploding. You can't imagine the storms until you have seen one up close and personal. It is amazing to view Google Earth the day before and the day after the storm.

[GulfCoast66]

10. We got hit by Irma. Way up in Lake County after traveling the entire state.

We had to get a new roof. Granted, we had a crappy 20 year old one. The new one is guaranteed to 140mph. Should be good this far inland.

[Baclava]

7. This one has a better chance of hitting FL than the one that veered into NYC!

[Grammy23]

8. We did a quick check of our hurricane stash this morning.

Cinderfella made the grocery run. In the next day or two (and depending on how forecasting looks) we’ll remove things in the yard, do all the laundry, straighten up the house (my storm prep must do) and get our flashlights, weather radio and important papers/documents assembled. It is a drill we’ve done many times. If predicted to be close to us, I’ll cook a decent meal so we start off well fed. I’ll make coffee and put it in a thermos and be ready to ride it out. We’ll be ready and our house is not in a storm surge area so we will probably stay unless it were to ramp up to a strong 5. We were here through several storms including Ivan in 2004. Scary but we made it!

NW FL Panhandle

[GulfCoast66]

11. Funny how after enough of them it just seems like part of life in Florida.

We take them seriously and prepare, but it’s been decades since we were upset about them.

[cwydro]

13. I know, I lived in the Keys for over 20 years.

We never even took in the lawn chairs unless it was a three lol.

[GulfCoast66]

14. Well, we are not that Blas.

But get your point.

I’m 80 miles from the nearest coast on a 300 foot hill. Unless it is a cat 3 or above it is like a bad thunderstorm. Like DeLand had a few days ago.

As you know, we in the peninsula regularly get thunderstorms with 50 mile and hour winds. When I first moved here 33 years ago I still remember how shocked I was at the power of our almost daily storms.

Y’all stay safe. The storm looks 5 days out like it could be a problem for you. But we both know how much 5 day forecast mean!

[area51]

15. k&r n/t