Pennsylvania Morning Call poll: Biden up by 4

[Polybius]

https://www.muhlenberg.edu/aug2020election/

[BannonsLiver]

1. I've got Biden +6 in PA in the final tally

Defeatists: Feel Free to bookmark.

[Yeehah]

2. Pittsburgh on one end, Philly on the other

Alabama in the middle

[Drunken Irishman]

3. That MOE is a bit too high. In fact, at 5.5, it's borderline awful.

[samnsara]

4. is this the post kamala pick bump?

[Polybius]

5. It's actually a little tighter than polls a couple of weeks ago

One had Biden up by around 10.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Their last poll had the race tied.

No point in comparing this poll with a completely different one.

[Thekaspervote]

7. 538 avg for PA Biden +6.1 as of this morning

[bookghostwriter]

8. Yep, Biden numbers sliding

This a trend of swing state margins slipping for Biden, and even the overall national lead if you go by the last CNN poll margin dropping to 4. He's GOT to get out in-person again, in all the swing states. Make it safe and socially distanced, like the roll call images of people in cool places in all the states. Or like the drive-in show outside the convention center after the acceptance speech last night.

[Klaralven]

9. Responses were collected 8/11-17, so before the Convention, which really began evening of 8/17.

Restrain your enthusiasm or despair until the second or third week of September when we have a solid selection of polls collected after both conventions.

[Sugarcoated]

10. Two polls released Aug 21st

both have Joe up in PA by 7

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/

[DeminPennswoods]

11. This is LVs, not registered voters

That's why it's closer.

This is their LV screen:

To determine likely voters, only voters who have voted in 1 or more of the last 4 general elections (2016-2019), or who is a new registrant since November of 2016 were included in the sampling frame. In addition, only survey respondents from this frame who indicated that they were “definitely” or “very likely” to vote in the November election were included in the sample.

Reading the entire poll, it seems out of step. Like this finding:

In the midst of the economic struggles that have accompanied the COVID-19 pandemic, only 10% of likely voters in Pennsylvania said their financial situation is worse than it was before Trump took office, with 40% stating their financial situation is better now. These levels are largely unchanged since the last Muhlenberg/Morning Call poll in February.

Also, non-Pennsylvanians should understand that while Dems outnumber Rs in the state, many Dems consistently vote for Rs but have not bothered to change their registration.