2016 vs now

[Proud liberal 80]

I think because of what happened in 2016 people are cautious about the polling. Our side is on edge hoping the polls are accurate. And Trump’s side has a cockiness to them that they don’t believe the polls and they will win just like in 2016.....but the more I look back at things, Clinton was barely ahead in the polls nationally or electorally....I think people have it in their heads that she was winning by a lot because of the way it was portrayed and no one really thinking Trump was going to win. But Biden’s lead nationally and electorally has been steady and way bigger than Clinton’s lead. Hell, Biden is doing better than Obama in 2012.

[unblock]

1. it's not just the numbers, it's the states.

we're in better shape because biden now has a big lead in some key states that were battleground states but appear out of reach of donnie this time.

meanwhile, biden is competitive in previously reliably red states like texas.

biden also has less potential for a sudden drop in support like what happened to hillary because republicans and the media haven't been attacking him for a quarter-century the way they smeared hillary.


but beware of fighting the previous war. we're winning in terms of getting majority vote, but that's not where the real battle will be. the real battle is getting our votes to count and getting them to count in the right states, and surviving the legal challenges and the media smears because we all know donnie's going to shout "fraud" no matter what.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. The biggest difference between 2016 & now came down to undecided voters & third party voters.

There were a lot more of 'em, so, any Clinton lead was suspect. We just assumed that, eventually, those undecided voters would break for Clinton. In fact, they either broke for Trump or voted third party.

On this day in 2016, Clinton led Trump, on average, 47.2-41.8.

That's a pretty solid margin (5.4 points). But that meant 11% of the vote was either undecided or committed to a third party candidate. Clinton was also three-points below 50% nationally.

Between this point, and the election day, Clinton would see some growth in her lead (a few times, but most specifically, after the Access Hollywood tape) but only led by 48+ points nationally 18 times. between Aug. 23 and election day. Most of the rest of the campaign, including the final day of the election, Clinton was polling below 48%.

Currently, Biden leads 50-42.4 over Trump for a margin of 7.6. Not only is his margin basically two points better than Clinton - he's polling three-points better than her 47%. More importantly, only 7.6% are either undecided or voting third party. That's significant, especially since it means Biden is basically at a majority already.

But the biggest take away is that the last time Biden was averaging lower than 48% nationally was all the way back on May 26th.

Essentially three months ago.

Biden has consistently polled higher than Clinton did by a large margin.

In fact, he has only dipped below 49% once since that time (and it was still 48.7, so barely below it).

Trump is in a bad spot. Especially since undecided voters are likely to break more toward Biden according to polls. If the election were today, Biden would likely win the undecided vote by 60 or so percent and the national popular vote by 54% to Trump's 43%.

[Atticus]

3. Several reputable polls had Clinton with a 10-12 point lead in August, 2016. nt

[calguy]

4. Also no significant third party this time

Remember that Jill Stein got way more votes than Hillary's margin of loss in several key states that we narrowly lost. No Jill Stein this time. Kanye will cost us 12 votes in each state where he makes the ballot.