CBS National poll: Biden +10

[brooklynite]

Link to tweet

[Funtatlaguy]

1. unchanged from last week. A little disappointing. No convention bump.

[calguy]

2. There are very few undecided voters to give either candidate a bounce

Unless something landmark happens between now and then, these polls will likely only change a few points in either direction until the election.

[Blasphemer]

3. Here's a good piece discussing how "Convention bumps" have changed in recent years...

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/21/joe-biden-convention-bounce-400083

I think most of the electorate is pretty locked in.

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. When I clicked through to the YouGov site it says Reg voters, not LV.

Still, Joe over 50%, 10 point lead, only 6% undecided/3rd party...I like it.

[grobertj]

6. Typically, undecided's break from the challenger at the last minute.

If that holds, we could be looking at 10-12% win which might carry 40 states.

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. Did you mean for the challenger? Nt

[wolfie54]

5. 270 to win vs other pollsters

Hi There
I tend to look at 270 since they seem to be more conservative in their forecasts. Some of the others are soo far in left field they have Biden winning by over 320 electoral votes. This is nuts.

Now with the post office fiasco I have added two more levels to my tally.

The first is any state (based on 270) with less than a 10 point lead is given to the other party and the other is states whose legislatures are willing to cheat (playing games with the votes or who can vote) and less than a 10 point Dem lead are given to the DUck

In the first case above Biden still wins but it is very close. in the next case the Duck wins.

[grobertj]

7. It's mathematically impossible for a 10 point lead to lose the electoral college.