Charlie Cook - Not a close race

[Hawaii Hiker]

https://cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/national/national-politics/many-are-afraid-say-it-not-close-race

He is definitely Mr. Safe, not one to make outlandish predictions....

[Wanderlust988]

1. Crap polls has everyone freaking today

CNBC/Change Research and Rasmussen are GOP friendly polls from the beginning. Not sure why everyone is freaking out.

[sandensea]

3. Leave it to Rassmessen to get the poll gaslighting going

Why the media likes to pretend it's not a Repug sockpuppet, is beyond me.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. 2016 has us rattled, and good for it

Keep working hard, get out the vote, donate, volunteer.

But know that this isn't really a close race yet. It could become one, but right now Biden would win in a landslide or at worst in a near landslide.

[Hawaii Hiker]

5. I've been donating

Thus far to Biden campaign, Steve Bullock, Sara Gideon, & Teresa Greenfeld....

[gibraltar72]

15. I've donated to roughly 17 campaigns.

One has sent a thank you. Many have sent tons of emails asking for more. The one that said thanks Sara Gideon. That postcard is on my dining room table. My wife noticed that. Someone in that campaign is taking care of things that matter. She will definitely get more. I wish others would pay attention to little things.

[Hawaii Hiker]

16. Yeah the more you give, the more you

get those emails that say (paraphrasing) We immediately need to raise $1 million by midnight otherwise we won't meet our goal and will be in danger of not having the funds necessary to compete.....Please donate and your donation will be triple matched.....Thank you..


Now i exaggerate a bit, but every single day doom & gloom emails come from candiates asking for money.....And I don't think I've ever received a thank you.....I first donated to Obama during the 2008 campaign & subsequently to his 2012 campaign, HRC's campaign, and numerous senate candiates as well.....

[gibraltar72]

20. I like the ones that haven't changed in two months

Citing polls where they are very close. When I've just read about one that says they are 12 points up. I get it but sometimes I think insulting peoples intelligence isn't the best tactic.

[sweetloukillbot]

4. GOTV like it's close

We're ahead. By what looks like a lot. We just need to not rest on our laurels, and not succumb to dread.

[lagomorph777]

6. Worth reading the whole story.

I feel like I can breathe for a few more minutes.

[uponit7771]

7. Cause 1. state level polls for 2016 have yet to answer for 3rd part 300% over performing in ...

... swing states.

2. Most (not all) polling companies will ... NOT ... take in effect voter suppression. For some reason the US voting system is a precious flower and saying its fucked up in anyway gets mucho agro.

3. Lets say Russia wasn't involved, they were but polling companies in swing states never show how there was a 4% swing on the avg towards Trump in the swing states after Commey

NOTE: The media CONTINUES to show national numbers that are registered voters vs swing state polls with likely voters and low MOE.

Pay attention to swing state likely voter polling with lose margin of error.

[sweetloukillbot]

8. Another factor in the tighter state polling...

Pollster who adjusts the numbers to account for "Shy Trump Voters." Not only is the practice dubious to begin with, but how many "shy Trumpers" are there still? Since he won, they're fucking crowing about it everywhere.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. That variable has historical precedent

Right wingers were cynical about media and pollsters long before Trump. The term "Shy Tory" was coined toward British conservatives who were under reported in pre election polling along with exit polling.

I have to believe there is an under counted Trump vote. After all, the vast majority of variables have not changed:

* Same candidate
* Same messaging
* Only 4 years later
* Same base

I think it would be foolish to adjust away from 2016

Regardless, the key variable is independent voters. They will decide this race. We are not going to defeat Trump based on turnout or crossover voters. That stuff is glorified crap. The basics do not change.

[Iliyah]

14. Biden has shy voters too . . .

[Beringia]

9. Except we are in the land of gangsters

[JI7]

10. Let's act like it is a close race but has potential to win big based on how hard we work

We also know they will cheat.

[qazplm135]

11. Right now he's right

not sure that's going to be the case on election day.

[beachbumbob]

12. Remember lead up to 2018 and media doing all they can

to create an illusion that GOP wasn't going to have their ass kicked

[Thekaspervote]

17. Can we go with the expert here, that being Cook Political..please

[BannonsLiver]

18. Gotta love the self assured wannabe experts in the thread who think they're better at this than Cook

Spoiler alert: You are not.

[malaise]

19. The only number I am watching is Covid 19 deaths

The Con is history!

[nsd]

21. K & R