Are we about to have a streak of 1 term presidents?

[Dr. Jack]

The U.S. has only had 3 two term presidents in a row twice. Once way back in the early 1800s and again with Clinton, Bush, and Obama. We have never had 4 in a row which is one of the many reasons why a 2nd Trump term would be highly unusual. And since things tends to revert to the mean after a long, unusual period like we had with Clinton, W., and Obama I do wonder if we are going to swing in the totally opposite direction starting with Trump. Now yes, I know the election isn't over yet and vote and all that good stuff but objectively Trump appears very likely to be heading for defeat or in other words, a one term president. Which would lead us to President Biden. Biden has given many indications and logic would say he almost certainly wouldn't run for reelection in 2024. That would give us 2 one term presidents in a row. And let's be optimistic and say VP Harris would be the likey frontrunner in 2024 and would more likely than not win. But by 2028, after 8 years of Dem presidents, the GOP would probably have the leg up. We all know Americans don't like one party in the white house for too long, potentially givings us 1 term president #3.

Who knows what would happen 12 years from now but is there not a case to be made that we are likely heading for a streak of 1 term presidents between 2016 and 2028 or 2032?

[PJMcK]

1. Let's first make sure Trump starts the trend (n/t)

[Blue_true]

10. Bingo. Then we can speculate about other things. nt

[still_one]

2. Biden has made no such claim that he would not run for re-election in 2024. That is media bullshit,

and in fact the interview he had on ABC news with Kamala Harris he made that very clear

[Thomas Hurt]

4. That is also right wing conspiracy that I have seen in social media...

this propaganda being that Harris is the real socialist threat and Biden is just teeing up the recurring con fantasy of a socialist apocalypse.

[still_one]

5. So much misinformation going out on the airwaves

[Blue_true]

11. Why would he even talk about his feelings on one term in a positive light?

That would lead some to conclude that maybe he is unsure of term number 1.

The job that Biden will have fixing the country is going to be brutal. It would be taxing even on a person as young as Presidents Clinton and Obama were when they first assumed office. Trump has turned the country into a fractured, festering mess - Joe will be tasked with fixing that and get groups that now see each other as enemies to work together, plus he will have the most dangerous pathogens in over 100 years to deal with and solve, oh, and he will have increasingly powerful storms wreaking natural havoc.

I would not be surprised that if Democrats hold the Senate and House after the 2022 election, he announces that he won’t be running for re-election, under those conditions republicans can’t instantly make him a lame duck President for two years. We know that republicans will be fielding a new person in 2024, Biden may want to give Harris a jump on the Democratic field and put a chill into potential rivals (and I honestly hope there will not be any).

[Sherman A1]

3. Interesting

Hopefully by the time the next Republican is sworn in to office they have found a way to reform their party enough to take the complete Wackos out of the mix.

[Blue_true]

12. Given that the Republican Party is controlled by whackos, that seems unlikely.

We see polls that say 53% of republicans don’t think that 170,000 people dead from COVID19 is a problem, and even among the somewhat sane 47%, almost 100% of them will be voting for Trump.

From our perspective, we should hope that the Republican Party has shrunk measurably since 2016, and that African American and Latino voters perform at a higher voting level for Democrats than in 2016. One positive is that suburban White women are not as much for Trump as they were in 2016, that should help a lot in states like Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida, Texas and Arizona.

As far as republicans picking a sane nominee in 2024? Don’t bet on that happening, race haters and over the moon evangelicals wholly own that party, the person that emerges as their nominee will be a nutjob like Cruz or Cotton.

[Sherman A1]

19. I don't disagree however

I expressed a hope that they would be rid of the Wackos, not an expectation that would come to pass.

[Chainfire]

6. The pendulum is swinging hard now days, no more small swings around the center,

so it could be that two terms and the stabilization that goes with them are gone for a while. If Trump gets a second term, our problems will be over, because the nation as we once knew it may well be free of pesky elections going forward. Nothing says peace, stability and harmony like a single party right wing government. Why we could end up with a thousand year Reich.

[former9thward]

7. It would be far more healthy if we have one term six year presidents.

Now, we have a new president immediately campaigning for a new term. That has been going on for decades. It is not healthy.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

8. If we had one term six year presidents

every president would be immediately a lame duck. And the campaigns would be absolutely not stop.

What we need is some kind of brake on the constant campaigning, and I'm not exactly sure how to do that.

[Blue_true]

13. True. And the risk of a nationalist winning and totally gumming up our democracy grows even higher

then. Trump is bad enough, but he won’t get six years to totally corrupt government. We see that even with less than four years, he has totally demolished the EPA, The Interior, much of Justice, The Treasury and the FED. Think of the damaging changes he could make in six years, he could make elections irrelevant, like Orban has done in Hungary and like the Czech leader is trying to do.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

16. Very good points.

But even without a horror like Trump in office, one six year term is A Very Bad Idea.

[oasis]

9. Morally bankrupt cowardly GOP will be radioactive for 40 years.

2060 comeback maybe.

[Blue_true]

14. I see them going the way of the Whigs.

They will go loudly in this age of instant media, but with what looks like fewer young people buying in to their ideology, they have a big problem. People dismiss them as coopting BLM, but unlike the White kids that participated in Vietnam War protests, this generation of White kids really have nothing to gain other that the moral imperative of helping to bring about a more just society, I believe that they are the real deal, unlike most of their 60s era counterparts. So the weight of demographic changes and fewer young Whites buying into republicanism will doom the Republican Party, it has already started if one looks at the vast majority of special elections and the 2018 midterms.

[oasis]

15. I hope Newt Gingrich and Pat Buchanon hang on for decades,

hoping for a GOP revival that never comes.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

17. That's my read

We're politically divided, and we are in the painful transition from white-majority to white-plurality rule.

To be fair, the 19th-century string of one-termers was exacerbated by deaths-in-office.

I also think that we may end up with three or possibly four viable "parties" by 2028. I put that in quotes because a party may be little more than a slate supporting a Presidential candidate.

[Initech]

18. Well, BLM is already starting their own party.

And I actually think AOC and Bernie Sanders could take charge and form their own party after Biden's presidency. Then on the right, I could see the Trumpers deflect and start their own political party. Hell, Kanye West could probably start his own party. There's many ways this could go.

[Klaralven]

20. After Andrew Jackson, we had 8 presidents in 24 years

Van Buren, Harrison, Tyler, Polk, Taylor, Fillmore, Pierce, and Buchanan.

There was a thread recently about how political polarization may be getting to a level similar to the pre-Civil War period.