Charlie Cook: Many Are Afraid To Say It, but This Is Not a Close Race

[brooklynite]

Cook Political Report

As Joe Biden was preparing to give his presidential nomination acceptance speech Thursday night, for me like so many others it was a time to reflect on where the race stands. I was thinking about the the Hans Christian Anderson fable “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” which many have cited in writings and cartoons criticizing President Trump. Each has put a slightly different contemporary spin on the 1837 story, in which a pair of swindlers convince a vain king that they could weave fabulous clothes for him with a magic fabric that could not be seen by anyone who was stupid or incompetent. The king commissioned the faux-tailors to make him a suit of clothes, checking on their work, watching the pair at their looms as they pretended to weave, not letting on that he could not see the fabric, lest people think him a fool. Once presented with the “clothes,” he strutted through the streets wearing nothing, no one letting on that they, too, could not see the clothes. Finally, a young boy cries out, “But he has nothing on!”

I think about the story in the context of this election, but not in a way that compares Trump to the king. Rather, I think about it in terms of the political analysts, pollsters, and pundits who refuse to state publicly what the data plainly show: that it is very, very unlikely Trump will win 270 electoral votes and the election.

Blame the election of 2016. Virtually everyone but the most die-hard Trump backers that year felt he would lose. Few forecasters thought it was possible for a candidate to lose the national popular vote by over 2 percentage points (nearly 3 million votes) and still win enough states to reach 270 electoral votes. You had to go back to 1876, when Samuel Tilden won the popular vote by 3 points yet lost the electoral vote 185 to 184, to see a similar scenario play out.

Between 1876 and 2016, the popular vote and the Electoral College diverged only two other times: in 1888, when Grover Cleveland won the popular vote by eight-tenths of a point but lost to Benjamin Harrison, and 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote by a half-point but George W. Bush won the electoral vote on a 537-vote win in Florida.

[malaise]

1. Tell them Charlie

ByeDon!

[Demsrule86]

13. He is going to lose...terrible response to Covid, an econonomic debacle...civil unrest really egged

on by Trump...The dire America that Trump speaks of if Biden wins is what Trump has already created...Trump is not not Nixon...he is Humphrey.

[Thomas Hurt]

2. Yeah, well lets not get ahead of ourselves and call it so, until the Pig concedes...

[Demsrule86]

14. He may never concede...but he will be out of the White House just the same.

[Kahuna]

33. Who cares if he concedes? The election can be certified without his concession.

If he wants to be dragged out of the White House, even better.

[Oscarthegreat]

89. Concede?

Unfortunately there is no scenario in which the Orange Turd would concede. We will be living in a new reality after November 3rd, one way or the other.

[exboyfil]

3. They are presupposing a "fair" election

The only hope is to run up the score (like 2012 when I think they already had the 2004 Ohio plan ready to roll). You can tell by Karl Rove's reaction. Under the surface they knew to not pull the trigger because of the possibility of being exposed for no good reason.

In addition to the three firewall states, we need one or two others to have a chance.

[NewJeffCT]

5. 2012 was closer than people think

Obama won Florida by less than 1%, Ohio by less than 3% and Virginia by less than 4%

Biden needs to beat the Obama 2008 margins - like Clinton 1996, Bush 1988 type margins.

[Norbert]

19. The GOP was making Obamacare to be a bogeyman

It was one thing they could run on, and of course on the RW fringes, he was a black man.

The Dems are running on the inept COVID-19 response, racial unrest, the depressed economy and the fact that the orange anus is in serious need of a personality transplant.

I personally am not worried whether Biden/Harris will win, just be how much. I want as convincing a win as we can get.

[radius777]

4. Problem is Trump is a cheater who will do/say anything to win.

We saw what happened in 2016, and we see what's happening w/the USPS.

So many take the polls w/a grain of salt, knowing we need margin of victory that overcome the 'cheating factor'.

Also national polls are not as important, as the election will come down to 6 or so swing states.

[jaxexpat]

54. He's already doing/done "everything" to win.

The automated mail sorters are STILL off line and "no overtime/schedule first, cost saving mandates" are still the guidelines the USPS works by today. This despite the "good scolding" from the House of Representatives given to the postmaster general. He's NOT undoing the damage he has done. He's sitting pretty, thumbing his entitled nose at Democrats, in full knowledge that the USPS is broken where it will certainly count, in the swing states and anywhere voters will vote by mail. Unless he is forced to correct the plan he's implemented the USPS will still be BROKEN in November. And it gets worse, some of the sorting machinery has been dismantled and trashed, as in dumpsters full of sorting machinery. I'm guessing there will be NO WAY to get those sorters replaced in time for election day.

This election is FAR from a done deal. Too many in those critical swing states still intend to vote by mail. I think that's exactly what Trump is hoping for.

[Yeehah]

6. My faith in democracy, the American people and the electoral process

was shaken as I saw George AWOL Bush sworn in twice and nazi Trump sworn in.

I would like to see the outdated electoral college eliminated and the requirement of two senators for pieces of real estate eliminated. Perhaps states with a population below a certain threshold should have only one senator.

[smirkymonkey]

20. +1000

[jaxexpat]

57. Maybe "representation without taxation(intrinsic value)" is its own kind of tyranny.

[RicROC]

62. yes, down with the Electoral College

along with the Senate. The Senate has outlived its purpose. OR combine it with the House of Representatives with 4 year terms for the 'Senators'. The total representatives would remain the same, except that two positions are reserved for the 'Senators'

[jayschool2013]

64. That's the Nebraska unicameral legislative model

One big house, that's it. The only check is the governor's veto.

[Yeehah]

76. I could support having a senate with 6-year terms

but apportioned by population. Still kind of an upper house but apportioned fairly by population.

[argyl]

68. Any state with only one House Rep. should have only one Senator.

That's a start, anyway.

[Glorfindel]

78. The Senate should be apportioned exactly like the House of Representatives

That would provide each state with at least one Senator, but California, for example, would have 53 senators, elected to six-year terms, giving it the clout it deserves in Congress. Wyoming, the least populous state, would have one senator and one representative. This, of course, will never happen. It makes too much sense.

[ego_nation]

7. I've been waiting 4 years to cast a vote against that asshole.

I’m doing it regardless of what the polls say. It’s cathartic.

And I’m sure I’m far from being the only one who feels this way. Nobody is going to rest on their laurels in this election.

[edhopper]

8. That's cute

pretending that the election will be fair and they will allow everyone to vote and then count all the votes.

[Demsrule86]

16. So what are you saying is that we should all stay home and give up...the Donald is bound to win

because he is so smart and all- Every election since Trump won in 16 has gone our way. We have a deadly pandemic with 180,000 dead and economy on life support. It won't be close. You know what is not cute? That would be doom and gloom which depresses the vote. If people think as you do why would they bother to go to the polls?

[Squinch]

28. Why do you keep doing this?? That poster said nothing of the sort!!

[Demsrule86]

34. That is what it sounds like to me...you are cute for believing we can win because massive

cheating will defeat us no matter what the polls say...how am I misreading this post? I work elections every year and if people feel hopeless, they don't vote.

[kcr]

36. Sorry, but it is effectively what he's saying

[Squinch]

56. No, really, it isn't. Not even close.

[amuse bouche]

65. Even with some cheating, it will not be close. Traitor trump and his band of idiots are getting

wiped off the map

[edhopper]

58. Not at all

I am saying it is foolish to think it is in the bag and won't be close.

[edhopper]

55. Read the OP

saying it isn't a close race when the GOP will cheat in every way they can is what is damaging. Not me saying it's will take all we have to win.
Keep telling people it's in the bag and see what happens.

[Dios Mio]

35. Yep yep. That's my concern.

[Chichiri]

9. Here's the key takeaway

Yes, there are things that could tilt this race: shenanigans at the Postal Service, voter confusion about how to vote, states' inability to process and count ballots on time, to name a few. But the race has to get much closer before these can possibly make a difference in a few key states.

Trump was the candidate of change in 2016. Now, Americans are very unhappy with where the country is and how he has handled his tenure. How does an incumbent prevail in the face of this? I just don’t see how the reasons why Trump was underestimated then still apply now. This shoe is on a different foot. So I am going to be like the kid saying that the emperor has no clothes.

[Demsrule86]

17. The Biden campaign has a new meme out...sending mail..."How will you vote". They are on this.

I will be calling on Saturday and Sunday in Ohio...go on the website. Get involved. We can do this fired up and ready to go.

[Hekate]

10. The deliberate, malicious destruction of the USPS plus gerrymandering may result in a "win"...

...for the Trumpistas. In addition, various jurisdictions cull voter rolls and throw out applications for mail-in ballots & ballots themselves, wholesale.

We remain in great peril. It is clear the majority of Americans want Trump gone — but they are using every dirty trick in the book.

[Demsrule86]

18. And it isn't going to work this time...they tried every dirty trick in 18 and we still took the

House.

[obamanut2012]

48. Gerrymandering has nothing to do with the Presidential election

[Squinch]

11. I'll relax the day Joe is inaugurated.

[Demsrule86]

21. Don't relax...work the campaign. But please people (not saying you) stop with the demoralizing

posts about how it is no use...we can't win because we can win. That sort of thing discourages voting.

[Squinch]

23. Jesus. No one is saying "we can't win because we can't win." Except you.

Back on ignore you go.

[Demsrule86]

37. Fine...it just raises my blood pressure to hear how massive cheating will cause us to lose.

It won't.

[obamanut2012]

49. Mnay posters keep implying that

The poster you are responding to is right.

[calimary]

80. Me, too. From what little I could stand to watch of the CONvention, especially the last two nights,

I'm nervous now.

I hate to admit it.

Dear God, all those lies. ALL THOSE LIES! That false, distorted, misleading, untrue picture they painted. Just what their true believers longed to hear - that their preferences and worldview were totally validated. ALL THOSE LIES! That the virus is in the past tense. That this so-called "pResident" is compassionate, effective, fast-responding, thorough, informed, and a real leader like it says in the fairy tales they also cling to. How everything going wrong now is Biden's fault (and that he somehow caused!?!?!? And will make even worse if he gets into power?!?!?!?)

You know in your gut that it's exactly what Dumbfuckistan wants to hear. To reinforce their worldview from deep within that bubble world they'd rather live in and acknowledge. It was projection on a scale we've never seen or heard before. All the shit going on now, ON donald's WATCH, WHILE HE'S in power, that's somehow foisted off on the "he's not even President yet". But they're gonna swallow it whole.

One of the talking heads - early this morning - expressed some serious concern. Author/columnist Anand Giridharadas said he was starting to worry. The sales pitch was VERY convincing and shrewdly tied to outbreaks of violence and destruction by opportunists, looters, and other assorted shit-stirrers looking to exploit large numbers of protesters. Sorry donald, sorry fans-of-donald, NONE of that was caused or directed by Joe Biden. OR organization Democrats - capital "D," AND small "d" also. And I listened to this fellow and a troubling feeling came over me - "hey, dude, you too?" He was describing how I'd been feeling over this past week - with this AVALANCHE of lies and distortions and misrepresentations. How fast he sprang into action against the coronavirus? Hell, he spent two months calling it a hoax? They sold that over and over and over all week! And that's just one example!*



* On edit - this bothered me so much that I determined to go back and find who expressed that feeling in a TV interview. I couldn't think of his name but his appearance - especially this prominent (and high) headful of silver hair) - was unforgettable. I checked my notes - it was from this morning's "Morning Joe" on MSNBC. Just really struck me that somebody else was putting words to my new worrying. He was feeling it, himself.

That DOES NOT, however, mean that I'm gonna let that sense of dread keep me from working my tail off to make sure the nightmare conclusion does NOT become reality!

[Squinch]

81. All of this. I agree with all of this. I think we will win. But I don't think it will be

easy by any stretch of the imagination. And the idea that we need to quash anyone who states the obvious, that this will be the fight of our lives, is absurd.

This will be the fight of our lives. We are not there yet by any stretch of anyone's imagination. We cannot get comfortable.

[steve2470]

88. agreed x a billion ! nt

[empedocles]

12. traitortrump is not all about 'the race', or the polls, or Electoral College. trump will settle for

continued WH residence - no matter what it takes.

[Demsrule86]

22. There is no way that will happen ...if he loses on November 6th, he is out. Just stop it.

Our Republic will hold.

[empedocles]

32. I do think the Republic will hold. I do hope the Election will have the Dems decisively won.

However, 'certainty' is not a given.

[Demsrule86]

38. No one says we are 'certain' but it is very likely Trump will lose in a landslide given his terrible

job.

[obamanut2012]

52. And? The White House has nothing to do with the election

Or who is actually President.

January 20, 2021 at noon is all that matters. Period.

[Chiyo-chichi]

24. If all the votes had been counted in FL in 2000 in a fair, statewide recount, Gore would have won.

Sorry to belabor an off-topic point here, but when I see this "Bush won by 537 votes" point repeated, I have to point this out.

This is actually relevant to this article as is demonstrates that
a) anything can happen
b) we must stay vigilant
and
c) like the Bush-supporters did, we must use every resource at our disposal to send Trump packing!

[Squinch]

25. Like Hillary says, Joe should not concede under any circumstances until all votes are counted.

Not that he's going to need to concede, but let's not forget that Gore won his election.

[Ferrets are Cool]

31. Thank you!

[Sherman A1]

26. "I think about it in terms of the political analysts, pollsters, and pundits who refuse to state..."

Those folks mentioned are engaging in job security. If it is not a narrow "horse race" you are less likely to tune into their endless 24/7 breaking noise drivel that fills airtime (or column inches) between ads for drugs we never knew we needed.

They know exactly what is going on, what will likely happen and are doing their best to keep the paycheck coming into their bank accounts.

[Demsrule86]

40. +1000 exactly

[Satch59]

27. The 2018 midterms turnout the turnout for the primaries...

I keep thinking that the turnout, the hours people stood in line, the large increase of the house, that has to be a positive sign of what’s to come this election? The idiots who decided to take a chance on Trump in ‘16 have now seen what a disaster he is. His fan base won’t budge but those who voted for Obama, then Trump? Can’t see them doing it again... Just my thoughts...and hopes of course.

[Demsrule86]

41. This is exactly what I think also.

[Poiuyt]

29. Charlie Cook is one of the best and most unbiased political analysts out there

I read that article yesterday and it brought happiness into my life.

[Ferrets are Cool]

30. We MUST act as though we are 5 points behind

do NOT get complacent. Please!!!

[Demsrule86]

43. Acting like we are five points behind and working the campaign great...but opining that we are

five points behind on social media discourages voters. People are less likely to vote if they think their side is losing. I have seen it before many times.

[tinrobot]

69. Here's the mantra: We are ahead, but it MUST be a blowout. Vote like your life depends on it.

Nobody stays home this year. This one is too important.

[Demsrule86]

72. Works for me...let send Trump packing with a truly humiliating defeat.

[Ferrets are Cool]

85. It could go either way, IMO

I believe the NBA boycott/strike will have a HUGE impact on the AA vote. It was really frustrating to see that only 20% of NBA players have ever voted. I do believe this will change during this election.
If the AA population will vote in mass (and no, I am not putting this all on their shoulders) we should win in a landslide.

[Calista241]

39. Biden is +3.7 in the battleground states.

We're going to have to be a hell of a lot higher than that to pull this thing off.

[Klaralven]

42. The conventions are just the outer rain bands - There's a Category 4 campaign ahead.

Charlie's piece was from 8/21, a week ago.

"This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 21, 2020"

[Shoonra]

44. Do not become over-confident

Telling yourself and others that Biden is sure to win only encourages people who would vote for Biden to stay home on Election Day rather than stand in line to cast a ballot. And that means Trump could win.
Remember the old fable of the hare and the tortoise.
Be sure to vote!

[bucolic_frolic]

45. My tea leaves

Speaker Pelosi says Trump 'will be leaving'. No doubt there.

Trump promises to end Social Security. Are those the words of someone who wants to win?

So call me unsurprised by Charlie Cook's opinion. We all know from American political history, when an extreme is reached, the pendulum swings back.

I was puzzled yesterday, though, by a statement from Tim Miller I think his name was, on with Nicole Wallace. He attributed 2016 to lingering "hatred of the Clintons". She just let that slide past, but seriously? What was it Republicans disliked about them so much? Even his scandal was well within Republican norms.

[dsharp88]

46. The race begins and ends on November 3rd. No one is ahead yet.

We don't what factors will be in play in November. We don't know how much Russian interference or manipulation will affect the vote tabulations. Remember, the win doesn't go to the person with the most votes. The win goes to the person who gets the most votes counted.

[Roc2020]

47. he is so right. This race is a blowout

for Biden. It's just so many democrats are trembling nervous thinking back to 2016. But this is 2020. Nothing in 2016 is the same as 2020. Nothing. Biden is going to spank Trump so hard the only problem is the Dems getting too confident and lose the house in 2022.

[Woodwizard]

50. After 2016

I am not complacent at all, the GOP will be throwing everything they can to invalidate as many votes as possible I foresee the 2000 election times 100. This is going to be a mess. I doubt the winner will be clear, and will cause more division no matter which way it goes. This country is broken a long road ahead to fix it if possible.

[BannonsLiver]

51. Cook is the gold standard

He was doing this before Nate Silver was shitting in his diapers. And he’s certainly better at what he does than any of the armchair strategists in the thread.

[obamanut2012]

61. Yup, agree

I think folks don't know who he is.

I also trust Sabato more than 538/Silver, too.

[BannonsLiver]

84. Sabato is awesome too

Both are people whose opinion should be valued more but as you mentioned they aren’t as well known as those who are in the business of chasing clicks.

[radius777]

79. Lots of 'gold standard' people got in wrong in 2016.

Almost everyone had Hillary w/high odds of winning, that's what scares people, especially when dealing w/Trump and his allies who will do anything to win.

This election is different in many ways, but at the center is stil the cheater Trump who now has the power of the presidency to enable his cheating.

It's why Dems need to realize this and take a more 'forward' position instead of 'prevent defense'. IOW, don't believe the polls, fight like we're tied.

[BannonsLiver]

83. Breaking: This isn't 2016

[love_katz]

53. I would bet that many of us have PTSD from 2016.

We thought Agolf Twitler could not win. I can understand the high level of anxiety, in both individual and collective levels. With that said, we need to keep working to increase our lead, no mistake on that, but we also need to not talk ourselves into defeat. We all know that the stakes are unbearably high, and that we can not afford to lose, so it isn't surprising that many of us can't relax until we have successfully flushed the turd, and as many of his enablers as we can manage to get rid of. But, I would also bet that Twitler and his Russian troll helpers would just love it if they can dissuade us from voting. Please, Don't Fall For It!!! Here's hoping that we bury them and their agenda so deep that they are never seen again!

[Thekaspervote]

59. Thx for posting!! It's needed this morning. I have this article bookmarked for when I'm down

Here’s another gold standard that is predicting a Biden win.

Moody Analytics has called every race correctly since 1980, less 2016. Pre-pandemic they said dotard would sail to victory..not anymore. It’s a very long read, but interesting... based on hard facts, not telephone polls.

If you want to skip to the prediction, see page 8 under the heading what will happen in 2020?

https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/us-presidential-election-update

[Pepsidog]

60. What worries me is that Republicans have bit yet jumped ship. What do they know? Also Trump legal

team is laying the groundwork to contest the election suing 67 counties in Pa and I am sure other states. And articles about senior citizens getting unsolicited absentee ballot requests from other States they have no connection with. Seems like Rs are creating voter fraud to support their absurd claims. I will bit rest until this nightmare is over and Drump is dragged out of TWH.

[Demsrule86]

73. It is too late for them.

[Thekaspervote]

75. Biden has amassed a team of 600 attorneys to deal with any shenanigans they will throw at him

Unless the election is close, and they can ask for a recount, he has no way forward. He can say he’s gonna sue, let him..that’s him mo

[Squinch]

82. Really! I didn't know he had already put that team together. That is great to hear.

[Pepsidog]

86. Happy to hear that.

[JHB]

63. That's because it ain't over 'til it's over.

[LostinRed]

66. Nice analysis thanks for sharing

After watching, yes I watch all 70 minutes, his very boring speech it made me sure we’re going to win on November. Biden will be President and this long nightmare will finally be over

[IronLionZion]

67. Hillary was kicking his fat ass 4 years ago so take nothing for granted.

There are too many factors, surprises, and dirty tricks to try to stop our people from voting.

[Demsrule86]

74. No she wasn't. Hillary after being destroyed by the GOP attacks never had the numbers Joe has.

[IronLionZion]

77. If you say so

[DFW]

70. Charlie Cook is usually spot on, but there are additional factors to be counted in

The Republicans respect Charlie Cook as much as we do. That is a nice compliment to Charlie, but to us, it should be a BIG warning sign, and no message of comfort.

If they know they will lose (note to Republican trolls--to you, that's "loose&quot , they have two choices: take their lumps and improve their message next time, or.........

CHEAT. Specifically, and in no particular order:

Prevent legitimately registered voters from voting
Pre-program electronic vote-counting machines to give Republicans an edge, with trained hackers standing by, if necessary
Harass and intimidate voters in heavily Democratic areas, to frighten them away from polling locations
Decrease the number of physical locations where citizens can vote--drastically, if possible.
Make millions of robocalls providing voters in heavily Democratic areas with false information about place, time, date and eligibility to vote. In some instances, have live people do this if they are sure of not getting traced.
Install corrupt election officials to suppress votes for Democrats and make them vanish, or else find "inadvertently misplaced" boxes full of Republican votes if needed (Waukesha County in Wisconsin, e.g.).
Facilitate the ability of corrupt Republican Secretaries of State to falsify close election results and tip them in their favor (Florida in 2000, Ohio in 2004, Georgia gubernatorial in 2018, and MANY more).
Ally with a corrupt Attorney General to enforce "laws" that inhibit voting rights, and to suppress efforts to increase voting.
And, of course, the latest innovation: dismantle the Postal Service in Democratic areas, so that absentee ballots either arrive too late for voters to mail them in, or make sure they arrive too late to be counted.

Since Republicans have no inclination to better serve a majority of the population, let alone improve their message and goals to reflect this, they prefer to cheat using combinations of the above tried and proven methods of cheating.

It is no longer a question of "if," but "to what degree?" I think even Charlie Cook would agree with that. I'd love to ask him, but trying to get a hold of him during an election year is about twice as difficult as catching the Road Runner in a cartoon.

[iluvtennis]

71. The m$m lives a horse race. They'll keep feeding that scenario to

push their ratings.

[steve2470]

87. We cannot be complacent !!!!

If the campaign or supporters/voters become complacent, WE WILL LOSE.