The MAGA crowd is more delusional and agitated than usual this morning

[Dr. Jack]

I sometimes like to check on what the other side is thinking and feeling, so go to the cesspools where they hangout online. That also includes the betting markets, which I can tell everyone right now not to bother checking for actual odds since the predictions are almost never correct.

Anyway, the red hats seem to be in rare form today. We have 538 showing Bidens average national lead over Trump jumping to 9.1 points, nearly tied for his all time high over there, as well as data showing the RNC had low ratings, and reactions to Trump's speech last night ranging from "very boring" to "worst acceptance speech in modern history. But you wouldn't know that from the comments from the Trumpets. They are buying up Trump shares on betting sites (meaning they think he is going to win) with their welfare checks (I assume) at a volume I haven't seen in a long time. They are also predicting Trump will not just win but win in a landslide (a landslide is a double digits popular vote win) because Americans are sick of black people committing crimes and "communism". They are also speculating whether Biden will drop out soon because it's clear that his nomination has been a disaster for the Democrats.

The best way to describe the current mood among Republicans is as a manic, delusional level of energy right now. I don't know if they are lost in their echo chamber or if they are desperately trying to convince themselves and each other that everything is just dandy but I can say the comments are actually so far detached from reality that it is genuinely frightening.

[Thekaspervote]

1. When you listen to and isolate yourself to only delusional garbage..it rubs off

[Laelth]

2. Yep. Manic and delusional. Well said. n/t

-Laelth

[Buckeyeblue]

3. You can bet on the election? I want some of that.

[Dr. Jack]

12. Yup

www.predictit.org is one. Betfair is another.

[aeromanKC]

30. Yep. I actually made some money with Trump Yes thinking his number would jump with RNC

Bought Monday at 43 and sold last night at 47. And Yes, went directly and took a shower!!

And the OP is correct. They are maniacal and delusional. It's lies and projection 24/7.

[Thomas Hurt]

4. they have been state of high anxiety since Harris was announced VP.

[Mike 03]

5. Remember how few Branch Davidians fled the compound, before and even when it

was ablaze?

Steven Hassan's book The Cult of Trump provides some plausible explanations for this phenomenon.

[Dr. Jack]

7. You have me intrigued

Can you elaborate?

[barbtries]

15. this seems appropriate,

I heard it on MSNBC. the difference between a cult and a religion is that in a religion, the leader dies for you, in a cult, you die for the leader.

[Dr. Jack]

20. Ah, makes sense

Could you imagine looking at Donald Trump and thinking "I would die for that man?".

[KS Toronado]

29. No I can't, I'll only put my life on the line for family, friends, neighbors, coworkers, my Doberman

people being bullied, bystanders being shot by an active shooter, and serving my country during
Vietnam, which I did. But NEVER trumpig, just as soon butcher him and feed to the RNC.

[barbtries]

43. nope.

never. what i have thought is something i cannot say out loud, or write down. essentially the opposite.

[panader0]

23. I like that definition.

[Ohioboy]

39. Good definition of a cult

[dem in texas]

24. Don't forget how many drank the koolaid

That is what I think when I hear the righties say how wonderful Trump is.

[Illumination]

40. Right. Because of the attachment & brain washing. They're so entrenched! Maybe they feel

there's nothing without him. Like they would loose their identity & have a huge void in their life...

[MatthewG.]

6. I've noticed this.

I’ve had MAGA people tell me “it’s clear” no one “in the middle” wants Biden and that he can’t win. Several Republicans were shocked when I presented data suggesting senior citizens favor Biden. (I suppose they thought all his voters were youthful radicals.)

Broadly, Democrats worry too much and Republicans gloat too much. I remember Republican after Republican telling me everyone with a job hated Obama and that Romney, who appealed to the middle, was a lock.

[Dr. Jack]

8. Republicans on election day 2012 told me Romeny would win by at least 20 points

Gotta unskew those polls

[barbtries]

14. i had a co-worker

who was genuinely shocked that Obama won. that's when i knew beyond a doubt that fox spreads lies, and that otherwise reasonable people believed those lies.

I mean all the polls had Obama with a 95% chance in that election. it should not have come as a surprise.

[MatthewG.]

32. A highly educated relative told me something similar.

One of my relatives, who is highly educated and intelligent but unfortunately votes Republican purely for tax reasons, told me the same thing in 2012.

A week before the election he basically said “Romney blowout, possibly a double digit popular win. Obama has absolutely zero support from everyone with a job.”

I guess the fact that I had a job didn’t dissuade him. 😂

(When his prediction didn’t pan out, he at least admitted he had been looking at the wrong sources.)

[SpaceNeedle]

53. I won a $1000 bet with a RWer that day

He paid up begrudgingly.

[BComplex]

10. That's what I'm afraid of: all this talk will make them think the election was rigged as trump said

it would be if he lost.

So when he loses (I hope and pray that he does), it's going to give the magats all the reason they need to start the civil war trump and fox propaganda has convinced them they can win, or die trying.

[oasis]

16. I don't expect a major civil war but they'll be lone wolf, Timothy McVeigh

types, doing bigtime mischief throughout our nation.

Best everyone keep their heads on a swivel, on the lookout for anything, anybody smelling like a domestic terrorist.

[Alacritous Crier]

17. Spot on!

Things will get very ugly for a while after Mango Mussolini loses.

[hkp11]

31. maybe groups as well

they don't take loosing their leader too well...

[oasis]

58. It's best to keep our heads on a swivel for a long time. nt

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

60. "...heads on a swivel"?

That sounds like something from a horror film!

[Mr.Bill]

36. The bottom line is 99% of them

are cowards and they are being led by a coward.

[WyattKansas]

46. Well maybe we can finally have a crack down on domestic terrorism from the Republican fanatics...

This country has needed for decades and neutering Republican politicians who utilize them.

[oasis]

57. Yup, Expose them!

[Squidly]

61. it's why I won't be putting up a Biden sign or bumper sticker

too many crazies will be looking for targets. I live on a main road and lots of people drive by on a consistent basis. LOTS of neighbors that are RWNJs. Even the local fire hall was being used as a viewing center for the RNC this week. Best bet is to keep our heads down and on swivels after the election.

[oasis]

63. Smart move. "McGovern for president" was my last bumper sticker.

Got a tricky tack moving violation ticket from a cop in a cruiser two days later. On the freeway

No more stickers since then.

[MatthewG.]

33. Agreed. If Biden wins there will be some very ugly violence.

[Tiger8]

50. I passed on a property yesterday for this reason

Across the street from, the entire house and lawn was like a Shrine to Trumpy. Huge Trump and police signs and flags everyplace...No trespassing, Beware of dogs, etc.

I can just imagine some crazy gun humper inside, listening to Limbaugh, FOX and shaking with anger. A guy like him will go berserk on election night...no matter the outcome.

[Dr. Jack]

21. There is a stark contrast how the two parties are reacting to polls

Biden is up by over 9 points and Democrats are still freaking out that they could lose. Trump is down by over 9 and Republicans are blindly confident that he will win by historic margins.

[MatthewG.]

34. Yes. The norm my whole life is that Republicans gloat and Democrats worry

[Lonestarblue]

48. We should still worry.

Biden is up in the polls, but the polls do not account for Trump’s sabotage of the USPS and its effect on mail ballots, nor do they account for Republican voter suppression and cheating. In states like Georgia where the primary was a mess, who believes that everything will run smoothly in minority precincts? Republicans will use the virus as an excuse to close voting places, forcing people who cannot take a lot of time off to travel some distance and then stand in line for hours, which may mean they do not get to vote. And how many people will show up to vote only to learn that they’ve been kicked off the voter rolls because they didn’t vote in the last election or two?

Two states where Biden is ahead and could win are Georgia and Florida. Think of the governors in those states. Biden will need a much larger advantage just to overcome the dirty tricks they will use. Most Republican governors cannot be trusted to ensure a fair election.

[radius777]

51. Exactly, the national polls mean something, but

the race really will come down to 6 swing states, which Trump/GOP is working overtime to steal.

Biden is up in the polls in those states but by a much closer margin (about 4 points or so) than the national margin.

[Ohiogal]

9. Maybe that Nuremburg rally of his on tee vee last night

got them all whipped up.

[Spazito]

11. They think the more frenetic they are...

the more people will buy their vile shit. They know he's in deep trouble so watch the frantic nature of their thinking increase accordingly.

[barbtries]

13. it's the epic level of propaganda

that is consuming the country and these people. they got the soft version for decades then trump came along and the republicans absconded their positions for greed and power.

it is clearly at the deadly level now. two protesters murdered by a 17-year-old "vigilante" who is hailed as a hero? that is the result of non-stop, increasingly fantastical propaganda being slung and swallowed by millions of people.

yes it is genuinely frightening. the only hope IMO we have is that there are more of us.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

22. K&R. Much truth in a nutshell.

n/t

[Johnny2X2X]

18. They are overcompensating

They know he's behind, the knew he needed a home run last night to get back in the race. His speech was not only not a home run, it was a weak ground out to the pitcher. He did nothing to change the race this week, and Biden's DNC bounce still is being realized.

Not even Rasmussen could cobble together good approval number for him this week, he dropped from 51% to 46% on their joke of a poll.

[demosincebirth]

19. I guess many of then don't know that they are also sucking on

On a socialist teat, too.

[Traildogbob]

25. The finale

As those lying thieves lined up across the stage at the ending, I was thinking of a criminal Line Up at a police Station. But, not sure I have EVER seen a movie, Law and Order episode or any depiction of a police line up with that many, and every fucking one of them are easily pointed out and guilty ass hell. Yes. and even all the little spawn. Those pukes are robbing us to, aiding and abetting. Breeding like cockroaches, and the 5 spawn of Jr where not even there. Spay and neuter to the whole damn KKKlan. They spread faster than covid, just as deadly.

[swimboy]

26. Here's hoping Trump's convention bounce is a

THUD

[bringthePaine]

27. fuck "frightening" - as self-frightening bedwetters, that's what THEY want - deny them!

[nolabear]

28. When you're scared you seek the "safety" of your kind. They're scared.

Their power grab is resulting in a great rising up. They are helping to create what they fear most, a world where they are not in control but have to get along, take the trouble to listen, compromise, give up the idea of supremacy and power. Where, yes, all lives do matter, and some are damned tired of not mattering.

BLM!

[Mr.Bill]

35. My favorite latest tidbit from the RW internet

is the 17 year old murderer with the rifle was acting in self defense because one of the people he killed was armed with a skateboard. So, watch out, kids. Skateboards are deadly weapons now.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

41. They want you to believe that "masks are fear but guns are protection". . . . nt

[NBachers]

64. It was an assault skateboard!

[Oscarthegreat]

37. They are also very dangerous

Some of them are willing to kill as an expression of their hatred and racism, and they do vote, religiously so, while on our side too many are not sure if they'll vote because Biden isn't charismatic enough for them, their favorite candidate isn't the nominee and the nominee doesn't agree with them on everything.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

38. That's weird. It's same delusion they've had for over six months, to a T, incl "Biden will drop out"

The usual reasoning has been that the Democrat(ic) powers that be, grand poobahs, have it planned all along to switch in Hillary Clinton at the last minute. On orders of Soros, of course.

[hot2na]

42. i remember that Dick Morris predicted a Romney landslide

On the eve of the 2012 election despite the evidence that Romney was behind in the polls. In fact Romney lost by nearly an electoral landslide.

[demigoddess]

44. Just wait until they lose the Post Office and their Social Security checks.

All that communism gone will really make them happy, don't you think? Then they will be so happy they voted for drumpf while they go hungry and cold. And their kids won't be able to send them checks in the mail to make up for it.

[TygrBright]

45. As an echo chamber empties out, there's less to absorb the noise so the volume goes up. n/t

[Javaman]

47. Well like many cults, if their asshole leader loses

Maybe they will all drink the kool-aid and we will be rid of the lot of them.

[radius777]

49. Betting markets are dominated by RW white men

and anti-Dem LW white men as well.

That's why the value of prediction markets isn't that great, because they aren't simply betting in a neutral sense to make money, but it's all wrapped up in anti-Dem hatred.

Example: many of them on the PredictIt boards thought Hillary actually could be chosen as VP... she was trading at 5 cents or more at one point. Anyone who understands Dem politics would know she had zero chance (no interest in that role also). But their anti-Hilary/Obama/Dem paranoia comes through in their betting.

[Awsi Dooger]

55. That is a laughably ignorant summary

You are confusing the PredictIt comment section for the betting itself. That is an incomparable blunder. The people wagering the serious shares don't give a damn about the comments. However, there are many right wingers who use the comment section to intentionally spread misinformation to try to influence gullible suckers and newcomers.

Those markets are actually overly tilted to the Democratic side. Year after year. That's why at least 85% of the time I wager on the Republican. That's where the value is. For example, in 2018 the price on GOP maintaining senate control was preposterously low, given the terrain. I was picking off those shares when they were in the high 60s when it should have been considerably above that. There is so much margin for error in a market like that because there is tons of backup, and not reliance on one race alone. Likewise the 2018 Tennessee senate race was 50/50 range for months when it should never have been anywhere near that low, given Tennessee's rise from 34% conservatives in 1996 to 44% in 2018. Cruz was too low on PredictIt. Kemp was too low. And so forth.

Those of us who wager on this stuff seriously always wonder why there is such a determination to push the Democrat into higher than deserved odds in states where the ideology and electoral history do not favor that side. Trump was in the low 60s for a while to win Texas. I've got plenty of that. Again, regardless of which side ends up ahead there is no chance Trump should have been trading at 62-38 in Texas. That is the money line equivalent of a 3 point favorite in an NFL game. Come on, that is preposterous.

In any public market there are always extreme long shot options, like the Hillary example you mentioned. People love to take flyers at high odds. When I worked in Las Vegas sportsbooks we always took more offseason money on the Cubs in the future book than any other team, no matter how terrible they were. Those weren't right wingers. They were people who loved to hold a ticket at 20/1 or 200/1 or whatever.

The public markets aren't perfect but it's like the court system...better than anything else available. Wisdom of the crowd. Compare to sites like this where we had serious threads insisting Biden would receive 60-62% of the vote.

Wagering guys would know what to do with that.

[radius777]

56. Even Nate Silver has stated he questions the predictive value of markets.

The fact that the markets tilt to Dems in the examples you cite could also speak to RW paranoia.

Humans can't separate themselves from their experiences and their political worldviews, and if mainly one type of person is participating in a market it will carry the 'wisdom' (or lack thereof) of those people collectively.

In 2016 the prediction markets were horribly wrong, it had Hillary as high as 86 cents on the day before election day.

In this year's veepstakes, Rice passed Harris and was up to 65 cents (or more) on the day Harris was chosen.

So, the markets have some value but the idea that they predict the future based on some 'perfect wisdom' of markets is not accurate.

[SpaceNeedle]

52. Confirmation bias plus magical thinking

100% of Heavensgate members believed that they would be reaching comet Hale-Bopp (which was supposedly the mothership of their cult) and they took their poison happily.

[Yavin4]

54. Prisoner of the Moment

See it in sports all of the time. A team has a decent showing and everyone crowns them champs without looking at the underlying data.

I don't put much stock in opinions. I put stock in data, and so far, I have not seen a single poll showing Trump with a lead. The best poll by Rassmussen puts Trump within 1% of Biden, and we all know that poll is biased towards Republicans.

If there's movement towards Trump, I have not seen it yet. Not saying that it won't happen, but I'm going to need to see some evidence from multiple sources.

[ecstatic]

59. Can someone reassure me that they're only 40% of the population?

[Awsi Dooger]

62. I saw the Trump landslide claims today

Also insistence that Trump will carry New York. That was courtesy of an upstater mesmerized by lawn signs.

I told him that Trump winning New York is identical caliber of thought as everything from right wingers since birtherism.

I wanted him to agree...and he did