'What am I going to do at 55?': More temporary layoffs could become permanent during COVID recession

[TomCADem]

They may not be filing new unemployment claims, but a lot of people will not be able to return to work as businesses close during the Trump recession.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/08/27/layoffs-2020-more-furloughs-likely-become-permanent-job-cuts/5636736002/

When Stephanie Clark was temporarily laid off from her administrative job for the city of Henderson, Nevada, on March 10, during the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic, she was told she would be called back the next month.

In early April, she was again assured that she would be rehired the following month. But on May 1, with the city’s finances pummeled by the shutdown of neighboring tourist mecca Las Vegas, Clark was permanently let go.

“It was shocking,” says Clark, 55, who worked as a program director for the city’s department of economic development and tourism. “I was blindsided.”

The Trump Administration has depicted the coronavirus recession as a severe but brief shock, noting that the economy and labor market bounced back more robustly than expected from May through July. But there are signs the initial burst of job gains may have played out and as much as half of temporary layoffs and furloughs could become permanent, according to some economists’ estimates.

[ck4829]

1. Why are you complaining? The Dow is at a record high!

[dawg]

2. It's been surprising to me how well the economy has held up so far.

Looking back, it can be explained, mathematically, by the huge stimulus provided by the $1200 checks and the additional $600 per week to unemployment.

Now that the extra unemployment has mostly faded away, we should soon start feeling the pain. I'm surprised we aren't seeing it in the numbers already, but I believe it is inevitable that we will.

I don't see how the economy will be able to remain in recovery without an additional stimulus. I expect worsening numbers by November.

I suppose I could be wrong about that, but I'm not currently able to see a plausible path to continued recovery absent another stimulus. Trump's executive orders are pathetically inadequate.

[SheltieLover]

3. The implosion is beginning

Coca-cola, MGM, several airlines, Lord & Taylor out of business...

Putin happy yet?

[dawg]

4. State and local governments will be forced to do massive layoffs soon, too.

Probably tax hikes as well.

That's what happens when there's no support from the Federal Government.

[SheltieLover]

6. Very true

Never ending financial meltdown, thanks to repukes not approving more stimulus money.

[Demsrule86]

5. The economy is not holding up well...and it is about to worsen...Trump ET AL cooking the

books. My husband as show as being on furlough...but he is not...laid off in April. There are no jobs in Ohio. He is and engineer and usually got a job with a week or two...nothing now. I am laid off as well.

[dawg]

10. I didn't mean to minimize how bad it already is. Millions are still out of work.

But based on my (admittedly simplistic) modeling, it should already be worse. Possibly some of that is from cooking the books. But I suspect it's more from people charging up their credit cards, postponing their rent payments, and othwise delaying the inevitable.

Also, there is a substantial component of the economy (well-off people who can work from home) that hasn't felt any real economic pain yet. But as poorer people are forced to cut back, the loss of business will eventually impact people higher up the chain. We really are all in this together.

[CrispyQ]

13. Too many working class people think the DOW is an accurate indicator of the American economy.

Couple that with lack of understanding how the market is being propped up by the fed & you have a population easy to convince that the economy is doing well, in spite of the fact that every week they get less & less for the same dollar at the grocery store.

Companies that took relief loans can start laying off in October. Look for the GOP to pass some kind of relief package similar to the $1200 checks, right before the election. IMO, we are going to have worse than the Great Depression. Only this time, you won't get a little booklet of ration stamps that allots you a share of fuel or food. Instead, rationing will be done by the dollar. If you have the money to buy the things you need, you'll get them. If you don't, too bad, loser.

We've never been a kind society, but the past few decades we seem to have specifically cultivated mean-spiritedness. Any kind of recovery in today's America will be more difficult because of that.

[Demovictory9]

7. Yet las vegas housing sales are soaring

[Yeehah]

8. Lake Powell and Lake Mead reservoirs are half empty, and scientists predict that they will probably

never fill again. Humans are stupid.

[roamer65]

12. Especially as the Southwest gets much hotter.

In ten years 130 deg F will be common out there.

[Wellstone ruled]

9. Yes they are because of one factor.

The Insurance Checks for all those burned out homes in California are in play.

Plus,the settlements are double or more than what our houses are worth.

[TomCADem]

11. Axios - America's two coronavirus realities

Yes, if you have a lot of financial assets and can afford a house, you are in pretty good shape. Also, some of the home sales are driven by folks seeking to free up assets. I know one person who is pretty well off who put a second home on the market just to free up assets. He is not distressed by any means.

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-recession-stocks-housing-unemployment-1e26bba5-f800-4ff6-a615-7cfeb751ae81.html

The coronavirus-driven recession is creating two parallel economic realities and they are growing further apart by the day.

What's happening: Many people with financial assets and white-collar jobs have actually benefited from the economic downturn, while the rest of the country is doing its best to stay afloat.

* * *
On the other side: The housing market is on fire — U.S. home prices hit a record high last month with both new and existing home sales showing double digit gains while the number of Americans in forbearance programs has fallen for six straight weeks, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported today.

That's largely because the recession is disproportionately hitting those who rent, notes Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.