OMG! Biden is TANKING in the betting markets!

[brooklynite]

It's obvious that MICHAEL BLOOMBERG is going to be our nominee...

If you look at predictions from British gambling site Betfair, the Democratic primary has a new top-tier candidate: Mike Bloomberg. His odds of winning the Democratic nomination shot up suddenly in the middle of this week, and on February 14 he briefly passed Bernie Sanders — who has won the popular vote in the two states that have voted so far and is leading in national polls — as the candidate likeliest to win the nomination and likeliest (behind Trump) to be our next president. At the peak on Valentine’s Day, bettors on Betfair gave Bloomberg a 34.5 percent chance of winning the nomination.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/2/14/21137882/prediction-markets-bloomberg-sanders-president

The things people find to worry about here.....

[cos dem]

1. Just because someone has money, doesn't make them smart.

[Eyeball_Kid]

2. Eh... February 14??? What makes this relevant? n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

8. It's a shot at me. I posted that Biden was tanking in the betting markets...

...and that it was clear the bettors feel the unrest is hurting him. He went from +21 to +8 in a matter of days. It's back to +12 for him but he's lost ground in Wisconsin - tho, still leads.

The point wasn't to freak out but to show an alternate view. It's funny how everyone got excited over the betting markets two months ago when Biden surged ahead of Trump and now dismiss 'em because it's tightening.

But even I said the next round of polls would likely define the markets. If Biden kept a strong lead nationally, the markets would rebound.

[R B Garr]

15. I totally got what you were saying, especially since

it was evident from Trump’s own convention last week being almost exclusively about the protests, which he calls riots because he thinks it benefits him politically.

All the Sunday shows were talking about Trump’s dwelling on the riots because he thinks it helps him politically. Schiff said the same thing. Your correlation matched what has been very evident.

[stopdiggin]

18. rioting (vs protests) does help Trump. Full stop.

And if the Sunday morning talks, and the betting markets are reflecting that -- that's just what they're doing, reflecting.

[JonLP24]

3. PredictIt was fairly accurate for the primaries

Bernie was a heavy favorite when the national polls was in his favor. First they had Sanders winning all 50 states than shortly after Biden was winning the Southeast before South Carolina primary. Around that time and around or after Super Tuesday the national polling flipped to Biden and so did PredictIt. After Michigan Hillary Clinton was a bigger favorite than Bernie Sanders to win the nomination.

Also last I checked PredictIt has Biden winning the Presidential race.

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Now do one on all the threads here insisting Trump was going to resign

Month after month. Year after year.

Then check the odds on that prop at the betting sites, parallel to when each assertion was made here

[Polybius]

9. malaise still believes he's going to resign

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213991492

[still_one]

5. Many moons ago they used to have a person on the financial networks I believe his name was

Crawford, and he predicted stocks and the market using astrology

I wonder how many people followed his advice

[sarcasmo]

6. One gambler can push the numbers with one big bet.

[awesomerwb1]

7. Whatever it is, please stop smoking it.

[agingdem]

12. Yup...

I know this particular election is literally a once in a life time..I know the stakes are high but can we just once go into this with something resembling a "we've got this" attitude instead of OMG some bookie in Britain declares Biden is tanking? ...and OMG Trump beat Biden to Kenosha!..and OMG why the hell isn't Biden in Portland?...we get out the vote and we win...concentrate!!

[BGBD]

10. Betting markets

are terrible. They are not predictive. They are completely reactionary and often was out of proportion to what anything would suggest they should be.

Ignore them.

[Thekaspervote]

11. Ha! Thx for posting. I saw that article. If you look back at the history of betting markets they

closely follow the polls. It takes some time for them to adjust, and this is that adjustment. It took a long time for them to show Biden pulling ahead of Trump long after Biden was having comfortable double digit leads.

Slowly turning an ocean liner!!

[DavidDvorkin]

13. It's starting to move back in the other direction, now

Sometimes, Predictic reacts strongly to some event or poll, but it usually corrects itself after a bit.

[Dan]

14. My bet is that if Trump wins

That within 3 years - it won’t be safe to walk the streets, white or black.

[Sogo]

16. Saying betting markets are an insight into elections

is like saying the stock market is a reflection of the economy.

Markets have their own dynamic unrelated to politics or the economy (although the stock market used to track the economy more closely than it does now).

[Cicada]

17. Betting markets have a track record

Polls can be wrong. So can betting markets. But both have some accuracy, in the past.

538 Model probably has some accuracy. Same with the Economist model.

I would take the average of all of them.

[MFM008]

19. Nothing matters

This election.
Not polls
Not betting.
Nothing.
Just a huge wave of dissatisfied customers
Against Grover and his enablers.