Reasons why Trump's 2016 upset will not be repeated

[Tom Rinaldo]

There are many, including:

Four more years of demographic changes. America has literally become less white since 2016. And, as is naturally the case, more of Trump's older voters have died in the last four years than have Clinton's 2016 voters. Voters who are eligible to participate in their first presidential election in 2020 strongly favor Biden.

Trump is not running against a candidate who the Republican Party has spent 28 years demonizing. Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton, and a relatively ineffective six month campaign to sour Americans on him is trivial compared to what Hillary Clinton had been subjected to for decades.

The Democratic Party is more unified, and has been so for many months, heading into the 2020 election than it was when heading into the 2016 election.

Democrats control the House of Representatives. That means that adverse news about the Trump Administration receives national attention. Recent case in point, public scrutiny of sabotage of the U.S. Post Office.

U.S. media (with the exception of FOX which remains a constant) long ago stopped falling all over themselves to give wall to wall coverage stressing Trump's "unique maverick appeal" to voters, including hundreds of millions of dollars devoted to free, non fact checked coverage of virtually all of his campaign rallies

Trump now has an actual track record in office. He no longer gets to be all things to all people dissatisfied with the status quo in America. People can no longer simply project their hopes for how Trump will perform in office onto him, now America has seen what a Trump presidency actually looks like.

Trump faces organized significant opposition to his run for reelection from many figures who were previously well established in Republican and/or Conservative circles; various Never Trumpers, the Lincoln Project: Republican Voters for Trump, previous members of other Republican Administrations etc. "Establishment" Republicans mostly muted their criticism of Trump once he secured the 2016 nomination. Now a significant number are openly attacking him and promoting Biden to restore sanity to Government. They hold little to no sway over Trump's base, but they can effect the election at the margins, among some Independents, moderate Republicans etc.

Third Party candidates are in eclipse. We acknowledge to role the Green Party played in Trump's narrow victory in 2016. The Green Party has a significantly reduced profile heading into November. But it is the loss in stature of the Libertarian Party that is more note worthy. Libertarians far out polled the Greens in 2016. Libertarians appealed to significant numbers of younger voters in 2016 with their "pro-pot" position and anti-establishment branding etc.

There is an African American candidate on the Democratic ticket this year. There wasn't in 2016 when we lost, there was in 2008 and 2012 when we won. African American voter turn out dropped in 2016 from the prior two elections. That hurt Democrats.

The pandemic will have killed a quarter of a million Americans by the time election day arrives. This is on Trump's watch, and all of his pronouncements about how perfectly his administration has handled this catastrophe are only playing to his hard core base, his approval ratings on this front are damning.

The public is unhappy to a record degree over the course our nation is on. That is almost universally a referendum on the incumbent Administration. Trump can spin all he wants but everyone knows that the economy remains in terrible shape, largely due to how poorly the pandemic has been handled.

How horrific a human being Donald Trump is has been well litigated and firmly established a thousand times over with floods of new information now available about how utterly loathsome a human being he actually is. No, this does not negatively impact on his floor of support. What it does is lower the ceiling of support beyond his base that Trump can still aspire to, and his base alone doesn't cut it.

Of course there are things that Trump can and will play up to make sure that voters who are naturally inclined to support someone with his professed world view show up at the polls for him. Even Barry Goldwater got almost 39% of the vote in 1964. Any major party candidate in America starts out with over a third of the vote locked in solidly. And those voters tend to be fervent and vocal. I had a friend (of above average intellect, honest) who was convinced George McGovern was going to win in 1972 because where he lived in Oregon at the time McGovern was wildly popular.

Trump can and will rally his base. He will win back almost all of those who might have started wavering in their support of him. But his base is not enough. Trump has racism and the specter of "Anarchists" rioting in our cities going for him in 2020. He had racism and the specter of the M13 gang infiltrating suburbia in 2016. And Mexico DID NOT "pay for the wall". Trump has Russia "meddling in our elections" this year and that was true in 2016 also. But now it is out in the open, and some social media platforms have actually become at least somewhat more active in combating Russian efforts.

Election fundamentals have shifted AWAY from Trump since 2016. Grassroots Democrats are far more organized now than we had been prior to the 2016 election. His election was an eye opener and the immediate response to that came the day after his election with a nation wide (and beyond) mobilization of women against him. Republicans have lost ground nationally in every election year since 2016, and Democrats historically turn out the most in presidential election years.

In my opinion constantly repeating the refrain that this will be a very close election only helps give Trump the cover he needs to more blatantly attempt to steal it. If conventional wisdom hardens on a prediction that this can go either way, then it becomes easier for Trump to after the fact claim that he was the legitimate winner, but for rigging, once he is defeated.

[tinrobot]

1. This is a great list. It gives me hope.

I also don't think it will be close.

But we need to make it a complete blowout. It's the only way the message gets sent.

[c-rational]

4. +1 - Agreed, it also gives me hope.

[uponit7771]

2. K&R, meaning only way for Trump to win is for him to cheat

[Laelth]

3. I agree.

In any fair election this year, Biden will “beat Trump like a drum,” just as he promised us he would. It shouldn’t be close.

-Laelth

[abqtommy]

5. Thanks for this informative op!

[lastlib]

6. And the one reason it COULD be repeated:

He CHEATS.

he STEALS, he LIES. He BULLIES.

If we don't vote MASSIVELY, he will fight, tooth and claw and horns and cloven hooves, to hold on to power. And if we don't beat him into humiliated pulp on Election Day, prosecute him, and hang his carcass from a lamp-post, with a wooden stake through his miniscule heart, he or his Satanic spawn could come back in years to come.

[Tom Rinaldo]

10. I don't disgree about what his best shot at remaining in office is

Even so I think it is a long shot, but still it must be resisted. A big part of that resistance however is refusing to take part in any horse race arguments that provide a rational for claiming that a fair election "could go either way". It can't, not even in the electoral college. Trump is losing support among older voters due to how he has handled the pandemic and essentially written their health off. His support among military voters is starting to soften also. The fact that he can make his core base glow an ever brighter red hot does not compensate for that.

Agree that we have to crush Trumpism in November. That is all the incentive we need to give this election all that we have. We don't need to scare ourselves into thinking it is legitimately close, that just gives comfort to our enemies.

[MFGsunny]

74. This! n/t

[Sherman A1]

60. +1

I am hopeful for November, but my optimism is very tempered.

[gristy]

7. Very good OP here.

You've made so many good points, and your last one is great.

In my opinion constantly repeating the refrain that this will be a very close election only helps give Trump the cover he needs to more blatantly attempt to steal it. If conventional wisdom hardens on a prediction that this can go either way, then it becomes easier for Trump to after the fact claim that he was the legitimate winner, but for rigging, once he is defeated.

[onetexan]

58. +1 K&R

[BlueSky3]

79. On the other hand...

If people anticipate a close election, it may motivate more Democrats to get out and vote. People who otherwise might think their vote doesn't matter may make the effort to get out there and do their part.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Thank you

[Johnny2X2X]

9. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein

So Johnson had a big effect on polling, at this time in 2016 he was polling at 8%, this had the effect of muting Trump's support, the Hillary lead was not all real in 2016. Hillary was up 5.5 points at this point in 2016, but Gary Johnson's polling support would go to 4% on election day, that 4% went to Trump. Furthermore, on election day, Johnson got 3% of the vote, so there's another point to Trump. Gary Johnson explains why Hillary's lead was not real.

Jill Stein, she got 1% of the vote overall, but got 2-3% in some of the swing states, this was greater than the margin Hillary lost in states like MI and WI.

The Libertarian and Green candidates are totally marginalized this time around, they aren't skewing polls, and they won't decide some states like last time unless it's the Libertarian stealing some unexpected votes from Trump.

Undecideds is also a factor, there were about 10% of the voters undecided at this point in 2016, this time around it's more like 7-8%. So Hillary never polled over 46%, She had to get a lot of the undecideds to have a big victory. Biden is already at over 50%, he doesn't need any extra votes between now and then to win decisively.

It's a totally different animal. Trump knows it too though, that's why he's going to try to steal it outright.

[LiberalFighter]

38. National polls in my opinion need to be avoided.

It is more important to get the polls state by state. That would show where the danger lies with candidates like Johnson or Stein. And what the outcome would be for the main candidates. If this were an election decided by the popular vote a national poll would be appropriate.

[Johnny2X2X]

41. State polls have changed

So the national polls were pretty accurate last time, Hillary wont by 2 when the polls had her winning by 3-5. But some state polls were way off. And every major pollster took notice and adjusted their methods this time around.

State polls should be more accurate this time around. Biden is doing better in the states than Hillary was doing around this time. Florida is the best news for Biden.

[JudyM]

48. The Greens need to join us this time, endorse Biden.

[LymphocyteLover]

66. Is Biden over 50%? What poll?

They were saying on Chris Hayes' show tonight that Biden wasn't quite there yet

[Johnny2X2X]

76. He's over 50 in almost all of the polls

He’s over 50 on the poll average even.

[LymphocyteLover]

81. great-- I hope

Cornell Belcher, Obama's pollster was saying Biden isn't quite there last night on MSNBC.

Though this average tracking poll does show him over 50%, so you are right

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

[LaMouffette]

11. Thank you!

Been feeling a bit terrified as more TRUMP 2020 signs have been popping up in our area. This is to be expected in the red area in which we live, but lately these signs fill me with an enormous sense of dread that Trump will manage to steal this election, too.

I've been seeing more pickup trucks driving around with the American flag flying from them. And I am thinking that this must be some kind of covert Trump supporter thing, which pisses me off. That's my flag, too! How dare they try to claim it as another one of their dog whistles!

But anyway, your post gives me hope!

[llmart]

47. I hate that the redneck guys in pickup trucks think the flag is only theirs.

I will NOT let them co-opt our flag! I intend to fly my flag for the first time in four years on the day Biden wins! We need to take that symbol back from the trump humpers.

[onetexan]

59. Ya know, the hubby & i are visiting my inlaws in AR, a deep red 45-supporting territory an hour

north of Little Rock, a heavily Catholic & rural/farming area. In 2016 this time of year there were trump signs in many yards. Yesterday as we can in i've yet to see a trump 2020 sign. I feel he's screwed farmers one too many times and they've finally learned their lesson. Hope that is the case anyway but the lack of signs also gives me optimism.

[Calista241]

12. I'm not really sure. I know 'we' really hate Trump.

But what does rando not ultra political but regular presidential election voter in Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin feel like? My impression is that many on the right are every bit as highly motivated to vote as we are.

I live in the suburbs of Atlanta, and there is Trump support everywhere. A month ago, i was enthusiastic, as there were even little Black Lives Matter protests in my city (which has never, ever happened). But I know one of the people at those protests, and they have a Trump / Pence sign in their yard.

I've mentioned this here before, but my fiance's Mom is a die hard Trumper, and I know for a fact that she wouldn't tell a soul outside her family and circle of friends that she's going to vote for Trump. I even heard her say to people that she voted for Clinton, when I know who she really voted for. How many people like that are out there? I think it's a lot more than we suspect.

[Tom Rinaldo]

14. Trump had hard core support in 2016 and he has it in 2020 also

Now is the time of an election cycle when the most fervent of a candidate's supporters become most active. Now is the time when a campaign releases all of their targeted arguments to shore up support from any of their voters who may have developed some doubts. Trump will always have true believers and those per-inclined to get pulled into his orbit when the heat is turned up.

Don't underestimate the significance of Trump's team having to pour resources into states like Iowa and Ohio and Arizona and even Texas now. They are essentially on the defensive no matter how many attacks on Democrats they may launch. They are fighting a rear guard action to hold onto and pump up their base. They only won in 2016 by expanding on the base that naturally gravitates toward someone like Donald Trump. The fact that they are still preaching to the choir is telling.

[Thekaspervote]

18. Exactly...he won't win because he hasn't expanded his now shrinking base

[LiberalFighter]

40. An incumbent shouldn't be on the defense. That is a major weakness of their campaign.

Trump has too many negatives going against him. I would say more than Jimmy Carter did in his re-election attempt.

[LakeArenal]

82. On national or state wide elections WI trends blue.

[NNadir]

13. Uplifting, that said...

...let's assume the worst.

It ain't over until the fat orange racist is in prison.

[Pacifist Patriot]

15. Excellent. I have but one quibble.

"Trump can and will rally his base. He will win back almost all of those who might have started wavering in their support of him."

I am not convinced he has the ability to win back support once it is lost. His strong base will stay his strong base. But once someone held in thrall to a malignant narcissist has their eyes opened, there is no going back. When Trump loses a supporter, it is not quite the same thing as a typical politician souring a voter who might be able to mollify that voter by Election Day.

His cult of personality may solidify a base that you quite rightly point out is not enough to win an election. But it is also that personality that makes it virtually impossible to support him again once the voter has experienced That One Thing.

The maddening part for the rest of us is that there is no way of knowing what That One Thing will be for any particular person. We're gobsmacked people didn't see it when he demonstrated who he was many times over in his first campaign for president. A racist, misogynist, grifter who makes fun of the disabled, spars with Gold Star families, etc. We thought, Damn! If kids in cages doesn't do it, what the hell will?

Unpredictable and nonsensical, but when anyone has That One Thing moment, there is no going back. The scales have fallen from their eyes and they won't follow him ever again.

That's excellent news for us because he's going to keep delivering That One Thing every damn day until November.

Great post, thanks!

[steve2470]

16. You make great points, which cheers me up

In the last 4 years, I have become much more cynical and negative about the electorate (not our side of it). Low-information voters is a very real thing, and they only pay attention to who screams the loudest in the media and who the media pays attention to. Right now, our Dictator-wannabe and his thugs are screaming about "law and order". We Democrats and other informed voters know this is all BS and we know the context (very small minority in otherwise peaceful protests). Do the low-information voters know this ? I really wonder, and this troubles me.

On a Republican Voters Against Trump podcast that I listened to, former RNC chief Michael Steele warned that Trump is trying to get 2016 white non-voters to come out for him. Will it work ? I don't know. I think this is the one:

I know both Vice-President Biden and Senator Harris are speaking out strongly against any violence in the protests. They need to keep doing this, probably every day, to every media outlet that will listen. The point needs to keep being made that this is TRUMP's America and not "Biden's America" (not yet). The context and facts need to be stressed repeatedly.

If Trump wins again (god forbid), it will be because of voter suppression, Russian help, and moronic low-information white voters who do not bother to inform themselves about this "law and order" propaganda. As you said, we have all those positive factors on our side.

Thanks for an uplifting and informative post !

[Tom Rinaldo]

17. Sure. He will get some 2016 non voters to vote for him this time.

By doubling down repeatedly on the things that make his core base loyal to him Trump keeps making it harder for those who aren't true believers to back him now. So yes, he will inflame his "natural" base enough to get some who didn't bother voting in 2016 to vote for him now because that is virtually the only potential source of new votes he has left to him.

But Democrats have a pool of people inclined to vote Democratic who didn't make it to the polls in 2016 also, and it is a larger pool than what Trump is counting on for his efforts. This year there will be record turnout on both sides. A lot of Democratic leaners who didn't think that Hillary needed their votes to win last time know better now. And people without strong ideological convictions who previously thought that our nation is essentially on auto pilot no matter which party wins now no better also. If nothing else Covid-19 showed them that. Democrats will win new votes from that bucket also.

Thank you for your kind comment

[BlueWavePsych]

19. Excellent thesis!

[DownriverDem]

20. Get ready for

the swift boater guy to help trump. I just read it.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/08/smear-merchant-who-swiftboated-john-kerry-comes-to-trumps-rescue-as-campaign-flounders-report/#.X00T75xRZOU.linkhttps://www.rawstory.com/2020/08/smear-merchant-who-swiftboated-john-kerry-comes-to-trumps-rescue-as-campaign-flounders-report/#.X00T75xRZOU.link

[GoneOffShore]

29. It's not going to be enough. I'm betting that The Lincoln Project and others will expose this guy

And counter any ads he comes up with.

[PatrickforO]

21. Let's hope so. Funny how we assume that if the message is a big lead,

we assume people will be too lazy to vote. That's the James Carville wisdom - run like you are five points behind.

But I'm going to vote no matter what. Even if we are 20 or 30 points ahead. Because if I don't vote then that 'lead' means nothing.

In fact my whole family is utterly disgusted and will vote straight blue. We also research ballot initiatives, debate and figure out what a good vote on those is, and each chooses their way.

But we all vote blue, and we will vote in this election (and all subsequent ones) no matter what.

[Demsrule86]

22. Absolutely true...and I have put the doom and gloomers mostly on ignore...they hurt our effort and I

question the motives of some.

[IronLionZion]

23. I'm hoping turnout is high enough to completely thrash their voter suppression tactics

It's time for a big blue wave to wash off the stench of the GOP

[mountain grammy]

24. There you go again

Giving me hope! Yes, everything you say is true plus the fact that he really didn’t win in 2016.

[gopiscrap]

25. I have been saying pretty much the same thing

[cstanleytech]

26. Just pointing out that a lot of Republicans opposing Trump now are

probably only doing it because they

A. Got what they wanted with Moscow Mitch and the rest ramming through a massive number of extremist conservative judges that will taint our justice system for decades.

B. They are also pretending to be anti Trump to cushion the blowback for their actions at the polls.

[linda52]

27. +100000

Can't wait to vote!

[Sophiedillo]

28. He won last time by way of the electoral college.

This could indeed happen again.

[cheezmaka]

70. Yes he did...

That's why we should all vote and encourage others to do so like Biden's 10 points behind. Statistically, Trump has less paths to 270 than Biden. The swing states that will decide the election will most likely be WI, PA, and MI. If Biden wins FL then it's over for Trump. More voters will turn out because they didn't like Clinton in 2016. Others are predicting a landslide for Biden. Regardless of how good things look for Biden now we should be more "motivated than ever" on getting out the vote.

&list=PL6XOCAbiEX2jnarKGT4mEpgpwFHEAqmzm&index=28&t=0s

By the way, Welcome to DU!!!

[liberalla]

30. Bookmark

[wishstar]

31. He also broke promises appealing to moderates on DACA, improving health care, taxing wealthiest

and a host of other centrist policies that he didn't enact and even carried out the opposite of his benign promises.

He got votes by trying to appeal to swing voters and moderates in 2016 who were quickly disillusioned, even some LGBT voters who now feel betrayed. He is now making a lame attempt to win more AA male voters this time around, but that's a doubtful proposition.

[Larissa]

32. Some things cannot be glazed over or lied about

Per the BBC, the United States' six million cases of coronavirus represents nearly a quarter of the world's total. What I find extremely horrifying is the untold numbers of those not officially included in the six million, who are likely infecting others -- and so on and so forth. I have wondered what the saturation point is when things, like contact tracing, become useless. We've got no brakes on this car and a loon behind the wheel. Every day we're braced for impact.


NYT: The True Coronavirus (Death) Toll in the U.S. has Already Surpassed 200,000
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deaths-us.html

Confirmed virus cases in the U.S. surpass 6 million.

Twenty-two days.

It took more than three months for the United States to reach one million coronavirus cases after reporting its first confirmed infection, but less than a third of that time to notch the latest million-case leap.

On Sunday, the United States hit yet another milestone, with six million reported cases.

[RhodeIslandOne]

33. Only the cheating is what I worry about

This race will not be close if all the votes are counted fair and square. Whether by mail or in person, Biden should win both the PV and EC in a landslide. He will win states like Ohio and Arizona that would be pipe dreams only recently.

But now Donald Trump has shown he will do literally anything to save himself. He knows if he loses, he will certainly be going to jail. Why wouldn't he cheat? There's nothing left for him to pillage or desecrate as far as government goes.

[BigmanPigman]

54. Bingo!

[FakeNoose]

34. Well done, Tom Rinaldo

... and thank you for giving us hope in these dark times!

In my opinion constantly repeating the refrain that this will be a very close election only helps give Trump the cover he needs to more blatantly attempt to steal it. If conventional wisdom hardens on a prediction that this can go either way, then it becomes easier for Trump to after the fact claim that he was the legitimate winner, but for rigging, once he is defeated.

Yes! We have to stop playing Chump's game and start playing our own.
We've got this, let's not hand it back to him!

[Mr. Ected]

35. Though I share your passion I don't share your optimism

There is nothing that that man and his so-called party won't do to maintain their grip on power. Nothing. Zip. The inconceivable is on the table. No amount of imagination could forecast in advance what perils await us in November. Would he gin up a war in the days prior to the election? Of course. Would he authorize the "taking out" of key Democrats? Of course. Would he allow Russia to attack us in ways that we have never seen before? Of course.

This won't prevent me from voting and encouraging every other human being within my purview to do the same. But I think the damage has been done, the framework has been put into place, and they've had 4 years to covertly plan and organize. They've probably cooked up a doozy, knowing that a loss in this election probably means prison time for many of them.

I pray I'm dead wrong.

[tavernier]

75. They don't live in a vacuum.

If they have a doozy that they’ve cooked up over four years, there are former republicans and watchdog organizations that know about it. Pretty sure there will be few surprises as most of their dirty tricks (post office, etc.) have been revealed.

But having said that, I’m nervous also of too much optimism because Murdoch is still selling magic beans by the pound, and so many of our citizens have never even been exposed to the truth.

[ooky]

36. There are a lot of Trump supporters on slow bleed right now.

If I was a Trump supporter waiting in a food bank line or sweating being evicted right now, I don't think that would enhance my enthusiasm about voting for him, or voting at all. His "law and order" shit isn't going to appeal to people in that situation either. They need money, and he isn't helping them get any. So if anything, I expect his base to keep shrinking.

[LiberalFighter]

37. I've been saying the part of more of Trump's voters have died then Clintons for several months.

About 8 million will have died from the 2016 election until November 2020. Those 65 and older tend to be more conservative and likely to vote Republican. That group would consist of about 60%.

The margins are also critical with those that don't vote by party. This year there are what would normally be hard Republicans that can't hold their nose with the stench coming from Trump.

[apnu]

39. The Green and Libertarian thoughts are interesting.

It is noticeable they are so quiet this election cycle. Almost as if they exist solely to be some kind of spoiler in non-incumbent election cycles. That certainly was true of the Greens in 2016. Jill Stein was there only to siphon off some votes for Hillary. The Russians knew it, and they tried to exploit that with some success.

[apnu]

42. This election is going to be about "owning the libs"

Trump's base acknowledges that America is a shit-hole. Naturally they ignore their own contributions to that, but they at least acknowledge it. Their motivation isn't that Trump is bad has his job, or that he hasn't provided one iota of what he promised. They don't care about that any more than Trump cares about them. The Trumpers just want to see Liberals "owned" and so long as they thing Trump is doing that, he will have their enthusiastic support.

Trump has the same floor that W had at his lowest moments after Hurricane Katrina, that is something like 30% of the electorate stuck with him no matter what.

The question will be, will that 30% with a few other weirdos, be enough to get Trump to 270 Electoral Votes?

Trump lost 2016 by almost 3 million votes in the popular tally. Add on the fact that 40% of the electorate stayed home in 2016, its easy to see that most of America doesn't want Trump.

He is not popular, he has never been popular, the approval ratings are always bunk, doesn't matter who the POTUS is. But even by that metric he's unpopular.

None of that matters, the only thing that does is the 270 EVs. Can Trump string some path to 270, no matter how narrow? Maybe.

We need to watch all the states that were narrow victories for Trump in 2016 (WI, MI, OH, PA, FL), but also see if there are any upsets coming our way, for example TX appears to be in play. Things like that could be indicators of how Trump is doing in conservative America and show how narrow of a path to 270 he has.

Because if Texas is close, what does that say of MI, WI, PA, and FL? Trump won all 4 by less than 2% of the popular vote in those states. Clinton won MN and NH by less than 2% of the popular vote.

It seems to me that the road to 270 goes through the Rust Belt and FL?

So it all comes down to how much of a motivator "owning the Libs" is for those states.

I think this is why Biden is going after working class voters and surrounding himself with moderate Democrats and Republicans, from a tactical perspective.

Joe is pretty moderate himself, in so far as Democrats go, so I don't expect him to be full throat-ed progressive now or any time in the future. But the tactics of appealing to disaffected moderates is a sound one, given the last election cycle.

[Locrian]

80. good point

>>So it all comes down to how much of a motivator "owning the Libs" is for those states.

That's what I'm seeing. Less love of trump (yes, still there) and more blatant that they HATE us.
Misery loves company. They don't have anything and they don't want anyone ELSE to either - especially *those* kinds of people. Seems that point is trumps recent message: "they (dems) will take away xyz from you".

The other point is cheating. I don't think we've seen the extent that that will play. There has been precious little done to prevent it.

[Act_of_Reparation]

43. Try not to get hit in the face when Donnie throws in the sponge.

[mahina]

44. I hope you submit this as a letter to the editor far and wise.

It’s excellent. Thank you.

[Awsi Dooger]

45. Single most important variable is independents who shifted away from Trump in early 2017

And have never returned. That category dictated the 2018 midterm. That category decides this election because massive numbers are involved, and it is preference, not turnout.

Preference is exponentially more significant than turnout because it is shuffling numbers from one side to the other. Three independents per 100 who voted Trump in 2016 and now have moved to Biden in 2020 cannot be made up anywhere else.

We are not going to swamp Donald Trump based on turnout. Both sides feel the urgency and will show up. The GOP was surprised by Trump's pull among lower educated previous non-voters, so they have made a huge push to find more in that category. No doubt it will be successful. The greatest challenge pollsters face in this cycle is weighing the electorate by education. Nearly 50% of respondents lie in that category. It was the problem with polling in the midwestern states in 2016. The major polls underestimated the number of high school and lower who would be in the electorate. I believe it will happen again, to lesser extent.

Trump also can make up ground with partisans. I am not a believer in the crossover anecdotes. That is over hyped every cycle. Bottom line Trump only received 81% of conservatives in 2016. That number figures to go up, not down. He won Wisconsin 2016 largely because Republicans and conservatives were more loyal to him there than in other swing states, or the nation itself.

The only other major category Trump figures to improve from 2016 is with Hispanics. Hispanics are more loyal to presidential incumbents than any issue evaluation would suggest. There is no need trying to figure it out, or deny it. It was glaring as soon as I began studying political math decades ago.

The first point from the OP is excellent, and one I have emphasized for years. Silent Generation shoved Trump over the top in 2016. He has lost his winning margin due to death rate among that group, which was always the most right leaning generation. By my calculations, Silent Generation mortality from 2016 to 2020 alone is worth 1.5% net toward Biden in Florida and Arizona, and roughly 1% net in other swing states.

[bucolic_frolic]

46. We were paralyzed in 2016 by ignorance and message

We were gaslit. We didn't understand why the polls always stalled. Only those of us aware of Trump's Russia obsession had any idea of what was going down. Why wasn't "Russia, if you're listening ...." a ten alarm fire for our intel community? If any other President in the last 100 years had gone there, he would not have been elected.

The Biden campaign is ready for battle. As inspiring a candidate as HRC was, her message was muzzled by the media. They didn't follow her policy outlines, they reported her father had manufactured curtains.

Biden understands this race deeply. He is operating in Trump's head. We have the American people engaged this time, in fact outraged. Anger drives watershed, change elections. Trump's reservoir is emptying out as the weeks roll by.

[JudyM]

49. K&R, agree.

[Alpeduez21]

50. Asshole pieces of shit

Jill Stein “protest” voters won’t be able to fuck shit up

[MarianJack]

51. In 1972 I was a 17 year old volunteer for McGovern in 3 states.

I met him twice.

He may have been popular in Oregon, but unfortunately he didn't carry it.

Trickie Dickie carried all but DC & Massachusetts.

Too bad.

RESIST

[Taraman]

56. I saw McGovern speak in 1969 for the first time

A real patriot and a fine man.

I remember how the media and the popular media (like Johnny Carson) ridiculed him every chance they got.

[MarianJack]

57. I was always honored that he remembered me the second time that I met him.

The first time was right before the PA primary.

The second time was the day before the NY primary.

RESIST

[NurseJackie]

52. Thank you.

[AlexSFCA]

53. there is no doubt dems will have more votes

even in swing states. But it is naive to think that this is all that’s needed. What will matter even more is who (and how) will count the votes.

[jimlup]

55. We hope so ... however

my concern is that something more nefarious than we've noted in this analysis is afoot.

A Russian bear with very sophisticated disruption capabilities and I'm not just talking social media...

[Aepps22]

61. Excellent List

The most important thing is that we are hip to the scam and we're calling things out early.

[warmfeet]

62. All good reasons,

but we must not neglect the cheating.

The votes must count - all of them.

[mtnsnake]

63. Great list, well thought out, but your second paragraph alone would be enough

where you said, "Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton."

Hillary, as wonderfully competent as she was to be president, was just about the only person who Trump could beat for the reason you mentioned. Trump knows that the only way he could win in 2020 would be if Hillary ran against him again. Biden is our candidate this time, and there is no way that he will lose to Trump. Biden will be President.

[LymphocyteLover]

64. All great points --- the main thing is we don't let up

this election SHOULD be a blow out and it still could be

[LymphocyteLover]

65. Eric Boehlert has repeatedly said the media just wants to pretend it is close because

they make a lot of money from election coverage...

[colsohlibgal]

67. We Must Vote And....

Be ever vigilant and fight hard to limit their cheating. We need lots of Democratic Poll workers and we need to crush this attempt to thwart our democracy.

If we indeed win all three branches we need to work toward jettisoning the Electoral College. We were founded on the principle of one person one vote and that isn’t it.

Then we need to sic the FCC on Fox News and OAN in particular. OAN of course makes Fox News look moderate.

[treestar]

68. counting on old people dying never seems to work

sufficient from the next generation get more conservative

Though in this case, COVID19 is killing older people. But not so many as to affect the outcome, and a lot could have been in blue states.

The main thing is the 4 years of actual Trump vs. the idea of him before he got into the office. That should sway any non-cultists who voted for him last time, thinking he would shake things up.

Also the sexism may have had an effect. Biden is male.

[NoRoadUntravelled]

69. Thanks for this excellent OP.

It gives me hope.

[Awsi Dooger]

71. The reason it might be repeated is Russia

Today I read the David Shimer book. Not sure that was a great choice. That is one scary book. Far more ominous than I expected, especially the section regarding Russia having the capability to change voter registration figures and possibly even vote tallies in 2016, but Putin backed off fearing retaliation and harsh penalties if Clinton won anyway. Obama warned Putin to stay away. The numbing aspect is that now Trump/Barr undoubtedly are encouraging and welcoming everything along those lines. Trump fears mail balloting because those votes leave a paper trail, unlike the votes Putin might be able to manipulate.

Gad. I'm not sure I'll sleep well tonight. I was never a believer in the GOP vote switching theories here regarding 2004, and in fact used to post in Election Reform while watching terrific contributors like Febble and OnTheOtherHand absolutely dominate the cynical types in that forum.

However, now we've reached new terrain and it would be stupid to downplay or dismiss. Ken Blackwell did not scare me. A long time KGB officer does.

[Joinfortmill]

72. Excellent analysis.

[herding cats]

73. I hope you're correct, but I'm not convinced you are.

First off, you're missing the demographic points on age. It's literally specific to states. Swing states we need to win haven't "died" at a ratio to change anything. Also, a lot of Latino voters aren't the leftist people assume they are. They're conservative and, yes, are Trump supporters. They're many generation Americans and as prone to the rhetoric as anyone else. Too many Democrats assume a Latino vote is a Democratic vote, they're not a monolithic voting bloc.

I agree about media coverage, to a point. "If it bleeds it leads" so, wait and see is my gut reaction.

You don't understand even on a rudimentary basis the people who support Trump. They actually feel sorry for him, "he's doing the best he can to save the country," they say. I hear them, and it's truly mind boggling how they think. Yet, this is what they're feeling. And, they vote based on their feelings. They'll support him simply because they believe we are truly evil. Not we have differing policy ideas, or approaches to governing, but we're truly evil in their eyes. These people reside in swing states e.g. Wisconsin in viable levels.

Look at where the public is unhappy. Specifically, not nationally. That's a trap we often fall into, assuming national polls somehow reflect swing states. They never do. Presidential elections are won by the swing states exclusively. Fact is, not everyone in swing states believe, think or feel like we do. Far from it, actually. This isn't a national race, nor district race, it's a statewide race in a handful of truly messed up states.

We're good right now, but this isn't in the bag. Not even close to that yet.

I'm sorry, I'm not feeling good yet at all about this cycle. I'm sure I won't until the ballots are counted and the results are all in. We have way too much at stake here to fall prey to feel good narratives this cycle. This is from what many would have called the most consummate optimist out there previously. I'm not convinced this is in the bag. Not even close yet. There is still so much work to be done before we can hang up our hats and relax.

ETA:In my opinion, pretending this election isn't so close in the pivotal swing states (which it clearly is) only helps to depress much needed voter turnout at this point. We all need to be voting like our Democracy depends on it, because it does.

[Tom Rinaldo]

77. Actually I have a better understanding of Trump voters than many

I'm obviously not one of them so of course I can't walk that final mile in their shoes (ugh), but they are much present in my world. Trump will win tens of millions of votes no matter what we or Biden does. The only question is can he repeat an electoral college victory. I listed factors that work against his ability to repeat him pulling of an inside strait again. It will not require very much of a shift against Trump this time in order to seal his defeat.

I understand your point about campaigning as if we are several points behind rather than far ahead, and of course every day is one snap shot in time regardless of who is winning, although voter attitudes tend to settle more with each passing day. Were it not for Trump's strategy of claiming it is impossible for him to lose this election unless it is rigged against him, I might ordinarily agree more with your view. We need to firmly establish the narrative that Trump has lost his hold on the nation at large, that his campaign is floundering, that his frantic attempts to hold onto his base are causing him to alienate voters elsewhere on the political spectrum, and that his core base is not sufficient to secure his reelection.

I will give you one tangible example of how this matters. It is well known that McConnell and other Republican strategists arrived at a prognosis earlier this summer to cut loose from Trump to save the Senate if Trump isn't able to right his sinking ship by Labor Day. If the perception remains that Trump has dug himself a hole that he can not pull himself out of, money being raised for his reelection will be diverted to congressional races instead, more Republican candidates will distance themselves from Trump, making it even more likely that Trump will lose in November.

Right now we are just exiting a unique time in the political calendar, an entire week where national media attention was predominantly focused on covering Trump's "Republican Convention" media circus. It gave Trump a breather when headlines did not focus almost exclusively on his scandals and failures, with the ongoing pandemic at the top of that list. That respite is now over for the Republicans and it will not be repeated. The fact that it only just ended somewhat distorts our perception of how the race is going.

In my view the threat to our nation from all that Trump represents will not be dispelled simply by removing Trump from office. Trumpism needs to be smashed, and Republicans up and down the ballot all across the nation must be defeated to drive a wooden stake through its heart. That should be motivation enough for us to keep the pedal to the metal each and every moment until election day. There can be no coasting, no letting up. Joe Biden needs a large a mandate as we can possibly muster in order to address the problems Trump created. When indications point toward Republicans falling short, that should not, and need not, lead us to lower our guard. Rather it is a signal for us to charge forward and seize as much political territory as is possible while the wind is at our backs.

[AllyCat]

78. I hope this is true. I am not as optimistic

I will still do whatever I can to help make Biden our next POTUS and end this horrible reign of terror and Putin.

I actually don't believe the election will be close. Biden will win by a landslide. What worries me is our white supremacist electoral college.