Even odds?

[brooklynite]

Princeton Election Consortium

Betting markets used to favor Biden over Trump. But in the days after the Democratic and Republican conventions, the markets now report 50-50 odds, a toss-up. Is that a realistic assessment?

Based on polling metrics, the data so far don’t support this shift at all. It seems that bettors are factoring in “pre-poll” possibilities such as difficulties in voter access in a way that helps Trump; or “post-poll” disruption such as post-election unrest arising from a slow count, eventually leading to an Electoral College outcome that doesn’t match true state-by-state voter intent. We must do everything we can to guard against these threats to democracy.

But today, let me put that aside. Ignoring the factors above, what would it take for conditions to suggest a true even-odds Presidential election, assuming the election is held without major incident? Based on polls only, here are some thresholds to watch for:

Biden Meta-Margin at 0.0%
Biden ahead in national popular vote by less than 2.5%
Democrats lead generic Congressional ballot by less than 3%
Trump job approval rises to 45%

[Hoyt]

1. It's going to be an anxious few months. I think we will prevail, but . . . . . n/t

[Wounded Bear]

2. I don't do betting odds. Too easy to skew...

10,000 people could lay $5 bets and the odds drift one way, then one guy comes in and lays $1 million bet and the odds jump back the other way.

[unblock]

3. Take their predictive value with a grain of salt

Yes, they can be manipulated.

Biden is clearly the favorite at the moment.

I don't bet on those markers either, but the appropriate response is to buy Biden at 50 and sell when he gets back to something more reasonable like 60. Or just hold until the election and cash out for 100

[Thekaspervote]

4. Predictit.org Biden +13

The Economist

Biden: chances of winning the EC 87% or 6 out of 7

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president?utm_campaign

USDornsife 8/29
Biden +14

https://election.usc.edu/

Posted on Sun, Aug 30th, 2020 by Jason Easley
GOP Convention Backfires As Trump Approval Drops With Republicans

https://www.politicususa.com/2020/08/30/trump-approval-drops-with-republicans.html

A new poll reveals that Donald Trump’s GOP convention hurt his approval rating among Republican voters.

ABC News reported on the new ABC News/IPSOS Poll:

Less than one-third (31%) of the country has a favorable view of the president in the days after he accepted the Republican nomination for the second time — a stagnant reality for Trump. His favorability rating stood at 32% in the last poll, taken a week earlier, right after the Democratic National Convention

Moody Analytics has called every election since 1980, less 16 is calling it for Biden. See page 8 of this very long white paper for their assessment of 2020

https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/us-presidential-election-update