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Mon Aug 31, 2020, 01:21 PM

Some good new from Sweden, we have not had a COVID-19 death for 7 days now

This is official government data from Folkhälsomyndigheten, our state health agency

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa/page/page_0/






We still have had zero deaths from COVID-19 amongst schoolchildren (our schools never shut down except for some high schools and most universities)

We have had one death, months ago, of a 4 year old with multiple comorbidities

Zero deaths from 5 to 19 years of age since the beginning

10 deaths total 20-29yo

16 deaths total 30-39yo

so 27 total deaths for the entire duration pandemic for the lower half, age wise, of the population (which is around 5 million people)

around 99% of the deaths were 50 years of age or older

96% of deaths were 60 years of age or older

90% were 70 years old or older

almost 70% were 80 years old or older

26% were 90 years old or older




Still no lock-downs the whole time and I still see almost zero people with masks, literally I would say 1 in 500 to 1000, and so many days I see none as I go around the city. All our friends confirm this, and that is all over Sweden, not just Stockholm. We (my wife and I) are still in the antibody and t-cell count immunity study and so far no drop in either, and it has been almost 5 months now since we were infected (with zero symptoms.)

Also, contrary to a lot of disnfo that I see pushed (especially in the US news) our economy contacted far less than the EU overall (the EU contracted 40% more, and multiple nations contracted close to, or more than double ours), and we are on track to go back to positive growth by Q1 or Q2 2021. The vast majority of our contraction came from a drop in exports, mainly from the supply chain for raw materials freezing up, and also from external demand from other countries diminishing.

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Reply Some good new from Sweden, we have not had a COVID-19 death for 7 days now (Original post)
Celerity Aug 31 OP
cilla4progress Aug 31 #1
LisaL Aug 31 #2
cilla4progress Aug 31 #3
LisaL Aug 31 #6
moondust Aug 31 #10
Celerity Aug 31 #8
jimfields33 Aug 31 #4
LisaL Aug 31 #5
jimfields33 Aug 31 #7
Celerity Aug 31 #9
cilla4progress Aug 31 #11
Celerity Aug 31 #13
Buckeye_Democrat Aug 31 #12
Celerity Aug 31 #14
Buckeye_Democrat Aug 31 #15
Celerity Aug 31 #16
Buckeye_Democrat Aug 31 #17
Celerity Aug 31 #18
Buckeye_Democrat Aug 31 #19

Response to Celerity (Original post)

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 01:23 PM

1. Thank you for the data.

This would seem to support the theory of herd immunity as a viable response?

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Response to cilla4progress (Reply #1)

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 01:27 PM

2. I don't think they got to herd immunity.

Their infections rates were nowhere near 70%.
"Authorities predicted that 40% of the people in Stockholm would get the disease and develop protective antibodies by May. The actual prevalence, however, was around 15%, according to the study published Aug. 11 in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine."
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200813/swedens-no-lockdown-policy-didnt-achieve-herd-immunity

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Response to LisaL (Reply #2)

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 01:32 PM

3. Hmmm....

given all the media about Sweden's failed COVID response (no masking, no social distancing?), what are the theories on why they appear to have overcome it?

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Response to cilla4progress (Reply #3)

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 01:41 PM

6. Apparently Sweeds went into "voluntary" lockdown, even if their government wasn't asking them to do

it.

"So there was a substantial voluntary lockdown in Sweden – yet it wasn’t nearly as effective in reducing the spread of the coronavirus as the compulsory lockdowns in neighbouring Denmark and Norway. Cases and deaths rose faster in Sweden and have been slower to decline."

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2251615-is-swedens-coronavirus-strategy-a-cautionary-tale-or-a-success-story/#ixzz6WidcBIFJ

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Response to cilla4progress (Reply #3)

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 02:17 PM

10. Genetics?

Have wondered about that since the beginning but haven't heard much about it from scientists.

Much better underlying health care system providing good comprehensive care to EVERYBODY?

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Response to cilla4progress (Reply #1)

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 01:42 PM

8. I cannot make that call, as I do not know the viral penetration rate, but here is another article

with some potential good news.


Immunity to COVID-19 is probably higher than tests have shown

A new study from Karolinska Institutet and Karolinska University Hospital shows that many people with mild or asymptomatic COVID-19 demonstrate so-called T-cell-mediated immunity to the new coronavirus, even if they have not tested positively for antibodies. According to the researchers, this means that public immunity is probably higher than antibody tests suggest. The article has been published in the esteemed scientific journal Cell. [This news article has been updated]

Published: 2020-08-18 08:45 | Updated: 2020-08-31 13:33

https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-than-tests-have-shown




Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19

https://tinyurl.com/y5u9vbce

SUMMARY

SARS-CoV-2-specific memory T cells will likely prove critical for long-term immune protection against COVID-19. We here systematically mapped the functional and phenotypic landscape of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses in unexposed individuals, exposed family members, and individuals with acute or convalescent COVID-19. Acute phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells displayed a highly activated cytotoxic phenotype that correlated with various clinical markers of disease severity, whereas convalescent phase SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were polyfunctional and displayed a stem-like memory phenotype. Importantly, SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were detectable in antibody-seronegative exposed family members and convalescent individuals with a history of asymptomatic and mild COVID-19. Our collective dataset shows that SARS-CoV-2 elicits robust, broad and highly functional memory T cell responses, suggesting that natural exposure or infection may prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19.


Also, here is a month and half old article that says back then as many as 40% here in Stockholm may have immunity, warning, it is in Swedish


FHM: Stockholm may have 40 percent immunity

https://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/fhm-stockholm-kan-ha-40-procents-immunitet/



English summary

The corona spring has been long, and it is not over yet. But now comes actually some positive news.

The number of deaths per day remains at a low level, and the number of people who are forced to receive intensive care is steadily declining.

Now there are also new figures from the Public Health Agency which indicate that very many Swedes can be immune to the virus.

FHM’s CEO Johan Carlson tells Dagens Nyheter that around 20 percent of Stockholmers may have developed antibodies. About the same number can carry so-called t-cells. This would mean that 40 percent in Stockholm are immune to the coronavirus.

– It is of course very positive. This gives fairly high immunity values, where we may have up to 40 percent immunity in Stockholm, which is important to slow down the rate of spread. There is much to suggest that it is that way, says Johan Carlson DN.


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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 01:33 PM

4. I am so happy for the people of Sweden

I visited Stockholm and thought it was wonderful. Glad things are working out. A lot of bad press that was not justified. Sorry you went through that.

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Response to jimfields33 (Reply #4)

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 01:38 PM

5. They do have much higher death rate compared to neighboring countries.

NT

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Response to LisaL (Reply #5)

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 01:41 PM

7. True. Every country had to decide how to deal with this virus.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #5)

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 02:14 PM

9. we completely cocked-up the elderly care homes and scattered site housing pandemic control

The vast majority of the deaths (some studies and healthcare professionals say as high as 70%, and this is another area of raging internal debate) occurred in those arenas. The reasons are complex, but we have a much less strict regime of eldercare visitation and worker inflow/outflow than the other Nordics do, plus our elderly care workers are simply of an overall lower calibre than Norway, Denmark, and Finland have. We have haemorrhaged so many nurses, doctors, and higher-level heath workers to Denmark and Norway, as they pay (especially Norway) a lot more. We are spending a shedload of extra money on other social issues, ones that the other Nordics do not have to deal with in such large degrees. It is very much a point of massive internal conflict here, and the very subject of immigration is extremely sensitive and volatile here. The other Nordics are far less welcoming, and far more draconian, especially Denmark. None of the Nordics have the right balance IMHO, but Sweden has by far the most potential damaging issues.

The virus also hit those very same immigrant/refugee areas much harder (mainly due to cultural/economic reasons such as far higher 'big family all living together under one roof' rates, etc etc) than in the other Nordics. Again, we have a far higher number (both as a % and in terms of absolute numbers) of refugees and 1st/2nd generation immigrants than the other Nordics do. In the past 20 or so years, we have taken in the US population-adjusted equivalent of over 50 million refugees. Also, our government (as delineated by our instrument of government, ie. our 'constitution') has far less sweeping powers when it comes to the healthcare system and pandemic control than any of the other Nordics do.

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 05:27 PM

11. Laurie Garrett on Nicolle Wallace rn

talking about Herd Immunity and saying Sweden tried it.

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Response to cilla4progress (Reply #11)

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 06:14 PM

13. another myth, that I have addressed multiple times

So much disinformation about Sweden out there, especially in the US media, some of it just flat out lies. The worst thing that happened to us, framing wise, was when bad faith actors (with ZERO knowledge of what was actually going on) on the RW started trying to us us as a cudgel to beat their enemies in the US over the head with. I have posted so so many updates over the past 6 months, but it often gets lost in the fog, and also many take an a priori hostile stance in terms of anything to do with Sweden and COVID-19.


Herd immunity was never the primary goal here in Sweden. I keep seeing this posted over and over and it is simply incorrect. It has come up over and over again because some officials have started talking about Stockholm (where we live) reaching this level by the end of May. That has been misconstrued by so many to think that the drive for herd immunity is the principal core strategy, when it is not.

Hallengren: Sweden Not Pursuing Herd Immunity

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-04-29/hallengren-sweden-not-pursuing-herd-immunity

Sweden’s Minister for Health and Social Affairs, Lena Hallengren, explains the country is not pursuing a policy of ’herd immunity’ when it comes to coronavirus and that looser restrictions in Sweden are being used because of how long they may have to stay in place. She tells Daybreak Europe’s Caroline Hepker and Roger Hearing it is too early to make comparisons about which countries have made the right policy choices in addressing the pandemic.

Running time 11:20

(Audio at the link.)


Another huge myth, pushed by cheap, shoddy journalism is that it is the Wild West here, and basically the entire country is running around like banshees with zero mitigation actions. This is utter tosh.

see this article for further drilling down:

'The biggest myth about Sweden is that life is going on as normal'

https://www.thelocal.se/20200424/interview-isabella-lovin-coronavirus-the-biggest-myth-about-sweden-is-that-life-is-going-on-as-normal

also

Sweden to shut bars and restaurants that ignore coronavirus restrictions

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-stockholm/sweden-to-shut-bars-and-restaurants-that-ignore-coronavirus-restrictions-idUSKCN2262AX


Now I shall deal again with the very bad aspects of what happened, as I am in no way try to sugarcoat anything


Our large fail, a horrid tragedy (and the main reason we are so badly off in terms of deaths per million compared to Denmark, Norway, and Finland) was our nursing homes and our scattered site elderly care. They account for as much as 70% (there is a shedload of argument here atm, some say it is even higher, some say it is lower, around 55-60%, but certainly it is higher than our neighbour Nordic nations) of our deaths en toto. We (unfortunately) had a FAR more lax system in terms of visitation/protocols and in terms of higher staff turnover than the other Nordics do with their elderly-care homes. Those arguments and finger-pointings are now (and have been for months, even as the deaths has basically slowed to a drip) the hottest topic in the whole country atm. They fucked up bad.

Several months ago, on SVT (our state TV,) a group of doctors and healthcare experts (these fall into the group that say it is around 70% of all deaths) said we if had similar nursing home deaths and overall elderly deaths per million rates that Denmark has, our deaths per million OVERALL (for all age cohorts) would only be a wee bit higher than the Danes. They also said that if you adjust for the vastly increased level of COVID-19 in the immigrant/refugee saturated areas, and make their percentages of population the same as Denmark or Norway (let alone Finland which has by far the fewest number of immigrants and refugees as a % in all of the Nordics, most who go there are only going to immediately flood over the Finnish/Swedish border, as Denmark cut them off down south at the Öresund) that our overall death (when combined with a similar elderly care death rate as discussed above) would not only be lower than Denmark, but would be approaching Norway levels.

They also said that other Nordics are being far more conservative than Sweden has been with their COVID-19 death attributions so all the other Nordics have higher death rates than they are letting on (that war of words has been going on for months, and has gotten REALLY nasty at times, especially with Denmark versus Sweden, quelle surprise), All the other Nordics have a very hostile stance in regards to Sweden in terms of our refugee/immigration policy. That group (the refugees/immigrants) have also be really hard hit here as well, as they do not practice social distancing to a level anywhere near to what the native Swedes do, plus they are less well-off income wise, and also health wise (for a number of reasons.) That is the reason for the lowered death rates when adjustments are made for an apples-to-apples comparison, as opposed to the chalk and cheese raw numbers that are rammed in our face far too often. I do, however have to add, that ANY discussion, as I said above, of immigration/refugee here is Sweden has been a minefield for ages, although the Syrian conflict several years back, finally broke the silence (at peak, we were taking in the US equivalent of 3 to 5 MILLION a month and the far RW white nationalist Sweden Democrats (SD, in Swedish Sverigedemokraterna) were surging towards a historic, terrifying victory, until some of the other parties finally caved in and slowed the inflows and changed the laws (to a point).

(A bit of an aside, SD, whilst hardcore RW, white nationalists, are also pretty much VERY anti-Russian as well, for centuries-long historic reasons that are almost never talked about in the foreign press as well. We do have some hardcore, actual neo nazi parties who DO love Russia, but they are microscopic in size. The biggest, Alternativ för Sverige, has only around 1200 members, most other have less than 100)


more on the false charge of herd immunity being our basic strategy

Sweden hits back at Trump's 'herd immunity' criticism

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/sweden-hits-back-at-trump-s-herd-immunity-criticism-1.1419502

Sweden’s foreign minister Ann Linde has dismissed criticism by U.S. president Donald Trump concerning the country’s outlier strategy to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. “He has used a factual error,” the minister said in an interview on broadcaster TV4 on Wednesday. Her comments follow Trump’s remarks a day earlier when he told reporters that Sweden is trying to achieve “herd immunity” and “is suffering greatly” from not doing enough.

The Nordic country is under intense scrutiny as it continues to experiment with a laxer policy response to the virus despite an accelerating death toll. Restaurants, shopping centers and primary schools all remain open in Scandinavia’s biggest economy. “Some countries seem to think that we aren’t doing anything, but we’re doing a lot of things that suit Sweden,” Linde said.

President Trump’s comments have also drawn the ire of Sweden’s top epidemiologist. “If you compare the situation to New York, where I have a relative working, things here are working well,” Anders Tegnell said in an interview with state broadcaster SVT. Meanwhile Sweden’s prime minister Stefan Lofven has said he sees no reason to respond to Trump, according to Swedish newspaper Expressen. “I have spoken lately to about 10 heads of state and I note that we are all following the same lead strategy,” Lofven said.

snip


The vast bulk of foreign reporting simply ASSUMES that if we were not in total lockdown then that instantly means we are going for herd immunity. That is a pure logical fallacy, one that goes by multiple names: the Either/Or Fallacy, also sometimes called the Black-and-White Fallacy, or the Excluded Middle, or a False Dilemma/False Dichotomy.

Finally, to reiterate, many of the stories I have seen pushed also erroneously try and paint a picture that there are no restrictions (or very little) in place at all (my 'Wild West' analogy above), and certainly do not do any sort of deep, nuanced dive into what actually happened, why it happened, and what's happening at present, here on the ground.

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Response to Celerity (Original post)


Response to Buckeye_Democrat (Reply #12)

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 06:18 PM

14. we never had herd immunity as a goal, I've been trying to push back against this disinfo for months

see my brand new (4 minutes or so ago) reply here



https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=14003515

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Response to Celerity (Reply #14)

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 06:20 PM

15. I was just reading it and...

... was about to delete my reply when I saw "My Posts" turn yellow, indicating your reply to it. Lol.

Thanks for the additional info!

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Response to Buckeye_Democrat (Reply #15)

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 06:30 PM

16. yw, and I truly hope you did not think I has having a go at you, as I was not

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Response to Celerity (Reply #16)

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 06:33 PM

17. No, no... I was happy to read your follow-up post...

... that clarified the situation over there.

I try to keep abreast of other countries, but I'm still guilty of being ignorant about much of it like most Americans. Lol.

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Response to Buckeye_Democrat (Reply #17)

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 07:02 PM

18. My biggest wish for the Nordics is...

A Nordic superstate.

My father (he is Swedish, mummy is Bajan, and I grew up in London), who is a proponent, as is his grandfather, likes the name Nordica.

It would have been (the movement started right after WWII, and still exists) Sweden, Iceland, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Greenland, Faroe Islands, Åland Islands, and Svalbard. It would combine the best of all our cultures and strengths, but Sweden's immigration policy has put paid any hopes for that, I am afraid, for now, and probably for good. That and Norway doesn't want to share their oil revenues, lolol.

A damn shame as we would have had around 30 (actually more than that by the time it happened, probably 35 or so) million people, a HUGE GDP (for its size) insane combined natural resources and wealth, and a global powerhouse on almost every front and level, including quality of life, governance, and wealth equality. We also would have had (perhaps) our own currency which would be partially backed by gold, silver and natural resources components, so only semi-fiat, and thus far less likely to be manipulated via FOREX shenanigans.

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Response to Celerity (Reply #18)

Mon Aug 31, 2020, 07:19 PM

19. That seems like a good idea!

The cultures would still be pretty similar overall, wouldn't they? Similar Scandinavian/Viking heritage, at least, but perhaps separated for too many years?

Still, greater cooperation is usually better for everyone.

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