New Emerson poll out has Biden leading 51-49 nationally.

[Drunken Irishman]

Their last poll a month ago had Biden up 50-46.

With undecideds, Biden leads 49-47, so, no change in margin.

This poll has generally been an outlier but Emerson is highly rated by 538, as they grade it an A-.

Link to tweet

[dem4decades]

1. Well that's not going to do it.

[NewsCenter28]

3. No other president would have numbers this good

in a wrecked economy ravaged by a global pandemic! WTF.

[dem4decades]

4. No other President had the idiot horde either.

[Awsi Dooger]

31. You sound very excited by this

Exclamation point and everything

In other words you held serve

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. Hmmmm

[tman]

2. The freakout comes in 3..2..1..

[Iwasthere]

7. Deserved freakout

If the complicit media keeps trying to make this appear closer than it really is he'll steal it, AGAIN! We're being laughed at because we don't fight dirty, "weak librals".

[LW1977]

19. Debbie Downers are concerned.

[USALiberal]

22. LOL, ok! nt

[Iwasthere]

28. Deserved freakout

If the complicit media keeps trying to make this appear closer than it really is he'll steal it, AGAIN! We're being laughed at because we don't fight dirty, "weak librals".

[Zeus69]

5. Amazing.

Idiot country.

[AleksS]

6. America: WTF. 49%.

I’m not mad. I’m disappointed.




Actually, I am mad.

WTF 49% of America. 2020 is how you want our country to be? You’re telling Trump to “keep up the good work?” W....T....F

[qazplm135]

8. so this strikes me as pushing leaners to a binary choice

because that means 0 percent for third parties or undecided.

Which is pretty much the worst way to do a poll isn't it?

Some of those voters for both side are really either undecided, or third party voters or even sitting out.

Say it's only 5 percent...now you could have a 50-45 race Biden or even a 49-46 Trump...but 51-49?

Nah, that's not right.

[bif]

9. That's pretty depressing

I fear the worse. Sorry, but I really think the 400-pound slab of human gristle is going to get reelected.

[Demsrule86]

13. No he won't. Please stop.

[musicblind]

44. He might if he cheats.

We got complacent last time, and we can't do the again.

Concern isn't always trolling! Even if the concern is unwarranted.

Please, don't think I'm attacking you; I promise, I'm not.

My point is:

This is DU. It's ok to express concern HERE because it won't demoralize anyone. This isn't Twitter, everyone on DU is too motivated to be deterred from voting. If any site in the internet was built for the REASONABLE expression of MODERATE levels of concern, it is the site that exists for the sole purpose of strategizing democratic victories.

We can win this, but we have to be smart about it and take into account (and counter) all information, even information we don't like.

PS. I apologize for using all caps as emphasis on certain words. I'm on my phone, and all though I've been here since 2007, the formatting in this site still trips me up. (I'm sorry).

[regnaD kciN]

10. Yes, that was enough to get 538's margin...

...to go all the way from Biden +8.6 to Biden +7.1.

[ProfessorGAC]

15. Yet, It's Still 7%

This seems an overly dramatic change for Emerson.
I'll wait until their next poll to decide if there is really concern.

[musicblind]

46. But now we need to fight to get it back up to 8.6 and beyond.

I'm so glad Biden gave the speech he have today! That is what we need. We need him to give speeches like that every day between now and November. That earnest — that passionate — that cutting.

Let this poll be added motivation when sharing Biden's speech from today. Let it be motivation when phone banking, when donating, and when canvassing at a safe distance.

[Demsrule86]

11. It gives Trump 19% of the Black vote...no way in hell...and this is an outlier.

[helpisontheway]

21. I'm AA and I feel that way. However, I had two relatives

tell me that they were impressed with the production of the RNC convention. They were also surprised that he had so many AA speakers. 🤷🏽‍♀️ Both people that said they still plan to vote for Biden. However, I expected to hear outrage from them about the fiasco last week.

[budkin]

12. Emerson has been AWFUL for months

Yet 538 rates them A+ and now Biden is only up 7.1. It's bullshit.

[Yavin4]

14. "Biden leads Trump 79% to 18% among Democratic voters"

Is this poll really telling me that 18% of Democratic voters want Trump over Biden?!?!?

Okay. I really don't know about that one. That screams outlier to me.

[Azathoth]

16. Some of us have been saying this for awhile. The polls of "registered voters" showing 15 point leads

for Biden were absolutely useless.

Republican voters vote. Democratic voters vote occasionally. Dems always underperform with likely voters.

And things like the 100 straight days of riots in Portland are ensuring that every single reluctant GOP voter is energized and ready to come back into the fold.

[Awsi Dooger]

32. Those 13-15 point margins are an insult and should never be touted

538 should never use them. They are worse than anything Rasmussen has ever produced.

I have no idea how anyone can live in this country in this era and believe this is anywhere near a 13 point race

The USC Dornslife poll in particular should never be mentioned again. It's like trying to pretend a 50 meter head start in a 100 meter race

[budkin]

17. Read this thread to understand why Emerson is shit right now.

Link to tweet

[Drunken Irishman]

20. Good info. They apparently also use 2016 turnout models.

[Laelth]

18. 49% for Trump? No way. n/t

-Laelth

[octoberlib]

23. This in ONE poll. 538 has Biden 50.2 Trump 43.1

National polls are meaningless when Presidents are chosen by electoral votes only.

[Drunken Irishman]

24. Absolutely false that national polls are meaningless.

Obviously state polls provide a better insight but national polls provide a narrative that should never be ignored. The fact the polls nationally were close in 2016 was an indicator of a more serious problem that eventually came to light on election day - Hillary was struggling to get the votes needed from those who didn't support Trump.

The fact is, if Biden won the popular vote by 15 points, or even 10 points, it's mathematically improbable he loses the Electoral College.

[budkin]

25. The problem is that 538 has this pollster rated A-, so it shifted Biden's lead down 1+ points

And it should not be rated that highly.

[octoberlib]

29. Yeah, this pollster won't include Emerson in his aggregates because of their polling methods

Link to tweet

Trump gets a statistically insignificant 2-point RNC "bounce" according to a new Emerson College poll (which we don't include because of pretty egregious data quality issues)


I don't care about the 538 rating. Emerson uses two of the most unreliable sampling procedures in the industry, then proclaims that they have fixed all the errors with post-processing, even though we know MTurk errors run deeper than that

[edhopper]

26. Considering how far ahead Biden is in the

most populous Blue States Like CA, NY. Ahead in PA and IL, and near tie in TX, FL and GA. There is no way the national vote is this close.

[Tones2345]

27. 538 has issues this cycle...

They're hanging onto land-line phone polling (as is RCP) despite data that there is only a 6% success rate in 2018 - down from 14% in 2016. It's likely even lower now. Phone polling is dead. When they're not including cell phones, and aren't sure of areas as people move and keep their numbers, they're just guessing. 538 has Emerson with a 1.2% Democratic skew, but phone polling is showing to heavily R skewed this cycle. Emerson does include an "online panel", but there are no numbers regarding the panel alone. People laugh at online polling, but when done properly, it's more respective of what's going on than a phone poll ever will be again.

[Celerity]

35. what are these landline only polls that are being used to the point they skew results?

I certainly did not see this on the 538 site.

Also (and I was always and still am a big defender of online polling, and so many on here erroneously think an online polls are some vote as often as you wish or can reset your IP Drudge Report bullshit, which is just ludicrous) you said

but when done properly, it's more respective of what's going on than a phone poll ever will be again.

BUT you also (to bash phone polling) said

When they're not including cell phones, and aren't sure of areas as people move and keep their numbers, they're just guessing

anyone can answer an online poll after they no longer live in the area as well

so that seems a fairly weak objection

[Thekaspervote]

30. Just asking, if you know it's an outlier, don't agree and it's already been posted ,why post it?

Just asking

[Drunken Irishman]

33. Why are you asking a weird question?

What are you insinuating? I posted this literally the same time as the other post, unaware of it being posted. I posted it because, as I did earlier today with a positive Biden poll, this is of interest. I prefaced this poll with some caution because I knew some would react negatively, even though the other poll I posted earlier today is actually graded much worse and not really a reputable poll.

But since you have so many questions on my post, I'll make sure to DM you every time I'm going to post and answer these questions to your satisfaction.

[Thekaspervote]

41. As mentioned it was just a question. If you think it weird so be it

Link to tweet

?s=21

Link to tweet

?s=21

[Drunken Irishman]

45. It wasn't a question.

It was an insinuation that I had an ulterior motive. Don't be an ass.

[Drunken Irishman]

38. lmao why do you lie?

That's so unbecoming. My negative post was literally saying Trump's messaging had failed and you somehow decided to take that as to offering strategy? That's some crazy mental gymnastics.

It's also interesting you completely ignored my earlier post today that was showing Biden up 9:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214001694

If you're going to turn into a creepy stalker, at least don't half-ass it.

[beachbumbob]

37. Per bullshit

[Oneironaut]

39. This election will be extremely close.

I believe that, if Biden wins, it will be by a hair. This will also be true if Trump wins (and I think he's guaranteed to lose the popular vote). Every vote counts now.

This election seems to be on the same course as 2016, so we need more people to vote. Trump barely won last time, and I hope that doesn't happen again.

[budkin]

40. Another explanation on Emerson's terrible data collection methods

https://threader.app/thread/1290338998519463937

[Thekaspervote]

42. Thx.. bookmarking for later .. big fan of the Economist. One of the best out there!!

[musicblind]

43. It's not in the bag.

I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but we gotta fight for every vote.

We need to win every news cycle, control every narrative, and counter every lie.

The other side is evil, and evil will do anything to win.

[RDANGELO]

47. They predict the turnout according to 2016 turnout.

That's why their polls are different then everyone else. 2018 should tell them it is going to be different.

[Drunken Irishman]

49. I think basing turnout models off of midterm elections is just as risky...

There were a lot of polls in 2012 that attempted to do that after the GOP landslide in 2010 and they were wrong. The turnout model in 2012 was more Republican than in 2008 but not nearly as Republican as 2010 and it's why Obama won reelection.

2020 is likely to be a mix of 2016 and 2018. That alone should give Biden the edge with how close the election was in 2016...but it's not a given.

[RDANGELO]

51. I'm not saying they should do that,

but it was a historically high turnout for a midterm, and it was a backlash to Trump.

[Castiel]

48. Emerson is no longer a highly rated poll

They changed how they obtain data after the 2018 mid-terms, and all their polling has been absolute trash since. They recently did a Michigan poll with Trump winning 56% of the 18-29 voting block.

538 really needs to downgrade their rating.

[Blaukraut]

50. No way in hell is Trump going to get anywhere near 49% n/t

[BlueWavePsych]

52. Sketchy methodology.