Data firm predicts election 'chaos' as Trump seems to win in a landslide before losing by absentee

[Demovictory9]

Data firm predicts election 'chaos' as Trump seems to win in a landslide before losing as more votes are counted

https://news.yahoo.com/data-firm-predicts-election-chaos-143620130.html

A data firm is bolstering the idea that Election Night is going to be a nightmare this year.

Hawkfish, the political data agency funded largely by Michael Bloomberg and contracting with Democratic candidates in the 2020 election, is predicting "chaos in America" once this year's presidential votes are in, Axios reports. "We believe that on Election Night, we are going to see Donald Trump in a stronger position than the reality actually is," Hawkfish CEO Josh Mendelsohn said, calling the phenomenon a "red mirage."

That's presumably because Trump will win — "potentially in a landslide" — Election Day's more quickly tallied in-person votes, "but lose a week later" as absentee ballots are counted, Axios describes. Trump is already stoking mistrust surrounding absentee and mail-in ballots, adding fuel to this potentially chaotic fire.

[LisaL]

1. We already discussed this scenario. It is based on a false premise.

Many states count absentee ballots first, not last. So the scenario as outlined in that article really doesn't make sense.

[radius777]

28. They'll also show 'percentage of the total in' and won't color it red

or blue - will likely just keep it grey - until they have enough results in to 'call it'.

The media will be aware of all of this and I think will be careful.

[mzmolly]

2. This is why I'm masking up and voting early and

in person.

I'm not helping that SOB claim victory for a second.

[Blue_true]

18. We have one DU member that consistently pans voting early in a pandemic.

I don’t want even the image that Trump may have won on Election Day to even exist, I want Joe to be the clear winner with tv talkers saying that as more votes come in Joe likely wins comfortably. Otherwise absolute chaos will erupt.

I just don’t understand why people that are insisting on voting by mail in situations where their vote may not get counted hangs on to that clearly problematic mindset.

[mzmolly]

19. Yes voting early if you can

is a good idea, no matter how its done. Also, following up on your vote to be sure it's counted.

We had one mail in ballot (in our HH of three eligible voters) rejected in our midterm elections. On an up note, it made it to the polling place.

[LisaL]

23. People don't want to go vote in person during a pandemic.

It's a simple enough premise. Absentee ballot applications are already through the roof.
I think if people can vote early in person that's great. But lets face it, this election a lot of people will be voting by mail.

[Blue_true]

25. With Trump tampering with the post office, my belief is that a lot of democrats have

changed their minds about voting by mail. I know that as soon as Trump started making noises about mail in vote allowing for fraud, I made the decision to vote early in person and will crawl over rattlesnakes to do that. I, for one am not going to let Trump take my vote away from me.

[LisaL]

26. I am going by what is being reported.

In OH, absentee ballot applications are through the roof. And we are not allowed to change our mind about voting absentee once we ask for a ballot. As for Trump making noises, I couldn't care less what he says.
He is also promising to send election observers to the polling places and so on. He will claim fraud if he loses regardless.

[SheltieLover]

21. Same here!

[DonaldsRump]

3. Let's hope not, but there may be some truth to this

Remember Election Night 2018....on the House side, the "pundits" were saying that it was a disappointing night for the Democrats. Over the next several days, however, the absolute wipeout became clear.

I thought they could count absentee/mail-in ballots more quickly? Certainly others will trickle in, but aren't the vast majority of these ballots received by the election officials days before Election Day?

I think this means folks need to get their ballots in at the first chance they have.

[LisaL]

4. Majority of the states start counting absentee ballots first.

NT

[mzmolly]

7. If they can

get through them all, first. And as you say, it does depend on the state.

[mzmolly]

5. I agree. The volume may be difficult

to process as states normally do.

[LisaL]

10. Well, in OH they can start counting them before the election.

They just can't release the results. But they will scan them and have them tallied up.

[mzmolly]

12. That's a good

plan.

[LisaL]

29. Yes, the absentee will be the first ballots counted, not the last.

Caveat here is that OH allows ballots to arrive after the election as long as they are postmarked the day before the election.
So voting as soon as possible is definitely a good idea if one is going to to vote by mail.

[Thekaspervote]

8. There were some races that were not clear, but the night of it was assured we had won

[DonaldsRump]

17. We had won, but not so much

The night of Election Day 2018 story was that we had taken the House, but not by as much as expected.

However, over the next several days, it became clear we wiped the Republicans out in the House. However, it gave Trump time to get rid of Sessions, and claim that increasing in the Senate was a clear sign of his victory.

Trump will exploit ANYTHING to get ahead, whether legitimate or not.

[W_HAMILTON]

24. A lot of those races that were yet to be called...

...were due to ballots being allowed to be counted if they were postmarked by Election Day -- meaning that legal ballots could take up to a week or so AFTER election day to be received and counted -- and, in some cases, just due to the closeness of the races.

I know some states allow such liberal absentee ballot returns, but (unfortunately) many do not and require that they be received by Election Day to be counted, in which case they should be counted in relatively short order.

[DonaldsRump]

27. I agree, but that's my point

Trump will use ANYTHING to win this. It's existential for him, as he/his family are going to prison.

Urge everyone you know to get their ballots in immediately to avoid this scenario. It doesn't need to happen.

[W_HAMILTON]

30. Oh, I don't disagree with any of that.

I'm just pointing out that most of the states that have more of those liberal absentee voting timelines in place are states that Trump won't be winning anyway (e.g., California) since it usually takes a super blue state to enact such policies given that most states with even the slightest bit of Republican control fight tooth and nail to disenfranchise as many voters as possible, meaning that they have strict absentee timelines (e.g., they must be received by Election day to be counted).

[LisaL]

31. There are also several states that only vote by mail.

NT

[Thekaspervote]

6. Yeah if the media can't make the election a horse race, they'll continue with as many conspiracies

As possible !!

Keep clicking and giving us your money!!

[vercetti2021]

9. I get we need to be cautious

But shit these threads today are just doom and more doom.

[mzmolly]

13. It gives me hope if Trump appears to

be ahead before all the votes are counted.

[stillcool]

15. as if it's not bad enough...

we're getting deluged with various forecasts of hell on earth. I want to delete "poll" from the American lexicon until further notice.

[Vogon_Glory]

11. I question the premise

Despite the hoopla about voting by mail, I suspect that there will be a lot of us Democrats going to the polls to vote for Joe Biden. We may vote early, we may dress in outfits that look like bad mash-ups between traditional male Bedouin costumes and surgical scrubs, but we WILL go to vote in person to throw Individual One out of office. It may be risky but we WILL vote.


And another thing. The people who traditionally vote by mail tend to be much older than usual—a part of the electorate still enraptured by Donnie. If they’re too frightened by COVID 19 or if their mail-in ballots are jacked-with by Donnie’s Postmaster General, it won’t hurt Joe but help him instead.

[mzmolly]

14. Exactly. With the USPS being corrupted

I've changed my plans for how I intend to vote. I've learned that I can vote in mid September early, with my absentee ballot in hand - or I can provide proof of residence at that time. Masks are required, thankfully.

[LisaL]

22. There will be a lot of people voting by mail.

Absentee ballot applications are already through the roof.

[Vogon_Glory]

32. Now which way will the absentees go?

I know that at least a large fraction of the Cult of the Fatted Golfer don’t worry about the COVID virus, but at least some must be worried about contracting it.

[sinkingfeeling]

16. why I will vote early, in person.

[SammyWinstonJack]

20. TN here, voting early and in person.