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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNo tightening here , folks- The Economist's pollster G. Elliott Morris
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
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1h
Trump gets a statistically insignificant 2-point RNC "bounce" according to a new Emerson College poll (which we don't include because of pretty egregious data quality issues)
I don't care about the 538 rating. Emerson uses two of the most unreliable sampling procedures in the industry, then proclaims that they have fixed all the errors with post-processing, even though we know MTurk errors run deeper than that
There have been multiple news cycles this year driven by an influx of low-quality polling data, each time shoring up Trump's numbers and the betting marketsand each time they have reverted to the mean (Biden +9 or so) once we got good online and live-phone data
Y'all are free to include this type of data in your average if you want, but it's bad and we shouldn't treat it the same as eg an NYT or Pew survey https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2053168018822174
I will adjust my expectations for Trump's post-RNC bounce (currently around two points or so, and within the margin of error across surveys) once we get actual high-quality data
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It actually makes a whole lot of sense that Emerson has Trump's net approval above water (& better than his Nov numbers). One thing Pew found when they looked into low-qual data & survey marketplaces last year was a tendency for people to just spam "approve" on a lot of questions
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vercetti2021
(10,156 posts)I'm sick of the alarmists that begin to freak out over a unreliable pollster poll. No fucking chance in hell Trump would be up 19% with AA. No way.
octoberlib
(14,971 posts)Thekaspervote
(32,767 posts)Information to the contrary
vercetti2021
(10,156 posts)I've been keeping count.
Thekaspervote
(32,767 posts)vercetti2021
(10,156 posts)Keep peeps on their feet. Or toes rather. Like I understand don't get complacent but I don't think we are because people who vote are going to vote this asshole out of here there's no doubt about that
Thekaspervote
(32,767 posts)538 Giving Emerson an A- when its polling methodology is really questionable??
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/10/30/nate-silver-making-he-goes
octoberlib
(14,971 posts)to an A-. During the primaries their polling was crap. 538 is still a pretty good aggregator despite that.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)octoberlib
(14,971 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Regarding the spamming of the same response every time I took an interesting automated phone survey yesterday that obviously tried to address that. They varied the ordering of the approve and disapprove categories, along with varying whether the Democratic nominee was first or second.
So the industry is trying to adapt. This was a landline call