A- pollster, Emerson, has Trump "right side up" with likely voters on approval now..

[Laura PourMeADrink]

[still_one]

1. and the other polls below have his approval down

[beachbumbob]

2. almost makes me laugh

[ProfessorGAC]

3. Doesn't This Call To Question Their Methodology?

There are other highly rated, or decently rated polls on 538 that are radically different.
I know Emerson is A rated by 538, but to be this different than other well regarded pollsters suggests something is amiss.
Even good professionals make errors.
I wonder if we're looking at one here.

[DeminPennswoods]

5. Bet it's LVs vs RVs

This is a poll of "likely voters". I'm guessing other polls have not yet switched from RVs. Every pollster has their own method for figuring out who is a "likely" voter. I think generally these LV models tend to capture older, more conservative voters who vote more consistently than younger and/or new voters.

[obamanut2012]

7. Give proof of this or delete your post

It's just misinformation.

[maxrandb]

8. I'm not a statistics major

but I did see in the Emerson release they sent with this "poll" that it was a landline Poll using 2016 turnout model.

I don't think turnout will be anything like 2016.

Like we used to say in the Navy, the word "poll" can have multiple meaning, as in

"The poll was smoking", or "he was smoking poll".

[Demsrule86]

10. The 08 model would be more likely...ridiculous polls .

it seems as if some want a close race, but I don't believe it is close.

[Demsrule86]

11. If it were LV or RV...it would be noted in the poll if you look at the bones...you should modify

or delete this post.

[Codeine]

15. It says LV in the key.

The others mostly say All Adults. Maybe I’m misinterpreting something?

[DeminPennswoods]

16. It says LV on the 538 chart that was posted

Same as it does for the Rasmussen poll. See the key at the bottom of the chart.

[vercetti2021]

4. Goddamn another one of these?

This is like the 6th or 7th thread about this horseshit poll

[obamanut2012]

6. seriously

[Amishman]

9. When you get an outlier from a major poll, I think margin of error

If they get an unusual sample and hit both ends of the margin, you can get funky results like this.

Say reality is 44% approval, 50 disapproval. MoE is 3%, you can get a poll result of a tie at 47% and still be within that MoE.

It IS worth watching the trend though, as this is the poll with the most recent polling period, and we are seeing hot button political topics in the headlines (Kenosha + Portland). One poll is a fluke, half a dozen would be needed to make a trend.

[Demsrule86]

12. Trashing...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. It's an automated response/landline frame poll

Link to tweet

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. More

Link to tweet

[Awsi Dooger]

17. Biden 21% ahead in suburbs but down slightly in urban areas?

For reference, the Democratic nominee has been winning the urban vote from 9-28% since 2004.

The low number was Kerry at 9%. Hillary and Obama had gaps of 25+%

Suburbs have moved from GOP advantage, to even, and now to our side, but 21% is too much