Here's my ranking on every swing state & their chances of going Biden.

[Drunken Irishman]

This is ever evolving based on polls, so, I have the right to adjust this list in the future. But for now, as of 9/1 (based on the NY Times list of Battleground States):

Likely Biden:

Colorado
Maine
Nevada
Virginia

Lean Biden:

Arizona
Florida
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska 2nd District
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Toss Up:

Maine 2nd District

Lean Trump:

Georgia
North Carolina
Iowa
Ohio
Texas

If Biden wins every state that is likely - and lean - he wins 319-216.

I think Ohio is likely going Trump - in fact, I think Biden has a better shot at Iowa to be honest. Georgia is a tough one. But considering Biden's best poll, which was back on Aug. 10th, had him up four, while Trump's best poll, which came out today, has him up seven, I'm going to suggest this leans Trump. Barely. Texas, too, as there have been six polls released since August and while Biden has led in three, his largest lead was only two-points, while Trump has led +6 and +7 in two different polls.

We'll see how this changes with more polling but for now, I feel confident enough in saying these are possible outcomes.

[onetexan]

1. Agree, but i think Gideon has a great chance of beating Collins in ME

& while i'd love GA & TX to flip theyre longshots.

[dawg day]

2. The senate candidates in AZ and Me

might drag Biden across!

[blm]

3. NC is voting Cooper, Cunningham, and Biden. No doubt.

When you start seeing Republicans Against Trump bumperstickers in MY red part of the state, it’s significant.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. I hope - but Trump seemed to out-perform polls there in 2016...

And it feels like a repeat of 2016: very narrow polls, which indicate the state is a complete toss-up.

My biggest concern is that, unlike WI, MI and PA, where he did better than the polls, NC was, in 2016, heavily polled as a swing state (more so than those other three that election), so, I am a bit shy on it due to that reason.

I do think it'll be close - and of the lean Trump's, is likely the one closest to 'toss-up' status.

[StevieM]

18. James Comey cost us all of those states, as well as Florida and Arizona. (eom)

[ooky]

31. North Carolina has some stubborn magats

but it really seems to be a swing state in national elections. I have it as a toss up for POTUS, but actually think the Governor and Senate races will pull Biden across the finish line in this state.

[StevieM]

19. Agreed. I fully expect we will win NC, just like we would have in 2016 had it not been for Comey.

[Tribetime]

4. I still think there was funny business going on in Ohio

In 2016 all the final polls were within a point or two of each other and the exit polls were about 50-50 and yet Trump won by 9 or 10 points

[Drunken Irishman]

8. I don't know.

Ohio broke for Trump late. I think it was momentum that carried him over there.

Emerson did have him winning by seven, and he led in all but one of the final few polls.

[Tribetime]

22. I guess I got to make excuses I live in Ohio and I don't want to believe it

Still remember Obama Biden did when it both times though hoping Against All Odds it happens again🙏

[Tribetime]

26. Rcp. Was 2.2. Emerson was way out of line with other's

Polls...cbs trumph up1...columbus dispatch hillary up 1....remmington trump up 1

[Drunken Irishman]

27. Yes - and compare those polls to earlier in October.

It was an exact flip. Momentum was clearly on Trump's side in Ohio and a big reason Hillary pulled back significantly in the state.

In the entire month of October, and up until election day in November, Hillary traveled to Ohio only five times - and in the final two weeks of the campaign, only traveled there twice.

Compare that to Florida, where she traveled six times in the last two weeks of the campaign. She saw the writing on the wall in Ohio. She put up a token effort because the polls were still fairly close but she knew she wasn't going to win the state or she would have put more energy into it.

[Tribetime]

28. Oh ok thanks......im a drink Irishman myself 👍

[Kathy M]

15. I rarely post anymore , almost got booted of board from posting at all 4 years ago when

I warned Hillary did not have support . I live in county in Ohio that had been democratic for many , many years till last election . From what I saw 4 years ago Trump winning did not surprise me at all ( yes have done a little traveling around country and overseas over the years ) .

The county I live in , its going Trump .

Will leave it there , go back to lurking . Have a good evening .

[StevieM]

20. I hope you de-lurk more often. But I will also repeat what I have said many times:

James Comey dominated that election from start to finish. From launching that bogus investigation, and making it public, to his July press conference, to his last minute shenanigans, he completely destroyed HRC's once solid reputation.

[Kathy M]

29. As time goes I may post more , we will see . I will agree about Comey a little .

To unpack why the shift in parties may want to go back to the 90 's , heck even a little earlier . Bush , Clinton , Bush Yes Obama won for two , next time around were people going to vote for a Clinton or a Bush again ?

Heck I remember in the 90 's losing job due to changes from federal that cut my job out at county , many other changes at federal between Bush / Clinton administration that changed the country and work force . Did not even mention before Bush 1

[doc03]

5. Can't figure Ohio, the only thing is they think Biden will

stop fracking? Steel, autos and coal production are all way down,I don't know what he has done for us.

[Awsi Dooger]

30. None of the foundational numbers look good in Ohio

Too many conservatives and 6% fewer college graduates than the national average. That category didn't mean much until 2016 when there was a decisive split between high school and lower voting Trump while college graduates went for Hillary. The statewide polling erred largely because the pre election models did not differentiate the two categories.

Ohio is the only swing state that had more high school and under (37%) than college graduates (34%) in 2016. Not a good combination for Biden. Pennsylvania is second worst on the list in that category but at least the conservatives are low at 33% compared to 39% in Ohio.

I do not believe Ohio should be a priority. Even if it were somehow won this year that state is slipping away. Columbus is growing but Cleveland (dramatically) and Cincinnati have lost population in recent decades.

[doc03]

32. That worries me though in the past whoever carries Ohio is usually

if not always the one that wins the election. Just hope we break that streak.

[Drunken Irishman]

39. Same was said about Missouri until 2008.

Those stats are irrelevant and don't account for changing demographics.

From 1904 to 2008, Missouri voted for the winner in every presidential election except one (1956). Then Obama lost it in 2008 then again in 2012 and no one expects Biden to win it in 2020.

Ohio is moving away from swing state status...likely replaced by Arizona or North Carolina.

[Mariana]

40. Almost a third of the population of Ohio are Evangelical Christians.

Evangelical Christians overwhelmingly support Trump.

[jimfields33]

6. What's your thought on New Hampshire?

I know you have lean dem. I hope it’s more. I know it was close in 2016. The college students worry me. They voted in large numbers in 2016. This year they are at home. Can they still vote in New Hampshire? Or do they have to vote at parents home or own home?

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Good question...

I do not know the demographics if NH's college population.

But I am confident in New Hampshire. I think Biden wins the state by 7-10 points.

[jimfields33]

16. That is great news!

[Roland99]

10. MI is toss up

[Drunken Irishman]

12. If MI is a toss-up, so is PA and WI.

[Kaleva]

17. Biden has an almost double digit lead in Michigan

"Michigan

Before convention: Biden 50%, Trump 44%
Latest survey: Biden 52%, Trump 42% "

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/01/biden-gains-trump-wisconsin-leads-other-key-states-poll/3455027001/

[Roland99]

23. Trafalgar was one of the most accurate pollsters for 2016/2018

They have trump +2

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/state_president/

[Kaleva]

37. Trafalgar predicted Trump would win MI in 2016 by a bigger margin then he actually did

Other polls taken in Mi showed Hillary with a lead but within the margin of error. Belwo is an excerpt from an article published on Nov 4, 2016::

"Free Press poll: Donald Trump gains on Hillary Clinton as race in Michigan tightens
Todd SpanglerDetroit Free Press"

"EPIC-MRA surveyed 600 likely voters between Tuesday and Thursday for the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. That means that while the poll showed a lead for Clinton in Michigan — which hasn’t turned for a Republican nominee for president since George H.W. Bush in 1988 — the state could well be in play on Tuesday, depending on whose voters turn out."

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/04/free-press-poll-donald-trump-gains-hillary-clinton-race-michigan-tightens/93287658/

And looking at the poll you cite itself, just 5.9% of the respondents came from District 13 which is Detroit and very heavily Democratic. Other districts had response rates of around 7%.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/12_IApGhCQY27OukwWXGnk0MFgfPctmhQ/view

[Roland99]

38. They predicted MI +2 for trump. He won +0.3

Most others had Clinton winning by at least a few pts

[marlakay]

24. Was talking to a friend in MI today

And she agrees its a toss up, said in her area 60/40 for Joe but in rural areas for T.

[SpaceNeedle]

11. Hillary would have won Ohio, North Carolina and Florida the last time if not for Comey

ugh

[StevieM]

21. Yep. We would have won that election in a historic landslide had it not been for Comey.

He completely obliterated her once solid reputation.

People forget how incredibly popular she was before the swift boating began. A few years before she ran for president she was the most popular politician in America, and had been for a few years.

[Wounded Bear]

13. Agree with your "likely" selections...

I think that AZ and PA are more "likely" Biden than "Lean."

WI and NB are probably closer to "Toss up" status than "Lean" IMHO.

NC seems more "Toss up" than "Lean Trump" IMHO.

Obviously, JMO.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. Biden is polling better in WI right now than PA...

In fact, PA feels like the weakest of the Lean Biden states at the moment.

Here's Biden's lead in the last few polls released since the 18th:

+4
+7
+3

He has an average lead of 4.7 points.

The last few WI polls:

+5
-1
+4
+6

Beyond the one poll that has him down, in polls he leads, he's actually leading by a bigger margin than in PA (and I don't really trust that poll that has him losing by one in WI).

[Roland99]

25. Here's my bare minimum Electoral win by state. FL/PA are the keys

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=14003082

[Seasider]

33. This is why I think the debates will be huge in tilting some of these states

[smirkymonkey]

34. K&R

[Lucid Dreamer]

35. I fear the muted trumpets.

There is a pot full of people that refuse to admit they favor trump. That skewed the '16 polls for Hillary. Remember how comfy we felt back then?

I'm skeptical of any good polls right now. Won't feel good till I'm proved a fool.

[Drunken Irishman]

36. The polls weren't significantly off.

There wasn't a hidden Trump voter. The polls just had a significant amount of undecided voters. Trump did win those over Hillary by a sizable margin but they weren't hidden. We saw they potentially existed. We saw that because there were 15+ undecideds/third party out there.

Those voters broke to Trump. That's what cost Hillary.

This election is different. There's not near as many undecided voters and the third party is not doing nearly as well.