Charlie Cook: A Bounce Won't Do It. Trump Needs a Post-Convention Vault.

[still_one]

Key take away:

................

"This year, Trump is an incumbent defending a record, and he already fares poorly among independents in the polls. What’s more, he has been preoccupied with cultivating his base and has done little to draw voters outside of his comfort zone.

Every time I walk through the data on this election, it just reinforces my view that while an incumbent in this deep of a political hole might be able to climb out, it would require a focused and disciplined candidate, one who could stay on message and avoid extraneous fights—characteristics that do not seem to describe Trump.

Until the coronavirus pandemic hit, he was behind yet still polled within striking distance. But the public perception of his handling of the greatest crisis facing our country in three-quarters of a century is not favorable in any way. The tailwind he enjoyed from a strong economy is no longer there, either. His approval ratings on handling the economy are now little higher than his disapproval ratings on that issue. Apparently, the shelf life of a good economy that is no longer good is quite short.

Sure, there are uncertainties about the election process in this unique year, but signs point to a very large voter turnout. Both bases are highly motivated—Trump backers and critics alike—and where there is a will to vote, most will find a way. Besides, only a half dozen or so states will really matter.

Maybe Trump could pull this off, but I doubt it. The underlying factors in his upset win four years ago just don’t seem to be in place. Running as an incumbent is very different. A president who has never received a majority job-approval rating in a major national poll and who has seemingly muffed his greatest test? That is a tough challenge to win."

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/bounce-wont-do-it-trump-needs-post-convention-vault

Registering people to vote, and encouraging people to vote early and by mail if possible is critical

[CaptYossarian]

1. He needs a "stroke" of good luck.

[still_one]

2. hmmmmmmm

[obamanut2012]

7. Seriously, not funny n/t

[CaptYossarian]

14. His making fun of that disabled reporter gave me the ability to say that.

Otherwise, I was leaning toward how you feel.

I'll behave now.

[Skraxx]

27. Yes It Is!

[dchill]

32. Eh, it's dark humor, but it's humor.

[Demsrule86]

15. Maybe he has the stroke without the luck...

[CaptYossarian]

17. If he reads DU, he's a goner.

[agingdem]

3. I remember the Obama/Romney first debate

the consensus was Obama wasn't forceful, he let Romney roll over him blah blah...so immediately we went into the sky is falling mode..after the election Nate Silver said Obama was never going to lose..his numbers were never swirling the toilet... and yes maybe some of the outlier polls are narrowing but Joe is consistently in the lead...

[still_one]

4. I believe most people have made their mind up. The debates become critical in my opinion

because I think they will move those who are undecided

[Johnny2X2X]

5. There are almost no undecideds this time around

Not only that, but Gary Johnson and Jill Stein both played a role. Johnson stole polling from Trump to make it look like he was further behind than he really was because on election day, most of those Johnson supporters from polls voted for Trump.

[still_one]

6. True, and there is no doubt that most that voted third party. or didn't vote in 2016 will be voting

for Biden/Harris

add to that a small but significant number of republicans who have come out saying they will vote for Biden

That improves the odds I believe for Democrats

In the past undecided voters tended to be younger, more moderate, and less engaged in politics

"They're the 10 percent of prospective voters who, with less than three months to go until the election, are still technically "undecided:" They haven't made up their minds between the Republican and Democratic nominees, currently back third-party candidates or, at this point, just don't care. Analysts say there are fewer undecideds this year than in 2016, when a surge of last-minute converts to Trump among them helped decide the election. But it's still a sizable enough cohort—particularly in key battleground states—to potentially determine the 2020 result. "They are a relatively small population but they are certainly enough to alter the outcome," says Chris Jackson, head of public polling at Ipsos"

https://www.newsweek.com/2020/09/04/undecided-voters-were-key-trumps-win-2016-will-they-deliver-again-1526824.html

I think it is quite it is quite difficult to determine that number, and the 10% cited above I don't think is very accurate, because even an undecided voter is leaning one way or another

[Demsrule86]

16. I don't think debates move anyone. People said the same thing during the primary...

but honestly did it make a difference? Also, Joe is a good debater despite his stammer.

[still_one]

19. I think it will make a difference to the small number that are undecided. In addition, it

might have an effect for those who would never vote for a Democrat, not to vote, which would effectively take votes away from trump

[Ponietz]

29. don't dignify that criminal POS by sharing the same platform

[beachbumbob]

8. charlie cook is no friend to democrats and its a tough pill for him to swallow, at least he has

some integrity

[still_one]

10. I don't want a political analyst who specializes in elections and political trends to favor one

over the other

Do you have any links to support your assertion that he is bias against Democrats?

His background indicates he worked for Senator Johnston, a Democrat from Shreveport, La, and also worked for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and the Democratic Policy Committee

[beachbumbob]

12. I have wartched him for years going back to GWB on Tv and listen to his analysis

I place his polling and opinion almost in Rasmussen category

[BannonsLiver]

30. So have I

And if that’s the case, you haven’t been paying attention.

[Indykatie]

25. Charlie is No Friend to Republicans Either - I've Never Seen Him Display Bias Towards Either Party

Charlie's takes are usually on the money so I'm positively giddy about this article.

[louis-t]

9. Good, put him in a giant slingshot

and vault him the hell out of here.

[getagrip_already]

11. It's not about who gets polled, its about who votes.....

And unfortunately, the biggest pool of people who don't typically vote are white males. That's the pool trump tapped into in 2016. Sure, he stole the election, but he also pulled in white male voters who didn't typically vote.

And there are a lot more out there.

Last cycle, nate had a demographic map you could alter slightly and see what impacts it would have on the election results. It showed quite clearly that increasing turnout - even dramatically - on poc or woman didn't really alter the numbers much. Turnout is already high and they don't have much impact in the "swing" states. But increasing white male voter turnout, even slightly, had a huge impact.

We say his base isn't big enough to win the election. But his core demographic is. IF the gop machine can register them and turn them out. The post office isn't slowing down their mail. They are laser focused in their cutbacks.

Beware feeling good.

Turnout, vote, make sure everyone who dislikes trump does also.

[beachbumbob]

13. I look at 2018 as the reference point for 2020 and there is NO comparison to 2016 and what happened

in that election. I do not agree that trump "stole" 2016 as the numbers clearly showed the votes that went to Jill Stein cost democrats PA, Wisconsin and Mich,

[Demsrule86]

20. I think so too...although looking at the numbers, there may have been old fashioned cheating

in rural Pennsylvania...we need poll watchers.

[Demsrule86]

23. I think so too...although looking at the numbers, there may have been old fashioned cheating

in rural Pennsylvania...we need poll watchers.

[getagrip_already]

28. 2018 is not a good benchmark.....

Off year elections always have their own flavors. We got wiped out in the first off year election in the Obama administration in 2010. But that had no bearing on the 2012 potus race.

Sure, we made some notable gains in the house in 2018. But it's apples and oranges.

Remember we lost a net 2 seats in the senate in 2018.

2018 simply is not a good benchmark for 2020.

[BannonsLiver]

31. Says who?

[getagrip_already]

33. google it.....

[still_one]

22. I agree, and I believe we are getting voters registered, and getting out the vote, by encouraging

people to vote early, and by mail if possible through call banking etc.

Those that voted third party or the 47% who didn't vote in 2016, I believe will be voting for Biden/Harris, provided of course that we get out the vote as you said

[malaise]

18. Thank you Charlie

[LisaL]

21. Considering he can't even walk that well, he sure as hell isn't going to vault.

NT

[still_one]

24. I like that Lisa

[Demsrule86]

26. +10000