Georgia poll shows Trump up by 7

[Polybius]

Ugh, while I did expect Trump to squeak out Georgia, winning by 7 makes me worry about the two Senate races there. I thought we could have picked up one of them.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/wsb-poll-trump-builds-lead-over-biden-in-georgia-after-rnc/B7XVX4WYHJG4BIQMVTM2AJEEQM/

[FakeNoose]

1. They're probably only asking the white people again

[Polybius]

2. Let's hope it's an outlier

I'd like to see more state polls there.

[Aristus]

3. "DON'T MAKE ME COME DOWN THERE!......AGAIN!..."

- William Tecumseh Sherman.

[Blue Owl]

4. No need for Georgia republicans to go out and vote for tRump, then

*Donnie's got this*

[nykym]

5. Poll by Landmark Communications

Campaigns and Elections named him one of the top influencers in Georgia for 2013,
calling him "the go-to man for GOP legislative candidates.

[Roland99]

6. RCP showing is definitely leaning trump

altho I'd like to see an update YouGov poll

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_biden-6974.html

[Yonnie3]

7. This was a small poll with a MOE of 4.4

Georgia will be tough, but I would not write it off because of this poll.

[Kaiserguy]

8. I've notice

several polls today that seem very favorable to Trump. Are we being set up by the GOP so that when they cheat they can point to the polls? Or are they just real bad polling? I saw two different poll of PA one with Biden leading and one that claims they are tied. Plus all the talk about secrets voters. From what I have seen Trump supporter aren't shy about there support at least not where I live.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. I'm confused can you point out the several polls that are very favorable to Trump?

Every poll released today, except for one PA poll, has been positive to Biden. Can you point out these other several polls that came out today (and this GA poll was released yesterday, so let's not count it).

[Kaiserguy]

10. The PA poll today along with a report on Fox about Trump

favorability being up and another about the race tightening . (I know it Fox which as a rule I don't pay much attention to but when I log on I have a mixed news feed that includes its. I have been watch polling for a awhile and just don't like the feeling I have. Who in their right mind wants four more years of this crap. Most polls show Joe winning by a wide margin over Trump which is great, and I also realize that polls can be full of it because of there methods. I just think the GOP is perhaps pushing polling that show Trump either tied or closing in to make it look like a closer's race with ulterior motives. I will believe we have won and the nightmare is over when Joe is sworn in. Cheating to win is a given for Trump at least for me. The Post office is a big one and here in PA our side is planning on the majority voting by mail from a couple article I have read . Maybe we have a different idea as to what several means anything above 3 = several in my book and with the GA poll that make 4 item that favored Trump I saw today

[Drunken Irishman]

11. Again, where are these several polls?

If you're going to make a claim at least provide info. You basically have sourced two polls: the PA poll and a GA poll that was actually released yesterday. Where are these several polls that are very good for Trump that were released today?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Every poll is a data point. I suggest you look at the 538 average

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/georgia/

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Georgia has 42% conservatives

I know I repeat this category all the time but it deserves repeating. Unless you understand the ideological math the burden of pushing beyond the barrier is not properly recognized. This is the reason I have swooped up so many easy bets on the Republican over the decades in statewide races where the conservative number is very high yet the betting odds are overly favorable to the Democrat.

Here is the mathematical bottom line. The hold rate among self-identified conservatives in a federal race is roughly 85%. If the conservative number is 42%, then 85% of that is nearly 36%. Look how close that is to the tipping point of 50%, and there is still 58% of the electorate to be counted...liberals plus moderates. The Democrat will receive the typical 90% of liberals but given that reality of 42% conservatives there is simply too much burden to win the moderate category by unreasonable percentage. The Republican will need mid 30s/40 or thereabouts. That's what happened in the Beto race. Cruz won by a few points despite receiving only 34% of the moderate vote.

I'll never understand why this is not more widely recognized. It is all about margin for error. Hillary was incredibly stupid to waste so much time and resources in North Carolina 2016, given the ideological number ended up being 43% conservatives. If she had merely polled on ideology and understood the math as I described above, then she would have ignored that state and shifted valuable resources elsewhere.